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How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007? Heini Wernli Stephan Pfahl Jörg Trentmann University of Mainz. Approach and Outline Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001). Approach and Outline

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How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

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  1. How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007? Heini Wernli Stephan Pfahl Jörg Trentmann University of Mainz

  2. Approach and Outline Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001)

  3. Approach and Outline • Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001) • Consider domain-average for COPS area of: • T, , e, q, ... at 925, 850, 700 hPa • simple variant of KO-index (thermodynamic stability) • wind velocity and direction at 500 hPa • Eady growth rate (baroclinicity at 700 hPa) • cyclone frequency • frequency of upper-level PV cut-offs (small-scale troughs)

  4. Approach and Outline • Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001) • Consider domain-average for COPS area of: • T, , e, q, ... at 925, 850, 700 hPa • simple variant of KO-index (thermodynamic stability) • wind velocity and direction at 500 hPa • Eady growth rate (baroclinicity at 700 hPa) • cyclone frequency • frequency of upper-level PV cut-offs (small-scale troughs) • Show: • maps of seasonal mean & deviation from climatology • probability density functions (2007 vs. climatology) • quantile-quantile plots (2007 vs. climatology)

  5. Approach and Outline • Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001) • Consider domain-average for COPS area of: • T, , e, q, ... at 925, 850, 700 hPa • simple variant of KO-index (thermodynamic stability) • wind velocity and direction at 500 hPa • Eady growth rate (baroclinicity at 700 hPa) • cyclone frequency • frequency of upper-level PV cut-offs (small-scale troughs) • Show: • maps of seasonal mean & deviation from climatology • probability density functions (2007 vs. climatology) • quantile-quantile plots (2007 vs. climatology) • Caveat: • 2007 and climatology have different model resolution!

  6. T at 925 hPa • colder than clim over F • warmer than clim over E Europe • very close to clim in COPS area climatology 1979-2001 deviation from climatology in  2007

  7. e at 925 hPa • slightly above clim in COPS area climatology 1979-2001 deviation from climatology in  2007

  8. Cyclone frequency • above clim over UK / Benelux • below clim in Central Europe climatology 1979-2001 deviation from climatology in  2007

  9. Freq. of upper-level cutoffs • (short wave disturbances) • strongly above clim over UK • above clim in W Europe / COPS climatology 1979-2001 deviation from climatology in  2007

  10. PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC Temperature on 925 hPa [°C] specific hum. on 925 hPa [g/kg]

  11. PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC KO-Index: e, 500 - e, 850 [K]

  12. PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC more SW winds wind direction on 500 hPa

  13. Quantile-quantile plots of domain-averages at 12 UTC T at 925 K

  14. Quantile-quantile plots of domain-averages at 12 UTC Q at 925 K

  15. Quantile-quantile plots of domain-averages at 12 UTC KO Index

  16. Conclusion In summer 2007, the COPS area was characterised by ... ++ cyclones to the NW + passage of short wave troughs + frequency of SW winds at 500 hPa + BL specific humidity (mainly average not extremes) + low tropospheric baroclinicity 0 BL temperature - TD stability (mainly average not extremes)

  17. Eady growth rate • (low tropospheric baroclinicty) • slightly above clim near 45°N • (i.e., over Alps / COPS) climatology 1979-2001 deviation from climatology in  2007

  18. PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC Eady growth rate KO-Index: e, 500 - e, 850 [K]

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