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Proposed Changes to the RTF’s Heat Pump Deemed Savings and Cost-Effectiveness

Proposed Changes to the RTF’s Heat Pump Deemed Savings and Cost-Effectiveness. Draft 6th Plan Assumptions April 7, 2009. Background. Bonneville requested RTF Review of 6 th Plan Heat Pump Deemed Savings and Cost-Effectiveness Assumptions

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Proposed Changes to the RTF’s Heat Pump Deemed Savings and Cost-Effectiveness

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  1. Proposed Changes to the RTF’s Heat Pump Deemed Savings and Cost-Effectiveness Draft 6th Plan Assumptions April 7, 2009

  2. Background • Bonneville requested RTF Review of 6th Plan Heat Pump Deemed Savings and Cost-Effectiveness Assumptions • Are More Upgrades Cost-Effective with Higher Avoided Costs? • With A Revised Base Case Assumption for Conversion of Forced-Air Furnace Systems to Heat Pumps, Which Measures are Cost-Effective?

  3. Existing Deemed Savings for Heat Pump Upgrades & Conversions

  4. Limitations of Current Estimates • Based on “calibration” to billing analysis of existing homes with forced-air electric furnaces prior to conversion to heat pumps (w/o PTCS) • All homes in sample were from Heating Zone 1 • Analysis “tool” did not fully reflect impact of colder climate zones nor the impact of alternative control strategies on heat pump performance • TMY 2 Weather Data • Cost data from DOE Standards process, limited (i.e., one) contractor estimates and online prices.

  5. 6th Plan Analysis • 6th Plan savings estimates based on prior “calibration” for Heating Zone 1 • Using current SEEM input assumptions, zonal system “base case” most closely matched prior calibration • Heat Pump w/PTCS duct sealing & commissioning treated as single measure • TMY 3 weather files • Kalispell as reference site for Heating Zone 3 • Savings assume home is fully weatherized (i.e., installs all cost-effective thermal shell measures) • Heat pump & duct sealing cost updated based on Energy Trust of Oregon program data base

  6. Base Case Forced Air Furnace Use Assumptions – Crawlspace Homes

  7. Base Case Forced Air Furnace Use Assumptions – Basement Homes

  8. Heat Pump Space Heating Use - Crawlspace(w/ PTCS Duct Sealing & Commissioning)

  9. Heat Pump Space Heating Use - Basement(w/ PTCS Commissioning)

  10. Heat Pump Conversion Space Heating Savings - Crawlspace(Base Case Forced Air Furnace)

  11. Heat Pump Conversion Space Heating Savings – Basement (Base Case Forced Air Furnace)

  12. Heat Pump Upgrade Savings(Base Case HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 w/o PTCS Duct Sealing & Commissioning

  13. Revised Conversion and Upgrade Cost Estimate • Energy Trust Data Base • 1260 Heat Pump Upgrades • 610 Heat Pump Replacements • Regression Analysis Using Size, HSPF, SEER and “Replacement/Upgrade” as Independent Variables

  14. Regression Results ( R2 =0.37) *All coefficients significant at the 95% level, except HSFP which is significant at the 80% level.

  15. Heat Pump Cost Regression vs. Reported Cost

  16. Heat Pump Conversion and Upgrade Cost

  17. Findings – The Good News • All Single Family and Manufactured Home Heat Pump Efficiency Upgrades to HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 and HSPF 9.0/SEER 14 with PTCS Duct Sealing and Commissioning are cost-effective in all zones. • All Single Family and Manufactured Home Conversions to HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 and HSPF 9.0/SEER 14 with PTCS Duct Sealing and Commissioning are cost-effective in all zones for homes with exterior duct work, i.e., crawlspaces.

  18. Findings – The Bad News • No Single Family Conversions to HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 or HSPF 9.0/SEER 14 are cost-effective in any zones for homes with interior duct work, i.e., basements/half basements.

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