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Focus on Forecasts

Focus on Forecasts. Motivation. Context for Proposal. Developing seismic hazard forecasts, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has repeatedly needed to put computational tools under rigorous tests.

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Focus on Forecasts

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  1. Focus on Forecasts Motivation SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  2. Context for Proposal Developing seismic hazard forecasts, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has repeatedly needed to put computational tools under rigorous tests. This experience leads us to “factor out” forecast evaluation capabilities as a common need across geoscience domains to advance science. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  3. SCEC Forecast Evaluation Systems SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  4. Geo-forecast Evaluation Tools as EarthCube Driving Application Development Concept SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  5. EarthCube Development Concept EarthCube development will benefit from specific applications that use EarthCube capabilities. Forecast evaluations “press all the button”, require all the capabilities that EarthCube system promises including access to observational data, metadata management, access to computational data and storage, and others. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  6. Typical Forecast Evaluation Capabilities CSEP Collaboratory Earthquake Retrieve Filter Forecast Evaluate Catalog Data Catalog EQs Forecast Filtered Evaluation of Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Catalog Forecast Catalog Predictions Earthquake Catalog

  7. Geo-forecast Evaluation Tools as EarthCube Driving Application Prototype Concept SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  8. EarthCube Development Proposal EarthCube develops a “Forecast Evaluation System in a box.” EarthCube leverages existing capabilities to assemble from existing tools, and provides a distribution as a Linux image for use by any scientific group. System is lightweight as possible and is improved and extended as it provides value. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  9. 1. Dataset Catalog 2.Transformation Catalog 3. Metadata Catalog(s) 8. Scientific Workflow Execution Environment 4. Forecast Evaluation Catalog E A R T H C U B E I N T E R F A C E 5. External Data Sources Catalog 6. External Transformation Catalog 7. Computing and Storage Services Catalog Programmable Interfaces To External Systems Observational Data Centers External Models Real-time Monitoring HPC Compute and Storage Resource Providers

  10. Dataset Catalog • (e.g. iRods, Replica Location Service (RLS)) • 2. Transformation Catalog • (e.g. Virtual Data Service (VDS) Transformation Catalog) • 3. Metadata Catalog (s) • (e.g. Metadata Catalog Service (MCS), Custom Schema’s) • 4. Forecast Evaluation Catalog • (e.g. Testing Oracle) • 5. External Data Sources Catalog • (e.g. OpenDAP) • 6. External Transformation Catalog • (e.g. UDDI, Web Services Directory Service) • 7. Computing and Storage Services Catalog • (e.g. XSEDE Accounts, Cloud Computer Services List) • 8. Scientific Workflow Execution Environment • (e.g. CondorDAG Manager)

  11. Geo-forecast Evaluation Tools as EarthCube Driving Application Sustainability Concept SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  12. EarthCube Development Concept Geoscientific hazard forecasts have economic value. Find users of Geoscientific forecasts with economic value that need to be improved. Forecast users specify which forecasts need to be improved and provide support to put the forecasts under evaluation. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center

  13. Forecasts Scientists Make Forecasts Users Want EarthCube Forecast Testing

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