Does anything Emerge? CSS Interaction Task

1. Does anything Emerge?CSS Interaction Task A review on the state of the art in the understanding, modelling and formal description of emergence

2. Why Aims • to define the broad directions which a research program on Emergence should follow in order to deepen our theoretical understanding • to bring Emergence concepts and tools into the arsenal of physical, natural and social scientists

3. What has been done • Call for material/ideas/collaborations via CSS_Ideas mailing list • Considerable reading • Production of a working draft • Preliminary session at the 2004 CSS workshop • Submission of a short paper to the KES conference (Knowledge-Based & Intelligent Information & Engineering Systems, Melbourne Sept 2005) • Main workshop, May 05 • Manuscript Preparation

4. Actual outcomes • A better understanding of the concept – I think so.. listen on.. • Document/Web site open to CSIRO and others, http://www.per.marine.csiro.au/staff/Fabio.Boschetti/CSS_emergence.htm • short paper to the KES conferencehttp://www.per.marine.csiro.au/staff/Fabio.Boschetti/3054CO/papers/emergence_kes_final.pdf • Review Paper Research Program Paper under development

5. Interaction Outcomes • crucial input from Cosma Shalizi and Daniel Polani • close interaction between 4 members (FB, Mikhail Prokopenko, IM, AMG) in draft preparation • close interaction between 16 members at main workshop • Strongly multidisciplinary approach (biologists, chemists, computer scientists, applied maths, physicists, social scientists, and engineers) • Exposure to the “The Pacific Institute of Theoretical Physics (PITP) workshop on ‘Emergence’, 15-18 May 2005, Vancouver, BC” http://pitp.physics.ubc.ca/archives/CWSS/emergence/talks.html

6. Review / Research Program Paper Approach • Information Theoretic • Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction” • Difference between emergence, complexity and self organization • How Cosma’s definition could be implemented and tested on a set of real problems

7. Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction” “The efficiency of prediction of a process is the ratio between its excess entropy and its statistical complexity, e =E/C.” E=Excess Entropy • the mutual information between two adjacent semi-infinite blocks of variables -> • measure of the apparent memory or structure in the system -> • we may think of it as the fraction of historical memory stored in the process which does “useful work" in the form of telling us about the future.

8. Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction ” “e =E/C ---- How to calculate E” Excess Entropy Entropy Density

9. Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction” “The efficiency of prediction of a process is the ratio between its excess entropy and its statistical complexity, e =E/C.” C= Statistical Complexity • Entropy of the process Casual States -> • We may think of it as a measure of the amount of memory required for optimal prediction.

10. Review / Research Program Paper • Generate a causal state machine (CSSR algorithm, for example) • Calculate entropy of the e-machine Cosma Shalizi’s “Ease of predictability” “e =E/C ---- How to calculate C”

11. Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction ”

12. Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction” Given 2 levels of representation, we say one level ‘emerges’ from the other if it has greater predictive efficiency.

13. Review / Research Program Paper What is good about it? • It is non trivial • It removes ‘magic’ from the concept (‘cannot be explained’, ‘is not displayed’, etc) • it is computable (albeit in limited cases) • it distinguishes Emergence from Complexity and Self Organisation Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction”

14. Review / Research Program Paper • Complexity= amount of information necessary for optimal prediction • Self-organisation = spontaneous increase of complexity in time • Emergence = E/C • Adaptivity=Increase of Mutual Information between a system and the environment

15. Review / Research Program Paper What might be missing? • Not always computable • Emergence/Complexity/Self-Organisation are different, but what is the relation between them? • How do we account creation of ‘novelty’ and ‘diversity’? (surprise effect) • How does Emergence arise? • Are there different classes of Emergence? Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction”

16. Review / Research Program Paper • Motivation • Justification for an information theoretical approach • Ordering of emergence phenomena • Drivers and conditions for Emergence • Detection of Emergence • Modelling of Emergence • Research agenda • how to construct emergence • Designing desired emergence properties; • Mechanism for emergence • Boundaries • How we use it Paper Organisation

17. What next? • Finish the paper and submit • Possible relation to UD, Memes and generation of follow up IT? (David Batten?) • Results, tools, insights feeding into CSS projects • Network Theory IT • Model Structure • Delineation of a research program • Detection • Design for emergence • The role of system boundaries • Mechanism for Emergence • How to use it

18. Some Conclusions • Information Theoretic approach • Emergence as relation between levels of representations • Emergence as increase efficiency of prediction • Definition of a research program on the topic

19. Some Conclusions • Did we interact? Yes • Did we learn something? Yes • Did we contribute something useful? • We took a unpublished definition • We challenged it • We planned how to test it on real cases • How to extend it to different disciplines

20. All material currently available at http://www.per.marine.csiro.au/staff/Fabio.Boschetti/CSS_emergence.htm