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Demographics, Labor Markets and Globalization: Trends Affecting College Opportunity Yes We Must Coalition Washington, DC March 18, 2011 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst,
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Demographics, Labor Markets and Globalization: Trends Affecting College Opportunity Yes We Must Coalition Washington, DC March 18, 2011 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst, Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY Intro
Overview • Three Parameters of Public Policy • Progressive and Regressive Policy Eras • Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift
Three Parameters of Public Policy Demographic Change Labor Market Change Globalization
Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2003
Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2007
Change in Tertiary Type A Degree Attain. Rates 25034 yr olds OECD & Partner countries 2000-07
Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2010
Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2020
Three Foundations of Public Policy • Progressive and Regressive Policy Eras • Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift
Policy Eras in the United States • 1862 to 1980: The Progressive Policy Era: • Morrill Land Grant Act created state universities • Teachers colleges for universal K-12 education • Community colleges • Need-based financial aid for students • GI Bill for returning World War II military veterans • Supportive services for students • 1980 to Present: The Regressive Policy Era: • Federal shift from grants to loans, abandon needs-test • State reduction in higher education investment efforts • State shift from need-based grants to merit scholarships • Universities and colleges lust for prestige and revenue
Distribution of Revenue Sources for Financing Higher Education
Share of Federal Student Fin Aid Based on Financial Need 1964-2009
State Fiscal Support for Operating Expenses FY1961 to FY2011
State Fiscal Support Operating Expenses Higher Ed per $1000 Personal Inc FY2010
Change in State Fiscal Support per $1000 State Personal Inc FY1980-FY2010
Ntl Average Resident Undergrad Tuition – Required Fees Public Inst
Share of State Student Financial Aid Based on Financial Need 1982-2008
Financial Aid Resources Recvd Full-time, full-yr depend undergrads 1 Institution 2007-08
Financial Resources & Barriers full-time, full-yr depend undergrad 1 Institution 2007-08
Mean Unmet Financial Need by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008
Mean Student Work/Loan Burden by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008
Mean Net Price to Family by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008
Three Foundations of Public Policy • Progressive and Regressive Policy Eras • Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift
Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift • Redistribution of college enrollments • Stagnation in college participation rates • Growth in bachelor’s degree attainment mainly in the • inherited privilege classes • Growing gaps in educational attainment between shrinking • majority and growing minority populations • Growing income inequality—higher education is an “engine • of division”
Distribution of Dependent 18 to 24 Year Old Enrollment-Inst Level & Family Income 2009
Estimated Bach Degree Completion Rates Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles…
Estimated Baccalaureate Degree Attain. By Age 24-Family IncQuartile