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The Washington Area Economy and Outlook

Dulles Area Transportation Association Dulles Corridor Rail Association. The Washington Area Economy and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University. March 30, 2006.

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The Washington Area Economy and Outlook

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  1. Dulles Area Transportation Association Dulles Corridor Rail Association The Washington Area Economy and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University March 30, 2006

  2. The Washington Economy:Current Performance

  3. Annual Job Change1991 – 2005Washington Metro Source: BLS, CRA

  4. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA THOUSANDS Jan = +66,900

  5. Annual Change of Employed ResidentsWashington MSA THOUSANDS Dec = +98,300 Source: BLS Household Survey

  6. Metro Comparisons Job Change 1999-200515 Largest Metro Areas Thousands WASHINGTON Northern Virginia

  7. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change in 2005 Thousands Washington +64,700

  8. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateJanuary 2006 % U.S. 5.1% 3.1 Data not seasonally adjusted

  9. 2004 - 2005 Job Change By Sector Washington MSA(000s) Total = 64,700 (Ranked by Size of Sector)

  10. Share of Washington Area Economy1970-2005 No. Virginia % of GRP Sub MD District Year

  11. What is DifferentAbout The Washington Area Economy?

  12. Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area $ Billions 2005 = $117.2 B, + 8.3%

  13. Federal Spending by Type1983 - 2004 Billions Current $ 2005 = $59.2 B Procurement Wages & Salaries All Other

  14. Annual Change in Federal Procurement Spending Washington Metro Area $ Billions 8.0 2005 = + $6.6 B 6.1

  15. Federal Spending in 2004:U.S. and Washington MSA($ in billions) TOTAL PROCUREMENT 68.6% of the 2003-2004 increase in Federal Procurement nationally was in the Washington MSA Source: US Census, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. The Washington Area Housing Market

  17. Housing Price IndexWashington PMSA4th Quarter Each Year 1995 Q1=100 1997-2005 = +153 % 1990-1997 =+ 3.7 % Source: Federal Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. Housing Price IndexAnnual % ChangeWashington PMSA4th Quarter Each Year 1995 Q1=100 28-Yr Average (compound rate) = 7.0% Source: Federal Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. Metro Comparisons Annual Percent Change in House Prices 2004 –2005(3rd Quarter) Percent WASHINGTON Conforming Mortgages Only Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  20. Metro Comparisons Ratio of Median Value of New Housing toMedian Family Income – Q3 2005 WASHINGTON In 2000 Washington was 2.8 Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  21. Average Sales PriceAll Housing TypesWashington Metro + 119% Since 1999 $ +5.8% +10.5% +13.6% +13.8% +20.1% +21.7% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMonth-over-the-year, All types 2004-2005-2006Washington MSA %

  23. Average Days on the Market ChangeMonth-over-the-year, All Types 2004-2005-2006Washington MSA 37 21 59

  24. Total Unit Sales ChangeMonth-over-the-year, All Types 2004-2005-2006Washington MSA %

  25. Average = 31,400/Year MSA Total Housing Unit Permits 1980 - 2005 Projected Demand 2005-2007 Year

  26. Dulles Corridor - FairfaxEmployment & Household Forecast Growth, 2005 - 2030 THOUSANDS Source: COG Round 7, CRA

  27. Dulles Corridor - Loudoun Employment & Household Forecast Growth, 2005 - 2030 THOUSANDS Source: COG Round 7, CRA

  28. Dulles Corridor - Fairfax& Loudoun Employment & Household Forecast Growth, 2005 - 2030 THOUSANDS Source: COG Round 7, CRA

  29. Looking Ahead

  30. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2010Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC

  31. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) (1) 1995-2005

  32. Housing Outlook for 2006 and 2007 Market will continue to cool – returning to “more Normal’: • 2006 Prices will increase in the range of 6% – 12% compared with 20+% in 2005 • Sales volume will drop back to 2002-2003 levels (98-100,000 transactions) • Days on Market rising to 45-55 average

  33. Local Threatsto the Forecast

  34. Local Threats to the Forecast • Global / National Forces • Labor Force Availability, Quality and Cost • Transportation Cost / Congestion • Federal Spending and Procurement Policy • BRAC • Housing Affordability and Supply

  35. www.cra-gmu.org

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