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Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs

Group 6 Justin Shamp Ryan Moeller Tate Roueche Stuart Gaston Michael Grizzle Rachel Camunez. Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs. Fanatic Discipline. Level 5 Ambition. Productive Paranoia. Empirical Creativity.

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Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs

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  1. Group 6 Justin Shamp Ryan Moeller Tate Roueche Stuart Gaston Michael Grizzle Rachel Camunez Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs

  2. Fanatic Discipline Level 5 Ambition Productive Paranoia Empirical Creativity “You may not find what you were looking for, but you find something else equally important.” -Robert Noyce

  3. A Big Surprise • PSA vs. Southwest Airlines • Genentech vs. Amgen • More important factors than innovation? • “One fad behind”

  4. Threshold Innovation • Each environment has a level of threshold innovation Primary Innovation Dimension Innovation Threshold Industry New drug development, scientific discoveries, breakthroughs Biotechnology High New service features, new business models and practices Airlines Low

  5. Creativity And Discipline • Advanced Memory Systems vs. Intel • Not about being first to market, but being prepared when you decide to enter • “Intel Delivers” rather than “Intel Innovates” • Blend creative intensity with relentless discipline

  6. Bullets, Then Cannonballs • Not putting all your gun powder into one cannonball • Shoot small bullets till you hit target, then put all gunpowder into same line of sight for big hit

  7. What Makes A Bullet? • A bullet is low cost • The size of the bullet grows as the enterprise grows • A bullet is low risk • Low risk doesn’t mean high probability of success but rather minimal consequences if the bullet goes awry or hits nothing • A bullet is low distraction • Meaning low distraction for the overall enterprise; it might be very high distraction for one or few individuals

  8. Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs • Approach to principle: • Fire Bullets • Assess: Did your bullets hit anything? • Consider: Do any of your successful bullets merit conversation to a big cannonball? • Convert: Concentrate resources and fire a cannonball once calibrated • Don’t fire uncalibrated cannonballs • Terminate bullets that show no evidence of eventual success

  9. Calibrated vs. Uncalibrated • Calibrated bullets • Has confirmation based on actual experience, empirical validation, that a big bet will likely prove successful • Uncalibrated bullets • A cannonball fired before you gain empirical validation • Danger of firing multiple uncalibrated bullets • PSA

  10. Learning from follies • Difference between 10Xers and Comparison Companies • 10Xers view mistakes as expensive tuition: better get something out of it, apply the learning, and don’t repeat • Underlying Principle: Empirical Validation • Figure out what works in practice and do it better than everyone else

  11. Predictive Genius or Empirical Validation? • Bill Gates • IBM vs. Microsoft operating systems • Fired bullets at both so he would have a good outcome either way • Launched cannonball at MS-DOS and made it big • 10Xers aren’t visionary geniuses; they’re empiricists

  12. Conclusion • Fire bullets, then cannonball approach • Failure to fire cannonballs, once calibrated, leads to mediocre results • Marry relentless discipline with creativity

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