Outline

1. The role of the Pacificdownstream: EuropeValue of TargetingCarla CardinaliRoberto Buizza Graeme KellyJean-Noel Thepaut

2. Outline • The role of the North Pacific sea for the downstream forecast has been investigated by removing all observations over sea • 1.5 month assimilation ECMWF 4D-Var T511T159L60 • Compare with O-suite • Targeting studies (March 2005-…) Preliminary results • Value of SVs to detect targeting areas • Ultimately, value of targeting with satellite data

3. Synop Airep Satob DribuTemp Pilot Satellite Scatt Experiment Description: North Pacific OUT

4. The Role of the Pacific

5. The Role of the Pacific

6. The Role of the Pacific

7. PACIFIC: NoPac forecast error – Oper forecast error at T+24 NormDiff in RMS Averaged over 50 cases

8. PACIFIC: NoPac forecast error – Oper forecast error at T+48 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

9. PACIFIC: NoPac forecast error – Oper forecast error at T+72 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

10. PACIFIC: NoPac forecast error – Oper forecast error at T+96 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

11. PACIFIC: NoPac forecast error – Oper forecast error at T+120 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

12. PACIFIC: NoPac forecast error – Oper forecast error at T+144 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

13. Preliminary Conclusion • Removing all the observation over the North Pacific slightly deteriorate the day 6-7 forecast over Europe • 1.5 month assimilation ECMWF 4D-Var T511T159L60 • Compare with O-suite • Observations over North America recover the lack over the Pacific: the impact depends on the synoptic situation • See THORPEX picture

15. Targeting studies The key questions addressed in this study are: • Q1 - What is the value of observations taken in target areas over the ocean, and what is the ‘value’ of SVs at depicting target areas? • Q2 - Is the ‘value’ of observation regional dependent? (in other words, what is the value of observations taken over the Pacific for North-America, and the value of observations taken over the Atlantic for Europe?) • Q3 - What is the ‘value’ of different types of observations? • In particular, what is the scope of targeted satellite observations

16. RD SV V 1) Experiment Description: IN 10 ToT Energy SVs T63L40 computed every analysis cycle for 1.5 month IN = All Points over Sea removed but in SV and RD Target-Areas Grid Points = 120 Verification region V and area where SVs have maximum final-time total energy after 48h.

17. 2) Experiment Description: OUT 10 ToT Energy SVs T63L40 computed every analysis cycle for 1.5 month OUT = All Points Removed in SV and RD Target-Areas Point left = 929

18. Experiment Description: Data Coverage Pacific OUT SVIN RDIN

19. Target IN

20. Target OUT

21. Target IN Target OUT

22. PACIFIC: SVIN forecast error – RDIN forecast error at T+24 NormDiff in RMS Averaged over 50 cases

23. PACIFIC: SVIN forecast error – RDIN forecast error at T+48 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

24. PACIFIC: SVIN forecast error – RDIN forecast error at T+72 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

25. PACIFIC: SVIN forecast error – RDIN forecast error at T+96 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

26. PACIFIC: SVIN forecast error – RDIN forecast error at T+120 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

27. PACIFIC: SVIN forecast error – RDIN forecast error at T+144 NormDiff in RMSAveraged over 50 cases

28. Key preliminary conclusions (based on ~1.5 months) • Q1 - The value of observations taken in target areas over the ocean depends strongly on the underlying observations. • If the underlying system has no-observations over the ocean, than observations taken in target areas are valuable, and observations taken in SV target areas are more valuable than observations taken in Random areas • If the underlying system has observations over the ocean, than removing observations from SV or Random areas has smaller value • Q2 - The value is regional dependent: the value of observations taken in the Pacific for North America is higher than the value of observations taken in the Atlantic for Europe • Q3 – No conclusions yet on this point (if results are symmetrical, little scope to target with satellite observations).

29. Value of Targeting the Pacific for Europe