The Determinants of Interest Rates: Competing Ideas

1. 5 The Determinants of Interest Rates: Competing Ideas C h a p t e r Money and Capital Markets Financial Institutions and Instruments in a Global Marketplace Eighth Edition Peter S. Rose McGraw Hill / Irwin Slides by Yee-Tien (Ted) Fu

2.  Learning Objectives  • To understand the important roles and functions that interest rates perform within the economy and the financial system. • To explore the most important ideas about the determinants of interest rates and asset prices. • To identify the key forces that economists believe set market interest rates and asset prices into motion.

3. Introduction • The acts of saving and lending, and borrowing and investing, are significantly influenced by and tied together by the interest rate. • The interest rate is the price a borrower must pay to secure scarce loanable funds from a lender for an agreed-upon time period.

4. Functions of the Interest Rate in the Economy • The interest rate helps guarantee that current savings will flow into investment to promote economic growth. • It rations the available supply of credit, generally providing loanable funds to those investment projects with the highest return. • It brings the supply of money into balance with the public’s demand for money.

5. Functions of the Interest Rate in the Economy • The interest rate serves as an important tool for government policy through its influence on the volume of savings and investment.

6. The Classical Theory of Interest Rates • The classical theory argues that the rate of interest is determined by two forces: • the supply of savings, derived mainly from households, and • the demand for investment capital, coming mainly from the business sector.

7. The Classical Theory of Interest Rates Household Savings • Current household savings equal the difference between current income and current consumption expenditures. • Individuals prefer current over future consumption, and the payment of interest is a reward for waiting. • Higher interest rates encourage the substitution of current saving for current consumption.

8. Interest Rate r2  r1  Current Saving S1 S2 The Classical Theory of Interest Rates The Substitution Effect Relating Savings and Interest Rates

9. The Classical Theory of Interest Rates Business and Government Savings • Most businesses hold savings balances in the form of retained earnings, the amount of which is determined principally by business profits, and to a lesser extent, by interest rates. • Income flows in the economy and the pacing of government spending programs are the dominant factors affecting government savings (budget surplus).

10. The Classical Theory of Interest Rates The Demand for Investment Funds • Gross business investment equals the sum of replacement investment and net investment. • The investment decision-making process typically involves the calculation of a project’s expected internal rate of return, and the comparison of that expected return with the anticipated returns of alternative projects, as well as with market interest rates.

11. Expected Internal Rates of Return on Alternative Investment Projects A 15% – acceptable B 12% – acceptable Cost of Capital Funds = 10% C 10% C 10% – indifferent D 8% D 8% E 7% E 7% unprofitable unprofitable Dollar Cost of Investment Projects The Classical Theory of Interest Rates The Cost of Capital and the Investment Decision

12. Interest Rate r2  r1  Investment Spending I2 I1 The Classical Theory of Interest Rates The Investment Demand Schedule In the Classical Theory of Interest Rates

13. Interest Rate Investment Savings rE  Savings & Investment QE The Classical Theory of Interest Rates The Equilibrium Rate of Interest In the Classical Theory of Interest Rates

14. The Classical Theory of Interest Rates Limitations • Factors other than savings and investment that affect interest rates are ignored. For example, many financial institutions can “create” money today by making loans to the public. • Today, economists recognize that income is more important than interest rates in determining the volume of savings.

15. The Classical Theory of Interest Rates • In addition to the business sector, both consumers and governments are also important borrowers today. Limitations … continued

16. The Liquidity Preference (Cash Balances) Theory of Interest Rates • The liquidity preference (or cash balances) theory of interest rates is a short-term theory that was developed for explaining near-term changes in interest rates, and hence, is more relevant for policymakers. • According to the theory, the rate of interest is the payment to money (cash balances) holders for the use of their scarce resource (liquidity), by those who demand liquidity (i.e. money or cash balances).

17. The Liquidity Preference (Cash Balances) Theory of Interest Rates • The demand for liquidity stems from: • the transactions motive - the purchase of goods and services • the precautionary motive - to cope with future emergencies and extraordinary expenses • the speculative motive - a rise in interest rates results in lower bond prices •  and  depend on the level of national income, business sales, and prices (but not interest rates). So, demand due to  and  is fixed in the short term.

18. Interest Rate  : transactions demand  : precautionary demand  : speculative demand Total Demand = ++ r  +  Quantity of Money / Cash Balances K Q The Liquidity Preference (Cash Balances) Theory of Interest Rates The Total Demand for Money or Cash Balances in the Economy

19. The Liquidity Preference (Cash Balances) Theory of Interest Rates • In modern economies, the money supply is controlled, or at least closely regulated, by the government. • The supply of money (cash balances) is often assumed to be inelastic with respect to interest rates, since government decisions concerning the size of the money supply should presumably be guided by public welfare.

20. Interest Rate Money Supply rE  Total Demand Quantity of Money / Cash Balances QE The Liquidity Preference (Cash Balances) Theory of Interest Rates The Equilibrium Interest Rate In the Liquidity Preference Theory

21. The Liquidity Preference (Cash Balances) Theory of Interest Rates Limitations • The liquidity preference theory is a short-term approach. In the longer term, the assumption that income remains stable does not hold. • Only the supply and demand for money is considered. A more comprehensive view that considers the supply and demand for credit by all actors in the financial system - businesses, households, and governments - is needed.

22. The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest • The popular loanable funds theory argues that the risk-free interest rate is determined by the interplay of two forces: • the demand for credit (loanable funds) by domestic businesses, consumers, and governments, as well as foreign borrowers • the supply of loanable funds from domestic savings, dishoarding of money balances, money creation by the banking system, as well as foreign lending

23. The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest The Demand for Loanable Funds • Consumer (household) demand is relatively inelastic with respect to the rate of interest. • Domestic business demand increases as the rate of interest falls. • Government demand does not depend significantly upon the level of interest rates. • Foreign demand is sensitive to the spread between domestic and foreign interest rates.

24. Interest Rate Total Demand = Dconsumer + Dbusiness + Dgovernment + Dforeign Amount of Loanable Funds The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest Total Demand for Loanable Funds (Credit)

25. The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest The Supply of Loanable Funds • Domestic Savings. The net effect of income, substitution, and wealth effects is a relatively interest-inelastic supply of savings curve. • Dishoarding of Money Balances. When individuals and businesses dispose of their excess cash holdings, the supply of loanable funds available to others is increased

26. The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest • Creation of Credit by the Domestic Banking System. Commercial banks and nonbank thrift institutions offering payments accounts can create credit by lending and investing their excess reserves. • Foreign lending is sensitive to the spread between domestic and foreign interest rates. The Supply of Loanable Funds … continued

27. Interest Rate Total Supply = domestic savings + newly created money + foreign lending – hoarding demand Amount of Loanable Funds The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest Total Supply of Loanable Funds (Credit)

28. Interest Rate Supply rE  Demand Amount of Loanable Funds QE The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest The Equilibrium Interest Rate

29. The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest • At equilibrium: • Planned savings = planned investment across the whole economic system • Money supply = money demand • Supply of loanable funds = demand for loanable funds • Net foreign demand for loanable funds = net exports

30. The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest • Interest rates will be stable only when the economy, money market, loanable funds market, and foreign currency markets are simultaneously in equilibrium.

31. The Rational Expectations Theory of Interest • The rational expectations theory builds on a growing body of research evidence that the money and capital markets are highly efficient in digesting new information that affects interest rates and security prices.

32. Interest Rate Expected Supply rE  Expected Demand Amount of Loanable Funds QE The Rational Expectations Theory of Interest • The public forms rational and unbiased expectations about the future demand and supply of credit, and hence interest rates.

33. The Rational Expectations Theory of Interest • If the money and capital markets are highly efficient, then interest rates will always be very near their equilibrium levels, and the optimal forecast of next period’s interest rate is the current interest rate. • Interest rates will change only if entirely new and unexpected information appears, and the direction of change depends on the public’s current set of expectations.

34. The Rational Expectations Theory of Interest Limitations • At the moment, we do not know very much about how the public forms its expectations. • The cost of gathering and analyzing information relevant to the pricing of assets is not always negligible, as assumed. • Not all interest rates and security prices appear to display the kind of behavior implied by the rational expectations theory.

35. Money and Capital Markets in Cyberspace • Many websites explore topics related to interest rates. See, for example, • http://www.lombard-st.co.uk/ • http://www.rate.net/ • http://www.globalfindata.com/ • http://money.cnn.com/

36. Chapter Review • Introduction • Functions of the Interest Rate in the Economy • The Classical Theory of Interest Rates • Savings by Households, Business Firms and Governments • The Demand for Investment Funds • The Equilibrium Interest Rate • Limitations of the Classical Theory

37. Chapter Review • The Liquidity Preference or Cash Balances Theory of Interest Rates • The Demand for Liquidity • The Supply of Money (Cash Balances) • The Equilibrium Interest Rate • Limitations of the Liquidity Preference Theory

38. Chapter Review • The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest • The Demand for Loanable Funds • The Supply of Loanable Funds • The Equilibrium Interest Rate • The Rational Expectations Theory of Interest