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October 5, 2013

Energy Flows & Emissions. Diego Villarreal SHP – Columbia University. October 5, 2013. How much energy?. The world currently consumes about 12,700 Mtoe of primary energy . This roughly equivalent of detonating 905 Hiroshima bombs per hour!

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October 5, 2013

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  1. Energy Flows & Emissions Diego Villarreal SHP – Columbia University October 5, 2013

  2. How much energy? • The world currently consumes about 12,700 Mtoe of primary energy. This roughly equivalent of detonating 905 Hiroshima bombs per hour! • Most of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels.

  3. Which sectors?

  4. Country Energy Balance • Simplified Energy Balance USA 2009 IEA – Energy balances 2009

  5. Primary Energy World & Regional • What can you say about these graphs? BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012

  6. Energy Intensity • Energy Intensity = Unit of energy/Unit of GPD • Why do you think this is an important metric? • What does this metric leave out? EIA – International Energy Statistics

  7. Per capita consumption

  8. Issues with current infrastructure • So what is the main issue with the current energy mix/infrastructure? • Environmental: • Pollution in the extraction/processing/burning of FF. • Impacts on human health • Air Quality • Drinking water. • Finite resource • Dwindling reserves? • Cost of production? (We’ll discuss this later). • Climate Change • CO2 emissions. • CH4 emissions.

  9. Where do our emissions come from?

  10. History of emissions

  11. Emissions by country EIA – International Energy Statistics

  12. Emissions by fuel type • Most emissions come from the burning of coal for electricity generation & oil for transportation. • Keep in mind that the pie has gotten much bigger! • In 1973 ~ 14 Gt • In 2010 ~ 30 Gt • What does this tell you about decarbonizing the economy?

  13. Emissions intensity • Amount of CO2 per unit of GDP. • This metric tells you how “carbon intense” a specific economy is. • Many factors play into a country’s emission intensity: • Structure of economy • Efficient use of energy • Availability of low carbon energy sources.

  14. GDP and CO2 emissions

  15. Emissions per unit of energy • Carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed. • A measurement of how “carbonized” the energy sector is. • What obvious trends do you see?

  16. Relating all the concepts • Can we come up with a general equation that relates the different factors that affect overall CO2 emissions? • KAYA identity: • Limitations: • Only accounts for energy related emissions. • Gain/Loss of carbon sinks.

  17. Energy mix in the future • CO2 emissions puts a limit on the amount of fossil fuels that we can use without wrecking the climate. • Eventually emissions need to go to zero. • Because of this, a decarbonization of our energy system is crucial (inevitable?). • What limits us from getting there? • Massive deployment • Cheap low carbon sources • Electricity • Fuels • Cheap intermittent energy storage • New technologies for steel and cement.

  18. Energy transitions • What can history teach us about past energy transitions? • Tend to be slow • Fuel mix has increased with time. • Wood  Coal  Gas? Renewables?

  19. The ages of energy Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 2013

  20. Future Demand & Investment • Future demand is expected to come mostly from developing markets. • $37 trillion dollars are expected to be invested in the next 20 years in primary energy (Citi). • What is happening is substitution in developed markets and new capacity being built in developing markets.

  21. Energy Transitions - Power • Renewables are the fastest growing power source (on a % basis). • By 2016 expected to become second most important electricity source. 25% by 2018

  22. Energy Transitions - Power • We’ve seen dramatic reduction in the cost of PV and wind. • PV seen LR ~ 22% and expected to be between 30-40% in the near term • Wind LR ~ 7.4%

  23. Energy Transitions - Transport • Expansions in biofuel production is expected to happen at much smaller rates than for power production. • Most of all the biofuels are EtOH coming from sugar cane or corn. • Serious questions regarding the energy payback and sustainability of some of these fuels. • Still very small fraction of overall energy in transportation. • Very challenging sector to decarbonize.

  24. Energy Transitions - Transportation • Cost competitiveness of biofuels still a major issue.

  25. Energy Transitions - Heat • Renewables are starting to play a larger role in heating sector. • Most growth comes from OECD countries. • About 8% of total final energy used for heating • Most important source is biomass followed by solar thermal & geothermal

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