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MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE Ticker: WFR). Greg Bruno | Patrick Quirke | Charles Chen | Richard Wang Thursday, March 3, 2010. Presentation Outline. Company Analysis Solar Energy Industry Semiconductor Material Industry Performance Analysis and Stock Valuation. Company Overview.
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MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE Ticker: WFR) Greg Bruno | Patrick Quirke | Charles Chen | Richard Wang Thursday, March 3, 2010
Presentation Outline • Company Analysis • Solar Energy Industry • Semiconductor Material Industry • Performance Analysis and Stock Valuation
Company Overview • Overview • Net Sales by categories • Acquisition Activities • SWOT Analysis • Competitors • Management assessment
WFR Historical Holdings • March 2008: 200 shares were bought @ $78.15 • December 2008: 400 shares were bought @ $14.43 Total Cost basis =$35.67 per share • Nov. 4 2011, 200 shares were sold @ $12.41. Realized loss: $4,652 • Dec. 6 2010, 200 shares were purchased @ $12.02 • Mar. 2 2011 (current portion): Closed price: $13.15 Portfolio: 2.32% Unrealized gain: 3.64%
Company Overview • Main business: Manufacturer and seller of wafer • Sector: Technology • Industry: Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits , and Solar industry • Products: • wafers in sizes from 100 millimerters (4 inch) to 300 millimeters (12 inch) • Intermediate product : polysilicon, silane gas, ingots and scrap wafers • Solar Energy Panels • Business segments: Semiconductor Materials, Solar Materials and Solar Energy. • Market covering: Manufacturing and research and development facilities in the United States, Europe and Asia pacific. • Customers: semiconductor device and solar cell (device) manufacturers • S&P 500 stock traded on New York Stock Exchange. Data provided by www.memc.com as of October 10, 2010
Acquisition Activities • Acquisition of Sun Edison November 23, 2009 MEMC completed acquisition of privately held Sun Edison, a developer of solar power projects and North America’s largest solar energy service provider. (Paid with $314 million, 70% cash, 30% MEMC stocks) • Acquisition of Solaicx July 2, 2010 MEMC completed acquisition of privately held Solaicx. (Paid with $66 million cash, and plus $10 cash equivalent of investment in Solaicx.) The acquisition expected to be accretive to earnings per share in 2011 • Acquisition outlook Based on the MEMC’s recent frequent acquisition activities, we expect more acquisition activities will be initiated in the near future Information provided by www.sunedison.com & www.memc.com as of October 10, 2010
Net Sales by Region, Business Segment Image provided by www.memc.com as of October 10, 2010
SWOT Analysis • Strengths • Vertical integration • Horizontal diversification • Strong technology base supported by strategic and efficient R&D • Strategic Long Term contracts • Weaknesses • Overcapitalization • Highly Leveraged • Accumulated inventory from 3rd and 4th at 2010
SWOT Analysis • Opportunities • Further diversification and gain share of renewable energy market • Reductions to COGS • Government support • Increasing market demand for renewable energy nationwide • Threats • Price competition in three segments • Short-term over supply of polysilicon • Imbalanced tax, regulatory, and trade policies
Competitors • Semiconductor Materials • Shin−Etsu Handotai : market shares: 25%, revenue:9,8B in 2010 • Sumco: market shares: 15%, revenue: 2.4 B in 2010 • Solar Materials • LDK Solar: Cap: 1.88B revenue: 1.89B • ReneSola: Cap: 0.8B revenue: 1B • Solar Energy • First Solar Inc. Cap: 12.5B revenue:2.56B • SunPower Corp.Cap: 1.66B revenue: 2.2 B
Management Assessment • Extended trend of steady improvement • SunEdison delivered strongest quarter to date • Semiconductor and solar end markets remain dynamic • Increased market share in an environment of rising prices • Management expects GAAP sales in the range of $2.8 - $3.1 billion and EPS of $0.25 to $0.55 • Improve execution • Continue strategic initiatives
Solar Energy Industry Analysis • Overview • Performance in 2009 • Performance in 2010 • Drivers for industrial growth • Porter’s Five Forces
Solar Energy Industry Overview • Solar energy products include Photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), and solar heating and cooling (SHC) • U.S. PV market has grown at an average annual rate of 69% over the past ten years, rising from just 3.9 megawatts (MW) in 2000 to 435 MW in 2009 • U.S. constituted only 6.5% of global PV demand in 2009, placing fourth in national installations behind Germany, Italy, and Japan. However, with continued pricing reductions and strong incentives, the U.S. could become the next major PV growth market
Solar Energy Industry - Performance in 2009 • The U.S. was a net exporter of solar energy products in 2009, with $723 million in net exports • 2009 U.S. solar installations created $3.6 billion in direct value, with 74% accruing to the U.S • Polysilicon was the largest solar product export, with $1.1 billion in exports in 2009 • The U.S. ranked fourth in the world for new solar electric installations (Germany was first, Italy second, and Japan third) Solar energy Industries Association 2009 report http://seia.org/galleries/default-file/Trade_Balance_Factsheet.pdf
Solar Energy Industry - Performance in 2010 • U.S. commercial solar customers added 103 megawatts of capacity in the third quarter of 2010, which represents a 38% jump over the third quarter of 2009 • Cost per installed watt fell under $6 (before tax breaks), with federal stimulus programs and state and local tax breaks • Worldwide, demand for just photovoltaic solar power grew 196% to 10.6 gigawatts in the first nine months of 2010 • Definite signs pointing to a strong year in 2011, in light of the solar energy tax legislation - Treasury Section 1603 Program Solar energy Industries Association 2009 report http://seia.org/galleries/default-file/Trade_Balance_Factsheet.pdf
Solar Energy Industry – Growth Drivers • Federal, state, and local policy incentives • Market volatility, especially with respect to natural gas and oil • Climate change and likely carbon regulations • Energy security issues • Need for increased energy production to meet growing demand (China, India, etc.) • Interest from financial community in “next big thing”
Solar Energy Industry – Growth Drivers • November 23, 2009 MEMC completed acquisition of privately held Sun Edison • Sun Edison LLC owns and operates power plants in North America and provides solar-generated energy to commercial, government, and utility customers • Provides solar energy services, which include renewable power, monitoring, marketing, renewable portfolio standards, and solar tariff services • As of 2010, it has more than 390 solar deployments worldwide • In 2010 it deployed more than 160 Megawatts of solar throughout the world • Including 28 MW of ground-mount and rooftop solar projects in Ontario • In Feb 2011, Sun Edison was awarded 31 Megawatts (MW) AC of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects by The Ontario Power Authority (OPA) as part of the province's landmark Feed-in Tariff (FIT*) program
Porter’s Five Forces Analysis - Solar • Bargaining Power of Suppliers – Low but increasing • No any significant power given ready alternatives to solar energy in the market • US government support – At least 30 states require that public utilities generate at least 10% - 20% of power using clean energy. • Threat of New Entrants/Barriers to Entry – Medium to high • High capital commitment • Competitive industry • Bargaining Power of Buyers – High • A wide variety of energy sources leaves consumers with the ability to choose • Competitive Industry Rivalry – Medium to high • Little product differentiation • Go Green campaign by US government • High exit barriers due to high capital commitment • Growing economy – increasing demand for poly-silicon to rooftop panels • Threat of Substitutes – High • Coal (>50%), oil, other fossil fuels, wind, hydrogen, hydropower, nuclear and bio-energy • Cost of electricity low using coal • However increasing awareness of the Green House Effect makes people to prefer clean energy
Semiconductor Industry Analysis • Characteristics • Porter’s Five Forces Analysis • Industry Performance Indicators • Book to Bill Ratio Analysis • Growth Expectations
Semiconductor Industry Characteristics & Performance • Highly cyclical • Reflects erratic, short-term oriented nature of the primary end market • Streamline operations and outsource production • 2010 global semiconductors sales grew 31.8% to $226.3 billion and beat analyst forecasts of $219.7 billion • Superior inventory management • New product launches • Strength in the consumer and computing markets Data provided by www.sia-online.org as of March 2, 2011
Porter’s Five Forces – Semiconductor Industry • Bargaining Power of Suppliers – Medium • Diffusion of risk over hundreds of companies minimizes individual supplier power • Increasing dependence on “foundries” for cutting-edge equipment and production skills increases bargaining power • Threat of New Entrants/Barriers to Entry – Medium, Decreasing • Chip fabrication asset (capital) intensive and technologically advanced business that requires billions of dollars in investment • Alliances formed among semiconductor companies to spread manufacturing costs • Success of “fabless” chip makers suggests that factory ownership may no longer bar entrants from industry participation • Bargaining Power of Buyers – Low • Industry segments dominated by small number of large players • Competitive Industry Rivalry – Very High, Increasing • Intense price rivalries between individual companies • Push for better, faster, and cheaper products creates short product life • Availability of Substitute Products – Low • Fundamental building blocks of semiconductor devices
Semiconductor Industry Performance Indicators • Two main indicators of semiconductor equipment manufacturer performance: • Order trends • Relationship between current orders and sales, known as the book-to-bill ratio • A ratio above 1.00 indicates expansion, and one below 1.00 reflects a slowdown. • North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.85 in January 2011 compared to 0.90 in December 2010 and 0.97 in November • The January 2011 billings averaged US$1.80 billion, 2.5% more than the final December 2010 level of and 88% higher than billings posted in January 2010 • Slowing of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market indicates slower growth in IC capacity in 2011 • IC production should continue to increase in 2011 as IC demand remains healthy • Semiconductor Intelligence believe IC capacity utilization will remain above 90% through the end of 2011 Data provided by www.sia-online.org as of October 10, 2010
Industry Growth Expectations • Semiconductor Intelligence forecasts 9% growth in 2011 and 8% growth in 2012 • Growth driven by: • Underlying strength of electronic equipment production • Continued moderate recovery from a deep recession • Unlikely to move into excess capacity for at least 1-2 years • Equipment billings should grow in 2011 by about 10% to 20% • IC and wafer demand will continue to grow as IC capacity grows in 2011 • IC wafer starts should grow about 10% in 2011 over 2010 • Growth in IC capacity should be slightly higher than growth in wafer starts • IC capacity utilization will remain above 90% throughout 2011 Data provided by HIS iSuppli Forecasts as of February 17, 2011 http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110217PR201.html
Valuation • DuPont Analysis • FCF Analysis • DCF Valuation • Public Comparables – Multiples Valuation • Triangulated Valuation • Recommendation
Recommendation • Hold position of 600 shares