Climate Impact Research in the BSR: State of the Art

1. Climate Impact Research in the BSR: State of the Art Dr. Jürgen KroppPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Structure Climate research and modelling: what do we know? What have we learned? Regional climate effects & consequences: can we estimate them? What are preconditions for good policies? The necessary connection of mitigation and adaptation Conclusion – transition to talk II kropp@pik-potsdam.de

2. 1 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Scope of decision makers: Extremes and their Frequency

3. kropp@pik-potsdam.de * We are here! Eem Holocene Climate in the Past and the Future

4. kropp@pik-potsdam.de T = - 18.6 °C (=1) TT=14,9 °C (=0.6) Mechanisms are clear more than 100 years(some physics….) e.g. Clausius-Clapeyron Law (1834) Stefan-Boltzmann Law: (1879) Example: Zero-dimensional climate model We need: S = solar constant (1340 W/m2) π R2 = eliminated area of solar insolation (R radius of earth) 4πR2 = total earth surface α = earth Albedo εσT4 = Stefan-Boltzmann-Law (SB constant: σ = 5.669*10-8 W/m2 K4) ε: counts for thermal absorption of atmospheric gases

5. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Natural Disasters Increase of big large natural disasters (Source MunichRe): Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 number 20 27 47 63 91 Mrd.US$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704 Extreme weather related loss: ~10% of GNP in industrial nations • There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change, but: • Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes are observed for several extreme weather indicators: • More days with intense precipitation • Increasing numbers of floods in many regions • Increasing wind peak velocities in various regions • Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regions • Increasing damage potential for tropical storms (!) and winter storms

6. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Basic Foundations of Climate Modelling Climate = Statistics of Weather (30yr averages) Structure: Multilayer Grid-Sized Coupled Ocean Atmosphere General Circulation Models (~ 300 km2) (Origin early 80ties) Preconditions Forcing Scenarios: IPCC Storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2) Consistency & Validation: CMIP: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Validation by observation/reconstruction http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/index.php

7. kropp@pik-potsdam.de GlobalScenario GCM T ~300 km precipitation >| |< ~10-50 km Regionalisation global ? local precipitation 2050 climate hydrology Regional Simulator Land use soils/ Geology Infra-structure Global Climate  Regional Climate

8. kropp@pik-potsdam.de b) Model Uncertainties a) Emission Storylines Temperature Increase [°C] IPCC-Report 2001 http://www.ipcc.ch climate scenario YEAR Uncertainties in Global Climate Change

9. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Local Models: why it is so difficult? Downscaling: from global model scale (~ 300 km2) to a regional scale (~10-50 km2) Two strategies: statistical models/dynamical models • Physical representation of processes must be more explicit • Need more computational power and time • Orography must be represented adequately • Boundary constraints (which model?) • Statistical transfer functions do not change in time • “Migration” of boundary inputs, etc. LCM Errors: Statistical (local) models: 10-20% Dynamical (local) models 30-40% Model intercomparisons are ongoing research (e.g. at PIK)!

10. kropp@pik-potsdam.de First Project: PRUDENCE(Special Issue: Climatic Change 2006) Only a few sources of uncertainties were analysed: Radiative uncertainty: A2 which is only one IPCC hypothesis Model uncertainty: subgrid, discretization effects Sampling uncertainty: averages 30yrs Boundary conditions: running under constraints of one GCM Main results: A2, Dmeans 1961/1990 – 2071/2100 Northwards migration of ecosystems Increase of precipitation in the north, decrease in the south, more torrential rain Increase of extreme wind speeds between 45° - 55°N, more north-westerly Faster increase of more hot, days than the increase of moderate days Increase of heatwaves over central Europe Large differences between certain models!

11. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Gaussian distributions of mean summer maximum temperatures as Basle (Switzerland), (measured: 1961-1990, A); A': HIRHAM4 model), 2071-2100 A2 scenario simulation (B) and 2003 summer heatwave (C). DJF and JJA precipitation changes, simulated by Rossby Centre LCM under Hadley Centre (left) and MPI HH (right) constraints (A2 storyline) economic ecological A1 A2 B1B2 globalregional

12. kropp@pik-potsdam.de PRUDENCE Comparison1961/90 – 2075/2100, A2 Hadley Boundary

13. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Recent Statements on Regional Climate Modelling Model outputs commonly have to be manipulated and combined with observed climate data to be usable, for example, as inputs to impact models (IPCC 2001, WGI, p. 743, Ch. 13) We are not yet at promised level where regional climate models can really influence regional policy making (Amanatidis, 2004, scientific officer EC) We cannot calculate robust regional climate scenarios (R. Betts, Hadley Centre, 2006) Regional temperature prognosis for Europe has the largest uncertainty of all continents (P. Stott, 2006) We just understand what we are doing, but our knowledge will remain uncertain (certain climate modellers 2006) Is the demand for more and more „accurate and highly spatial“ resolved models an ill-posed question for the design of good policies!

14. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Yes! It is not a question whether, where and how large a change may be, it is only relevant that climate change comes true! On the local scale this needs an analysis of potential impacts and their associated exposure units and its vulnerability! Good policies needs a systematic analysis of decision lines, Institutional settings, in particular, inhibiting and forcing factors!

15. kropp@pik-potsdam.de It is very likely that CC will increase this problem (cf. 2cd transparency)! Even modern societies as, US, Germany, or France are sensitive against weather extremes, therefore also to long-term climate change!This implies that they are mal-adaptedto current weather situations

16. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Download at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/sciencesassess.htm

17. kropp@pik-potsdam.de CLIMATE CHANGE incl. variability Human Interference Initial Impacts Effects MITIGATION of Climate Change via GHG sources and sinks Expected Adaptations IMPACTS VULNERABILITIES Residual or Net Impacts Planned ADAPTATION to the Impacts and Vulnerabilities dangerous? vulnerable? Policy Responses

18. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Combating and Coping with Climate Change (Post-) Kyoto-Process: Mitigation, definition of stabilization levels; technical solutions, e.g. carbon capturing and sequestration (will be not discussed here in detail!) Improving Preparedness: Adaptation,avoid unmanageable situations, develop strategies to manage the unavoidable ASTRA‘s main issue! Consequences of maladaptations?

19. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Hurricane Katrina, Gulf of Mexico 2005(SS5; SS4 - landfall) 1000km Example of maladaptation!

20. kropp@pik-potsdam.de New Orleans Terrain model Lake Pontchartrain Gulf-Coast

21. kropp@pik-potsdam.de They have had the possibility to know it, but- may be – that the awareness was too low…. Drowning New Orleans by Mark Fischetti Scientific American (October 1, 2001) The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies". New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far...................

22. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Methodological Developments for improvedFlood Risk - Prognosis Ilz/Kalteneck Change of river run-off Return levels for 100yr floods: − stationary GEV − instationary GEV − instationary GEV extrapolated trend, prognostic interval 5 yrs Interval of prognosis for fitting used Data extrapolated Trend

23. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Conclusion Problem of adaptation ist not new, but the view on adaptation changes: humanity now can anticipate disastrous developments! Results from climate models provide valuable hints that adaptation/mitigation is necessary task! They cannot provide information for concrete regional actions, since this lies outside the scope of models! Actions must be developed in close cooperation of decision makers, and scientists .... Implementation of best practices Talk: J.Kropp & M. Stock Closer look and preconditions.... Knowledge improvement Awareness rising Talk: K. Eisenack & J. Kropp

24. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Dr. Jürgen Kropp and Dr. Manfred StockPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research AMICA - Adaptation and Mitigation - an Integrated Climate Policy Approach:European Cities Striving for Best Practice Examples Interregional Thematic Working Groups on Key Themes Related to Climate Impacts: • Flooding • Coastal erosion • Drought • Overheating Approach to combine long-term climate protection and short- and midterm adaptation measures on the local level (transfer of best practice examples) stock@pik-potsdam.de

25. kropp@pik-potsdam.de AMICA Project Partners(http://www.klimabuendnis.org) ALLEANZA PER IL CLIMA ITALIA KLIMABÜNDNIS ÖSTERREICH Provincia di Ferrara Coordinator: European Secretariat Galvanistr. 28, D-60486 Frankfurt am Main Cooperation with PIK for Scientific Support stock@pik-potsdam.de

26. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Scope of the Scientific Analysis • Reasons of Concern - Dealing with Risks under Uncertainty • Dimensions of Scale, Time Delay, Multiple Causes, Feedback and Side Effects • Concept of Vulnerability and Adaptation with someBest Practice Examples: • River Flood Events • Water Management: Droughts and Flash Floods • Urban Planning: Heat Waves and Overheating • Storms, Thunderstorms and Related Events • Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion • Adaptation - Main Findings and Evaluation stock@pik-potsdam.de

27. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Definition: Adaptation to Climate Change Adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate change stimuli, their effects or impacts • to reduce vulnerability • to moderate damages • to realize opportunities stock@pik-potsdam.de

28. kropp@pik-potsdam.de vulnerable IMPACT disastrous impact significant impact minor impact adapted temperature change critical limit Climate Impact, Systems Response and Vulnerability Climate Change System stock@pik-potsdam.de

29. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Types of Adaptation Best Practice Examples Anticipatory Reactive • changes in ecosystem composition, location • wetland migration Natural Systems Human Systems • crop diversification • purchase insurance • house designs • crop development • borrow, change activity • reconstruction, relocation Response to Katrina Public Private • early-warning • building codes • infrastructure • disaster relief • relocation incentives stock@pik-potsdam.de

30. kropp@pik-potsdam.de AMICA: Best Practice Examples stock@pik-potsdam.de

31. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Climate Change greenhousesgas-emissions Adaptability Sensitivity Regional Exposure Potential Impacts Society Awareness & Preparedness Vulnerability Environment Interaction Vulnerabiliy and Adaptation I - Water Management Global Change Socio-economic change • Land use management • Risik management • Lack of Precipitation • Extreme rainfall events • High water demand • High population density • Loss due to extreme droughts • Loss due to extreme floods stock@pik-potsdam.de

32. kropp@pik-potsdam.de stock@pik-potsdam.de

33. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Thematic working group„flooding/rivers/water-balance in urban areas“ First catalogue for adaptation measures(City of Dresden preliminary survey): • Retention measurements in urban areas (using for flood and draughts) • Protection of retention areas for flood events near rivers • Seasonal stabilisation of water-balance (management of groundwater, deceleration in the run-off of precipitation, seasonal water-storage) • Adaptations in landscape planning • Modification of forest structure and new forest areas • Water conservating techniques in the cultivation of soil • Adaptations in the waste and drain water systems as an example for necessary measures in infrastructure • Adaptations in parks and to road-side trees • Adequate treatment of rainfalls in plans for the development of new building areas and new streets • Change from flood protection to flood risk management stock@pik-potsdam.de

34. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Christmas flood Cologne 1993 www stock@pik-potsdam.de

35. kropp@pik-potsdam.de 0373 Flood Cologne 1995 www stock@pik-potsdam.de

36. 150Mio.DM Mio. DM 65Mio.DM 1993 1995 Financial damage of the 1993 and 1995 floods in Cologne • Almost the same water level 1993: 10,63 m 1995: 10,69 m • Same sentivity • But reduction of financial damage by more than 50% ! • Explained to a great extent by higher preparedness of affected households and business companies stock@pik-potsdam.de kropp@pik-potsdam.de

37. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Adaptation - Main Findings 1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts 2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs 3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits 5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes 6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries, regions and socio-economic groups 7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks 8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable (people, regions…) 9. Current knowledge of adaptation & adaptive capacity is insufficient 10. Significant enhancements will result from joint projects with decision making authorities and scientific experts stock@pik-potsdam.de

38. kropp@pik-potsdam.de Thank you for your attention!