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by Gary Burtless Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC

Pension policy in developed countries Assessment of alternative reforms in response to population aging. by Gary Burtless Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. Old-age dependency burden. Immense concern, especially in countries with low fertility - - Japan, Italy, Spain

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by Gary Burtless Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC

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  1. Pension policy in developed countriesAssessment of alternative reforms in response to population aging byGary Burtless Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC

  2. Old-age dependency burden • Immense concern, especially in countries with low fertility - - Japan, Italy, Spain • Narrow focus of concern: Public cost of programs that support elderly • Broader view of dependency: • Aged dependents – 65+ • Child dependents – 0-14 • Non-working adult dependents – 15-64

  3. Age profile of factor incomes /Paygo transfer benefits

  4. Age profile of factor incomes: USA

  5. Age profile of paygo transfers

  6. Impact of aging on tax rate needed to finance paygo transfers

  7. Japanese dependency burden: Alternative estimates of child dependent costs

  8. Japanese & USA dependency burdens: Alternative child costs

  9. Old-Age Dependency Ratios in G-7 Countries, 2000-2050

  10. Old-age pension spending in G-7 countries, 2000-2050

  11. Decline in average old-age pension relative to real average wage, 2000-2050

  12. Poverty among aged persons in G-7 countries, 1992-1997

  13. U.S. poverty rate among aged and non-aged adults, 1959-2003

  14. Japanese dependency burden with faster growth in labor force participation, 1950 - 2050

  15. Estimated change in 2030 labor force under alternative retirement scenarios, selected OECD countries

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