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Ch. 2 Key Issue #3

Ch. 2 Key Issue #3. Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?. Demographic Transition Model.

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Ch. 2 Key Issue #3

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  1. Ch. 2 Key Issue #3 Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?

  2. Demographic Transition Model • a model of population change where high birth rates and death rates transition to low birth rates and death rates relative (along with) to medical technology and economic and social development. • Based on the shifts that Britain experienced • Population pyramids

  3. Stage 1 • HIGH birth rates and death rates= low growth (NIR) • No countries are in stage 1 anymore.

  4. Stage 2 • Move to stage 2 caused by severely declining death rates + birth rates remain high= lots of growth. • Industrial revolution (MDCs) • Medical revolution (LDCs) • What role does diffusion play here?

  5. Stage 3 • Fertility (TFR) drops, therefore CBR drops= a decrease in growth • CDR drop as well but not as bad as CBR. • What cultural and economic factors play a role in the declining birth rate?

  6. Stage 4 • CDR and CBR become the same until NIR = 0 (ZPG) • Population has swelled in stages 2 and 3. • How does this stage compare to stage 4?

  7. Stage 5? • Could see some countries moving into a new stage 5: decline • CDR would be greater than CBR • Russia, Germany

  8. Why is it important to know? • Countries with high population of younger people have different problems than countries with high old population • We are concerned with spatial distribution (dot maps) and population composition (pop pyramids)

  9. Population Pyramids Bar graphs that show us: • Sex ratio- # of men per 100 women • Age distributions • Dependency ratio- under 15, over 65. • Visuals of the Demographic Transition

  10. Population Pyramids

  11. Post War Baby Boom and Declining Birth Rate. Stage?

  12. Countries in the Dem. Tran. • Three examples: Cape Verde = High growth (Stage 2) Chile = Moderate growth (Stage 3) Denmark = Low growth (Stage 4)

  13. Cape Verde Wide base, skinny top

  14. Chile Slimmer base, widening top

  15. Denmark Slimmed base, widest top

  16. Population Growth and the Dem. Tran. • Population spiked of second half of the 20th century= few countries were in Stages with low population growth. • Most countries are in stages 2 and 3 and only a few will reach stage 4 in near future = increased world population growth • Problem: In LDCs, CDRs have declined with diffusion of medical technology but CBRs remain high due to cultural reasons (religion prohibits contraceptives)– How is this different form the normal “transition” of what the DTM says?

  17. Analysis What can we determine about these countries': • CBRs/IMRs/TFRs? • CDRs? • Life expectancy? • Development levels (MDC/LDC)? • Dependency ratio? • How are all these concepts related?

  18. Very low stage 2, almost reverting to 1

  19. Stage 2

  20. Stage 2 moving toward stage 3

  21. Stage 3 moving to stage 4.

  22. Stage 4- stable/low growth

  23. Stage 5? Aging population, low CBR

  24. Answers • 1. B • 2. A • 3. E • 4. C • 5. G • 6. H • 7. F • 8. D

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