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Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013

Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013 THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE IN A GLOBAL (ASIAN) PERSPECTIVE Claes G. Alvstam Professor i Internationell Ekonomisk Geografi Centre for International Business Studies Centre for Globalisation and Development

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Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013

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  1. Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013 THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE IN A GLOBAL (ASIAN) PERSPECTIVE Claes G. Alvstam Professor i Internationell Ekonomisk Geografi Centre for International Business Studies Centre for Globalisation and Development School of Business, Economic and Law University of Gothenburg, Sweden claes.alvstam@handels.gu.se

  2. Development of world imports 1970-2012 Billion US Dollar Source: Alvstam CG (2011) Internationella Studier, Utrikespolitiska Institutet, No 2, pp. 36-40; IMF, World Econ.Outlook April 2013 Rev 130912

  3. THE ’BIG PICTURE’ • The ongoing process of specialization and division of labour within virtually all sectors of manufacturing and services;

  4. FROM TRADE IN PRO- DUCTS TO…. …… TRADE IN TASKS

  5. Commodity composition of world tradePer cent of total commodity value 1950 2000 2010 Raw materials and simple preparations Goods for final consumption Intermediate goods (semi-manufactures, parts and components, capital goods) 50 10 5-8 35 20 15-17 15 70 75-80 _____ ______ _______ 100 100 100

  6. Commodity composition of world tradePer cent of total commodity value 1950 2000 2010 Raw materials and simple preparations Goods for final consumption Intermediate goods (semi-manufactures, parts and components, capital goods) 50 10 5-8 35 20 15-17 15 70 75-80 _____ ______ _______ 100 100 100

  7. THE ’BIG PICTURE’ • Den fortgående specialiseringen och arbetsdelningen inom i stort sett alla varu- och tjänsteproducerande näringar • The current challenge to maintain and develop the multilateral trade order; • …..and the ambitions to develop multilateral investment agreements;

  8. THE ’BIG PICTURE’ • Den fortgående specialiseringen och arbetsdelningen inom i stort sett alla varu- och tjänsteproducerande näringar • The current challenge to maintain and develop the multilateral trade order; • …..and the ambitions to develop multilateral investment agreements; • Are regional preferential trade agreements, partnerships etc. stepping stones or stumbling blocks towards a functioning multilateral trade and investment order?

  9. The emergence of regional preferential trade agreements – not least in Asia Source: WTO, adapted by Lindberg and Alvstam, 2012

  10. DIRECTOR-GENERALRoberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, WTO Director-GeneralRoberto Azevêdo is the sixth Director-General of the WTO. His appointment took effect on 1 September 2013 for a four-year term. ’The multilateral trading system remains the best defence against protectionism and the strongest force for growth, recovery and development ….yet as I take on this role, it is clear that the system is in trouble ….the perception in the world is that we have forgotten how to negotiate. The perception is ineffectiveness, the perception is paralysis….. The world would not wait for the WTO indefinitely.’ (Debut address to WTO member states, September, 2013)

  11. The Transatlantic Trade (and Investment) in a Global (Asian) Context USA EU 27 TTIP

  12. The Transatlantic Trade (and Investment) in a Global (Asian) Context CANADA TPP TPP (Parts of) ASIA USA EU 27 TTIP TPP TPP (Parts of) LAT.AMER. TPP

  13. WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012 98 116 Japan 167 EUROPE incl CIS 53 units 6861 (4910) USA+CANADA 2844 (586) JAPAN 886 484 91 OTHER ASIA 35 units 4988 (1975) 537 840 330 714 391 Other Asia 814 LA 34 165 18 SSA 59 357 255 636 504 Aus+NZ 17 126 155 60 393 MENA 23 units 1004 (157) 385 102 MENA 174 US+CDN 27 LATIN AMERICA 36 units 1180 (236) 32 296 SUB.SAH AFRICA 46 units 380 (48) Lat.amer. 36 9 32 91 217 184 Asia incl. Japan 300 15 164 170 (incl Japan) 170 140 incl. Japan 25 14 317 (14) Eur 16 Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc) 62 MENA+SSA NA+LA 46 18 AUS+NZ CGA 130821

  14. WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012 98 116 Japan 167 EUROPE incl CIS 53 units 6861 (4910) USA+CANADA 2844 (586) JAPAN 886 484 91 OTHER ASIA 35 units 4988 (1975) 537 840 330 714 391 Other Asia 814 LA 34 165 18 SSA 59 357 255 636 504 Aus+NZ 17 126 155 60 393 MENA 23 units 1004 (157) 385 102 MENA 174 US+CDN 27 LATIN AMERICA 36 units 1180 (236) 32 296 SUB.SAH AFRICA 46 units 380 (48) Lat.amer. 36 9 32 91 217 184 Asia incl. Japan 300 15 164 170 (incl Japan) 170 140 incl. Japan 25 14 317 (14) Eur 16 Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc) 62 MENA+SSA NA+LA 46 18 AUS+NZ CGA 130821

  15. WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012 98 116 Japan 167 EUROPE incl CIS 53 units 6861 (4910) USA+CANADA 2844 (586) JAPAN 886 484 91 OTHER ASIA 35 units 4988 (1975) 537 840 330 714 391 Other Asia 814 LA 34 165 18 SSA 59 357 255 636 504 Aus+NZ 17 126 155 60 393 MENA 23 units 1004 (157) 385 102 MENA 174 US+CDN 27 LATIN AMERICA 36 units 1180 (236) 32 296 SUB.SAH AFRICA 46 units 380 (48) Lat.amer. 36 9 32 91 217 184 Asia incl. Japan 300 15 164 170 (incl Japan) 170 140 incl. Japan 25 14 317 (14) Eur 16 Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc) 62 MENA+SSA NA+LA 46 18 AUS+NZ CGA 130821

  16. The foreign trade (of goods) landscape of the US • Normally negative bilateral balances; • Trade with Asiaabout 70 per cent largerthantrade with Europe; • Imports from Asiaroughlytwicelargerthan exports to Asia. (2012 figures)

  17. The foreign trade landscape of the US USA 3882 (11%) (X=1546; M=2336) 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA130929

  18. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN 621 USA 3882 (11% of WT) 496 MEX 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  19. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN 621 US trade with NAFTA Partners = 29 % of total US trade turnover USA 3882 (11% of WT) 496 MEX 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  20. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN EU 27 621 (655) USA 3882 (11% of WT) 788 496 MEX EUROPE 42 + CIS 11 US trade with Europe (EU27) 20 (17) % of total US trade turnover 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  21. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN 621 USA 3882 (11% of WT) 496 360 OTHER WESTERN HEMISPHERE MEX US trade with Western Hemisphere: 22 % of total trade turnover excl. Mexico only 9 % 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  22. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN ASIA 621 USA 3882 (11% of WT) 1263 496 MEX US trade with Asia 33 % of total US trade turnover 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  23. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN ASIA JAP 220 621 GREATER CHINA (Mainland+ HK+MAC) USA 3882 (11% of WT) 605 (1263) 496 MEX US trade with Greater China 16 % of total US trade turnover 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  24. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) • Originally a trade pact envisaged by Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore; • USA expressed interest to join in 2008; • Expanded through membership by Australia, , Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Vietnam; • Latest partner: Japan; • Now 12 members 37 % of world GDP; 33 % of international trade; • Ambitions to close a comprehensive agreement by the end of 2013! • Excluding P.R. China (The Elephant in the Room)

  25. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN ASIA JAP 220 Only 27 % of US trade with Asia related to TPP partners 621 USA 3882 (11% of WT) (1263) 496 117 VN MEX MA 45 48 SP BR PERU 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars AUS CHILE NZ Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  26. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN ASIA JAP US trade with TPP Asia ex Japan + AUS+NZ: 4 % of total foreign trade 220 621 USA 3882 (11% of WT) 496 VN 117 MEX MA 45 48 SP BR PERU 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929 AUS CHILE NZ

  27. The foreign trade landscape of the US CDN ASIA JAP 220 621 USA 3882 (11% of WT) 496 VN 117 MEX MA 48 SP BR PERU US trade with TPP LA ex Mexico 1.2 % of total foreign trade 45 2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars AUS CHILE NZ Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

  28. USA and TPP • US total trade with TPP11: 40 % of its total tradeturnover; • Minus NAFTA2: 29 % • Remainingtrade: 11 % • Minus Japan: 6 % • Remaining 8 countries: 5 % CGA 130929

  29. Exports+Imports of United States with TPP partners 1992-2012, shares of total trade value Share CGA130930 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013

  30. Exports from United States by main destination, 1992-2012, shares of total value Share CGA130917 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013

  31. Exports from United States by main destination, 1992-2012, shares of total value • No dramaticshiftduringpast 20 years; • Asia as a whole at a stable rate (around 25 %) • However: exports to Western Hemisphere (up from 17 to 26 % of total US exports); • Exports to Europe down from 27 to 21 % CGA130917

  32. Imports to United States by main origin, 1992-2012, shares of total value Share CGA 130917 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013

  33. Imports to United States by main origin, 1992-2012, shares of total value • Slight decline (in relative terms) of Asia as source of US imports; • Europe stable around 20 per cent; • Increasing shares of Latin America and declining position of Canada;

  34. United States: Trade with Greater China and Other Asia, 1992-2012, shares of total value Share CGA 130917 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013

  35. United States: Trade with Greater China and Other Asia, 1992-2012, shares of total value • Imports from China up from 7 % to 19 %; • Imports from rest of Asia down from 34 to 18 %; • The decline mainly related to Japan; • Exports to China up from 4 % to 10 % • Exports to rest of Asia down from 24 to 15 %; • The decline also here mainly related to Japan.

  36. PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE TPP APPROACH • The TPP members reflect a declining share of US foreign trade (Defensive rather than offensive strategy) • The absence of P.R. China (The Elephant…..); • Smaller ’elephants’ as well: South Korea, ’Chinese Taipei’ • Dividing the ASEAN (forerunners vs. laggards in a potential interregional FTA); ------------------ • Heterogeneity among members (economically and ideologically) • Hurdles in the DDA remain in the TPP (agriculture, GMO, SPS, TRIPS/IPR, state-owned enterprises………… • Controversial investor-state dispute settlement;

  37. Mongolia Macau DPR Korea P.R.China Hong Kong Chin.Taipei Rep. Korea ASEAN/AFTA ACFTA Brunei Japan Russia Indonesia NAFTA Cambodia Malaysia Mexico USA TPP member Philippines Laos Canada Peru Singapore Thailand Myanmar Chile India Vietnam Australia Bangladesh APEC Papua N.G. New Zealand Sri Lanka BIMSTEC Timor Leste ADDING SPAGHETTI TO THE NOODLE SOUP CGA/LLL 071208;080420/130929 Interregional Intraregional Bilateral

  38. LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES ? • Successful completion of present TPP12 talks; • China joins (together with Hong Kong and ’Chinese Taipei’); • South Korea joins as well, paving the way for a Northeast Asian FTA; • Partnership with ASEAN4 is broadened to cover a comprehensive US-ASEAN10 FTA; • TPP constitutes a solid base for dispute settlements of other outstanding issues (e.g. Diaoyu/Senkaku, Dokdo/Takeshima, Spratly, Paracel……..); • Appropriate stepping stone to a ’Doha 2.0’)

  39. BACK TO EUROPE AND TTIP • Defensive and reactive rather than offensive and proactive trade policy strategy (what priorities count by the end of the day?); • Declining shares of world trade; declining intra-trade; • Declining shares of transatlantic trade; • TTIP a welcome counterbalance to the slow pace in FTAs with Asian countries (Korea, Singapore, other ASEAN members, India, Japan…)

  40. EU Intra-traderatio 1955-2012 Per cent EEC6 x 070130 090930 100102 110807 130913

  41. EU27 EXPORTS TO AND IMPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES 1992-2012;shares of total extraregional exports and imports Share CGA130930 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013

  42. Geographical composition of EU extra-territorial exports 2003 and 2012 NA 17.7 MENA 11,9 NA 28.4 MENA 12,0 EUR 18,6 AS/OC 23.8 EUR 16,8 AS/OC 26.0 CIS 10,4 6,3 2003 2012 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 30, 2013 CGA 130930

  43. Geographical composition of EU extra-territorial imports 2003 and 2012 NA 12,1 8,6 NA 18,8 MENA 10,0 EUR 15,0 EUR 15,5 AS/OC 36,4 AS/OC 33,9 CIS 15,0 9,0 2003 2012 CGA130930 Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 30, 2013

  44. BACK TO EUROPE AND TTIP • Defensive and reactive rather than offensive and proactive trade policy strategy (what priorities count by the end of the day?); • Declining shares of world trade; declining intra-trade; • Declining shares of transatlantic trade; • TTIP a welcome counterbalance to the slow pace in FTAs with Asian countries (Korea, Singapore, other ASEAN members, India, Japan…) • The Devil in the details: -- modest tariff reductions to be expected, but also a ’spiky’ tariff pattern within manufacturing industries and agriculture; -- larger expected benefits in reduction/abolition of technical barriers to trade (standardization, mutual recognition, certification etc.); -- higher potentials within services and mutual FDI flows; • A small but important stepping stone to further trade liberalization at the multilateral level.

  45. WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012 98 116 Japan 167 EUROPE incl CIS 53 units 6861 (4910) USA+CANADA 2844 (586) JAPAN 886 484 91 OTHER ASIA 35 units 4988 (1975) 537 840 330 714 391 Other Asia 814 LA 34 165 18 SSA 59 357 255 636 504 Aus+NZ 17 126 TACK FÖR UPPMÄRKSAMHETEN! 155 60 393 MENA 23 units 1004 (157) 385 102 MENA 174 US+CDN 27 LATIN AMERICA 36 units 1180 (236) 32 296 SUB.SAH AFRICA 46 units 380 (48) Lat.amer. 36 9 32 91 217 184 Asia incl. Japan 300 15 164 170 (incl Japan) 170 140 incl. Japan 25 14 317 (14) Eur 16 Total import value 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc) 62 MENA+SSA NA+LA 46 18 AUS+NZ CGA 130821

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