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Market Updates and Insights

Market Updates and Insights. Team Vega. August 15, 2012. Indices Rally. US retail sales rise 0.8% Stronger than forecast Job Gains Household indebtedness falls to lowest level since 1994. Positive global news: French GDP unchanged, German GDP up 0.3%. Operation Twist.

theodore-gilliam
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Market Updates and Insights

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  1. Market Updates and Insights Team Vega August 15, 2012

  2. Indices Rally • US retail sales rise 0.8% • Stronger than forecast Job Gains • Household indebtedness falls to lowest level since 1994. • Positive global news: French GDP unchanged, German GDP up 0.3%

  3. Operation Twist • “Twist Shape of yield curve” • Selling $267B in ST securities • Program extended through end of 2012 • The 10-year note has fallen seven times in the last eight days • Keep FFR at 0.25% through 2014

  4. Unloading the Banks • Financials, 29% holdings decrease among Smart Money 30 • Lack of revenue growth. Slowed trading revenues / bad loans • Banks - Macro players in bad economy (Political turmoil in middle east / Japan Tsunami / Euro Crisis) • New regulation – Frank Dodd Financial Reform Law

  5. Eurozone edges back towards recession Eurozone GDP shrank 0.3% over last 3 months Germany’s GDP expanded 0.3% Europe Update

  6. Greece is seeking a two-year extension on latest austerity program Spain is trying to arrange a deal for small savers who purchased risky savings products from losing all their money in bank bailouts. European blue chip companies taking advantage of investor’s search for haven by issuing bonds. Europe Update

  7. Not a good July for China Total GDP growth at 7.6% Asia Update • Industrial growth down to 9.2% from 9.5% • Retail sales growth down to 13.1% from 13.7% • Is inflation the silver lining?

  8. USDA report released Friday gave better than expected results US Update • Fannie Mae does not require extra US Treasury funds for second quarter in a row – is this the end of the housing market downturn?

  9. June 29 2012- UK banks offer to compensate for mis-sold interest rate swaps Banks Gone Bad : Summer of Scandal June 27 2012- Barclays fined for LIBOR manipulation. July 12, 2012- HSBC’s chief compliance officer steps down following US Senate Aug 6, 2012- DFS accuses StanChart of hiding $250bn of transactions with Iranian government. Aug 7, 2012- Lloyd’s former head of fraud and security pleads guilty to defrauding the bank. More to Come!

  10. On Aug 6, DFS revealed it was investigating Standard Chartered for falsifying records in transactions with Iran. Today Standard Chartered agreed to pay $340m to settle accusations. Banks Gone Bad : Standard Chartered

  11. FSA suggests Libor should be scrapped. The Liberal Democrats in the UK are pushing for a re-examination on whether bank’s retail operations should be allowed to market complex derivatives Banks Gone Bad : What’s Next?

  12. Largest trader in US equities (HFT Algorithms) #1 trade market share on NYSE & NASDAQ Mispriced 148 securities Aug 1, Trading disruption - $440M loss Shares down by over 70% Aug 5, raised $400M in preferred convertible stocks Knight Capital

  13. “Realizing the financial markets were heavily influenced by "Greed and Fear" we set out to explore innovative and alternative ways of quantifying human emotion.” "Twitter mood predicts the stock market“ Derwent Capital hedge fund uses “sentiment” as trading indicator New Strategy: Twitter Fund?

  14. Manchester United IPO goes ahead at $14/share Bloomin’ Brands Inc. (Outback Steak House) IPO sells below expected range Facebook to tumble? Not surprisingly, not much IPO activity in Europe. IPO News

  15. European banks continue to withdraw funds that speculate on food prices. Other Fund News

  16. Thank You Closing Remarks ~ Comments ~ Questions

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