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China’s Competitive Threat A Sector Perspective

China’s Competitive Threat A Sector Perspective. Presented by Mark Killion, CFA Managing Director Global Insight’s World Industry Services. Agenda. 1) China’s Market Size and Growth Patterns 2) China’s Manufacturing Sector, Role in World Markets

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China’s Competitive Threat A Sector Perspective

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  1. China’s Competitive ThreatA Sector Perspective Presented by Mark Killion, CFA Managing Director Global Insight’s World Industry Services

  2. Agenda 1) China’s Market Size and Growth Patterns 2) China’s Manufacturing Sector, Role in World Markets 3) China’s Trading Patterns, Sector Winners & Losers

  3. Manufacturing Sector is Leading Overall Growth(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Chinese Sector Sales – Includes Domestic Sales + Exports) What is the Outlook for Growth in China? Source: World Industry Service

  4. What is the Outlook for Manufacturing Sectors? Growth Rates of Chinese Electronics & Autos(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales – Includes Domestic Sales + Exports) Source: World Industry Service

  5. Growth Rates of Key Chinese Manufacturing Sectors(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales – Includes Domestic Sales + Exports) What is the Outlook for Manufacturing Sectors? Source: World Industry Service

  6. Growth Rates of Key Chinese Manufacturing Sectors(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales – Includes Domestic Sales + Exports) What is the Outlook for Manufacturing Sectors? Source: World Industry Service

  7. Chinese Manufacturing Has Lagged in Employment Growth Rate of China Manufacturing Output Versus Growth Rate of Manufacturing Employment Share of Manufacturing Employment in Total Employment Source: National Statistics Agencies of Above Countries

  8. How Important is Chinese Manufacturing to U.S. Markets? Share of U.S. Consumption of Manufactured Goods Supplied by Imports from China and Others Share of US Imports from Regions, Manufacturing Source: World Industry Service

  9. What is the Size of Chinese Manufacturing Sectors? Source: World Industry Service

  10. What is the Size of Chinese Manufacturing Sectors? Source: World Industry Service

  11. What is the Size of Chinese Manufacturing in the World Economy? Share of World Sales and Share of Sales Growth – Manufacturing Sector Source: World Industry Service

  12. What is Role of Chinese Exports in World Trade? Greater China Manufacturing ExportsPercent Share of Total World Manufacturing Exports * Export totals from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan exclude trade with each other. These are included in Intra-Regional. Source: World Industry Service

  13. What is the Chinese Competitive Threat? Change in World Manufacturing Export Shares (Delta on the Shares: Share at End of Period less Share at Start of Period) 2004--2009: +1.7% 2000--2003: +2.5% Source: World Industry Service

  14. What is Role of Chinese Exports in the Economy? Manufacturing Exportsas % of Total Domestic Economy Sales, 2003 Manufacturing Exports as % of World Manufacturing Exports, 2003 Note: Greater China includes China, Hong Kong & Taiwan Source: World Industry Service

  15. In Which Sectors Are Imports Outpacing Exports? China Trade Balance as a Percent of Total Chinese Sales – 2003 Selected Industrial Sectors % Sectors with Trade Surplus W1: Textiles, Apparel, Wood & Paper (Rising) W2: Rubber Products & Plastics (Rising) W3: Office & Computing Machinery (Rising) W4: Small Household Appliances (Rising) Sectors with Trade Deficit L1: Primary Metals & Non-Metals (Deteriorating) L2: Chemicals (Steady) L3: Communication Equipment (Deteriorating) L4: Motor Vehicles (Steady) Source: World Industry Service

  16. Trade Shares for Textiles, Apparel & Leather (Percent, 2003) How Does China’s Trade Compare to Other Countries? Trade Shares for Wood & Wood Products (Percent, 2003) Source: World Industry Service

  17. Trade Shares for Paper, Paper Products & Printing (Percent, 2003) How Does China’s Trade Compare to Other Countries? Trade Shares for Primary Metals & Non-Metals (e.g. Glass & Cement) (Percent, 2003) Source: World Industry Service

  18. Trade Shares for Rubber Products & Plastics(Percent, 2003) How Does China’s Trade Compare to Other Countries? Trade Shares for Chemicals (Percent, 2003) Source: World Industry Service

  19. Trade Shares for Office & Computing Machinery(Percent, 2003) How Does China’s Trade Compare to Other Countries? Trade Shares for Small Household Appliances (Percent, 2003) Source: World Industry Service

  20. Trade Shares for Communication Equipment(Percent, 2003) How Does China’s Trade Compare to Other Countries? Trade Shares for Motor Vehicles (Percent, 2003) Source: World Industry Service

  21. Chinese Competitive Threat: Summary • Competitive manufacturing threat from China is real • Degree of threat varies quite a bit among sectors • US and Europe do also benefit from lower consumer prices, and by pulling China into their supply chain • China’s competitive threat felt more strongly in other developing countries • Sizable increase in world manufacturing market share still to come • Driven by FDI, MNCs, fast growth differential with rest of world • Sovereign influence on commerce still pervasive, But Will it Slow Growth? • Brutal competition, low domestic price gains • Domestic pricing conditions exported to rest of world • Fast growth and development requires a lot of imports • Domestic demand pulls in commodities and technology • Production requirements supporting commodity input prices • Low Chinese export prices, along with fast Chinese growth supporting higher commodity input prices, will continue to pinch the profits of many western producers and emerging economy competitors

  22. Thank you! Mark Killion, CFA Managing Director World Industry Services Phone: 610-490-2547 Email: mark.killion@globalinsight.com

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