1 / 31

2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics

2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics. Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner KPMG Australia 14 March 2007. 1901. 2001. Inner city. Coastal. Inner city. Coastal. 5%. 19%. 8%. 25%. Rural. 17%. Suburbia.

thiery
Download Presentation

2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2007 National Consumer CongressMapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner KPMG Australia 14 March 2007

  2. 1901 2001 Inner city Coastal Inner city Coastal 5% 19% 8% 25% Rural 17% Suburbia Rural Suburbia 15% 52% 59% Push from the bush • Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century • Provincial coastal culture now ascendant • Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers • Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002

  3. Population and business hotspots • Gold Coast 13,563 • Wanneroo 7,941 • Melton 6,814 • Wyndham 6,660 • Casey 6,429 • Blacktown 4,955 • Brisbane SW 4,839 • Rockingham 4,616 • Ipswich 4,240 • Cairns 4,099 Telecommuting lifestyle towns are evolving at Palm Beach (NSW), Mt Tambourine (Qld), Daylesford (Vic), Birdwood (SA), Falmouth (Tas) and Cundinup (WA) … and this was in 2001 prior to Broadband and 3G technology Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

  4. Why population shifts are important to business 10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg: • 3,700 new suburban households, or • 6,700 new inner-city households • $82 million in new retail spending* • $28 million in new supermarket spending* • ½ a Kmart • One cinema screen • 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete *includes GST Population loss reverses these markets

  5. Winners Losers Our shifting heartland is changing the consumer focus Palmerston Port Douglas Broome Townsville East Pilbara Proserpine Yeppoon Ngaanyatjarraku Hervey Bay Noosa Caloundra Leonora Gold Coast Geraldton Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Busselton Augusta- Margaret River Narooma Denmark Victor Harbor Areas of population loss and growth between 1976 and 2006 Macedon Ranges Sorell

  6. Coastal towns require infrastructure and services Bunbury Hervey Bay 6.0% Mandurah 5.0% 4.0% Mildura 3.0% 2.0% National average Johnstone (Innisfail) 1.0% Population change: 2005- to 2006 Broken Hill Whyalla 0.0% Perth Byron Cairns Dubbo Griffith Ballina Albany Darwin Mildura Sydney Orange Grafton Ballarat Lithgow Mackay Lismore Bendigo Bunbury Bathurst Geelong Adelaide Brisbane Armidale Goulburn Singleton Kempsey Busselton Geraldton Mount Isa Tamworth Mandurah Gladstone Newcastle Townsville Melbourne Nambucca Bundaberg -1.0% Shepparton Hervey Bay Launceston Wollongong Bega Valley Toowoomba Alice Springs Maryborough Warrnambool Mount Barker Rockhampton Coffs Harbour Burdekin (Ayr) Wagga Wagga Greater Hobart Port Macquarie Mount Gambier La Trobe Valley Taree (Greater) Sunshine Coast Albury-Wodonga Burnie-Devonport Nowra-Bomaderry Kalgoorlie/Boulder Gold Coast-Tweed Great Lakes (Forster) Livingstone (Yeppoon) Canberra-Queanbeyan Eurobodalla (Narooma) -2.0% Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) -3.0% Innisfail The driving force for many Australians is the pursuit of lifestyle either on the beach or up in the hills

  7. Household formation, pharmacy and lifestyle drive consumer spending Y/E January 2007 1997/07 2006/07 $b % change % change Supermarkets, grocery & convenience stores 62.8 77% 7% Take-away food retailing 9.4 36% 3% Other food retailing 16.5 95% 11% Total department stores 16.6 43% 3% Clothing retailing 10.5 74% 4% Other clothing related retailing 3.8 53% 5% Furniture & floor covering retailing 7.7 120% 7% Domestic hardware & houseware 9.5 123% 1% Domestic appliances & recorded music 15.4 69% 9% Newspapers, books & stationery retailing 5.3 38% -5% Other recreational goods retailing 3.0 33% 7% Pharmaceutical & cosmetic retailing 9.4 105% 10% Other retailing 12.5 76% 4% Hotels and licensed clubs 19.5 72% 4% Cafes & restaurants 13.0 114% 13% Selected services 2.8 63% 6% Total retail & hospitality 218 74% 6% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

  8. Gen Y Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 2008 82 Child Teen Old Adult 1968 71 Child Adult Old 1928 63 Gen Y is stretching the teenage years 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Change in life expectancy over 80 years Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australia’s Health 2004 (AIHW)

  9. Characteristics of Generation Y • Born 1976-1991 … now aged 16-31 • Often a single child of baby boomer parents • Matured to adulthood in prosperous times • Many live at home with mum & dad • Not committed in their 20s … to marriage, mortgage, children, careers • May turn out to be the “Disappointed Generation” • Different views on loyalty to friends, to workmates, to employers • Prefer ‘deals’ not contracts and ‘mentors’ not bosses • Highly educated, opportunistic and global in their thinking

  10. There is a demographic logic behind the rise of Generation Y … in Australia … 1950 2007 2050 250,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)

  11. … in Japan … 1950 2007 2050 3,000,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 -500,000 -1,000,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, Statistics Bureau of Japan (2006)

  12. … and in the US 1950 2007 2050 Boomer Gen X Gen Y The “Latino Lift” Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, US Census Bureau (2006)

  13. What winning businesses must do • Offer careers within careers • Focus on work-life balance • Engage with staff • Create culture of positive relationships • Transmit consistent messages/values In the early decades of the 21st Century, winning businesses will get their people strategy right

  14. The ageing of the average Aussie bride 35 Bridegrooms 30 25 Xer brides were 29 in 2002 20 Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971 15 10 5 0 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 1981 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Source: Australian Demographic Statistics; Marriages and Divorces

  15. Male surplus Male deficit 30-39 1976 2006 Men 936,400 1,493,100 Women 882,200 1,502,300 Male surplus +54,200 -9,200 1976 2006 Behold the Great Australian Man Drought 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10000 5000 0 -5000 -10000 -15000 -20000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 Source: ABS 3201.0 (2004) Unpublished historical data (1976)

  16. Women born in 1972 have got it toughest • YE June Men Women Male Surplus • 137,000 136,000 +1,000 • 139,000 140,000 -1,000 • 144,000 145,000 -1,000 • 148,000 150,000 -2,000 • 154,000 157,000 -3,000 • 159,000 161,000 -2,000 • 149,000 151,000 -2,000 • 148,000 150,000 -2,000 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

  17. Total Prime Available Male Product 86,000 Less than 6 per cent of men survive the Fella Filter The fella filter • Total men aged 25-34 1,381,000 • Less married 485,000 • Less defacto 185,000 • Less gay relationship 7,000 • Less single parent (baggage) 12,000 • Less men not earning $60k + pa (2005) 568,000

  18. The fella filter delivers geeks and bean counters • Accountant 3,460 • Sales & marketing manager 2,657 • Software designer 2,233 • Applications & analyst programmer 2,148 • Fitter 1,593 • General electrician 1,540 • Systems designer 1,400 • Management consultant 1,370 • Solicitor 1,277 • General manager 1,252

  19. 30-39 1976 2006 Men 190,600 273,900 Women 186,000 304,200 Male surplus 4,500 -30,300 Male surplus Male deficit 1976 2006 Young Kiwi men are not in New Zealand 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 Source: Statistics New Zealand

  20. Out with the Brady Bunch, in with Bridget Jones 1991 2001 2031 Singles 20 24 31 Couples 24 26 29 One-parent family 10 11 11 Mum, Dad & the Kids 41 33 24 Group households 5 4 3 Other family 1 1 1 Households (‘000s) 6,450 7,789 11,580 • Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades • By 2021 ‘families’ and couples are eclipsed by singles – who then pull ahead in 2020s

  21. Baby boomers just won’t die! 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Population 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003

  22. It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 … $40,000 350000 Last 20 years Next 20 years 40 30 $35,000 54 300000 $30,000 25 ‘Rich’ live longer 250000 $25,000 200000 $20,000 70 150000 $15,000 100000 $10,000 50000 $5,000 $0 0 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins

  23. $30,000 4.00 Persons 3.50 $25,000 Income 3.00 $20,000 2.50 Disposable $15,000 2.00 1.50 $10,000 1.00 Rent $5,000 0.50 $0 0.00 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 80 81 82 83 84 67 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 85+ Average rent/mortgage cost Average household income per person Average household disposable income Persons per household … but discretionary spending peaks in the 50s Persons per household Source: KPMG Property Advisory Group; Australian Bureau of Statistics

  24. Big shift in attitudes to retirement next decade 1950 2007 2050 140,000 60,000 Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)

  25. Boomers Gen Y Gen X • Born 1976-1991 • Now aged 16-31 • 4.6 million (ultimately) • Experiential; ethicists; uncommitted to career; relationships • Extended adolescence • Helicopter kids; kippers • Peak income earning 2021-2036 • Technology savvy; global thinking • Inherit boomer wealth • Born 1946-1961 • Now aged 46-61 • 4.1 million • Idealistic; career-orientated; consumerist • Promoted ‘young’ and propped • Peak income earning 1991-2005 • Succession planning, advisory boards, non-executive directors • Inter-generational fight • Born 1961-1976 • Now aged 31-46 • 4.4 million • Realists; cynical • Held back by “old fart log-jam” • Peak income earning 2006-2021 • Assuming positions of high office now • Must deal with baby boomers in retirement Generational traits

  26. Further information & contact • The Big Picture – $29.95rrp out now • Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every Thursday • Bernard Salt’s columns appear monthly in Wish Magazine • Population Growth Database 2006 now available at $495: contact fmevans@kpmg.com.au • Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; bsalt@kpmg.com.au; www.bernardsalt.com.au The information contained hereinis of a general nature and is not intended to address thecircumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

More Related