Population Estimates and Projections Since the Census Count

1. Population Estimates and Projections Since the Census Count Jan Vink SDC meeting – Spring 2012

2. Outline • Estimates • Annual releases • Vintage 2011 • Calendar • Reviews and challenges • Other activities: • Estimates evaluations • Intercensals • Modified Race • Projections • Census Bureau activities • Cornell activities • Projections evaluations • plans

3. Annual Estimates Program releases * Cornell reviews preliminary data earlier • Other releases: • February: PEGACUS geographic changes

4. Role of affiliates • Provide input to the estimates process: • Boundary and Annexation Survey • Building permits • Review of the housing units estimates

5. Role of affiliates • Help elected officials to challenge County and Subcounty estimates • Talk to me about the estimates for your area: • What do you see • What did/do you expect to see

6. Challenges • 2000-2009 • Challenge through alternative method • Housing Units versus Components of Change • Most challenges were accepted • Evaluations showed that in MOST cases the challenges did NOT improve the estimates • New York, Queens, Richmond, Westchester better unchallenged • Bronx, Jefferson, Rockland better with challenges • 2011 forward • New challenge procedures

7. New challenge procedures • DISCLAIMER:NOT YET DEFINITE, THINGS CAN CHANGE! • Federal Register Notice in the works • Appropriate venue to comment on proposed changes • Major changes • Challenge the components of the current method • Some kind of review board

8. Estimates Evaluation • Comparison of the estimates with the Census 2010 counts • Many different estimate series • With/without challenges • Variations of Housing Units Method • Other methods • By different characteristics • E.g. by population size, 2000-2010 growth, etc.

9. Main findings • Larger error in estimates when: • Small county • Fast growing county • Declining county • Current method outperforms Housing Unit based estimates • No improvement found in alternative methods • On average challenges did not improve the estimates

10. Estimates Evaluation • Next steps: • Evaluating Sub county estimates • Evaluating estimates by demographic characteristics: age, sex and race • Lessons learned and proposed improvements

11. Hamilton Schuyler Hamilton New York Hamilton

12. Oswego Kings Warren Franklin New York Bronx Genesee Oneida

13. Extreme example • 5-9 year old Non Hispanic White Alone in Bronx County • In 2000: 8,507 • Estimated in 2010: 20,600 • Counted in 2010: 5,865 • Those kind of examples are not easy to find, but should warrant further investigation

14. Intercensal estimates Intercensal estimates are estimated time series of population counts between two Census dates and that are consistent at both ends Demographic characteristics of intercensal estimates were redone with improved methods

15. Modified race Estimates do NOT contain “Other race” category and Census counts do Race of people that checked “other race” are modified Not a standalone product at the moment, but can be derived from the intercensal estimates and the post-censal estimates (at county level) Still discussions with NCHS about modifying race without multiple race categories

16. Census Bureau Projections • New projections will be published at the end of 2012 • Last projections were done in 2008 (with some additional variations in 2009) • Only Nation wide • Variation in assumptions • Most sensitive to international migration assumptions • New projections every two year • No funding/mandate to do State projections

17. Cornell Projections Projections evaluations Future

19. Plans • Continue evaluation • Calculate new assumptions • Smoothing age specific fertility and mortality rates • Waiting for 2010 and 2011 fertility and mortality data • Use ACS for migration patterns • Hopefully first half next year

20. Use ACS for migration patterns Hamilton County: 20-24 year old

21. Estimates and Projections