Luiz Cláudio Costa (l.costa@ufv.br) Universidade Federal de Viçosa

1. Luiz Cláudio Costa (l.costa@ufv.br) Universidade Federal de Viçosa International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services BELO HORIZONTE JULY 2010

2. The people of South America are heavily dependent on the continent natural resources-from the range lands at the foothills of the Andes, to the plants and animals of the Amazon rainforest, to the fisheries off the coast of Peru. The region’s ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the changes in water availability expected with a changing climate. Higher global temperatures along with more frequent El Niño may bring increased drought, and melting glaciers in the Andes threaten the future water supply of mountain communities. and coral bleaching. Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org

4. WHAT HAS HAPPENED? • Fingerprints • Some of the events are direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures, as already documented and projected to continue by models of a changing climate. • Recife, Brazil - Sea-level rise. Shoreline receded more than 6 feet (1.8 m) per year from 1915 to 1950 and more than 8 feet (2.4 m) per year from 1985 to 1995. The dramatic land loss was due to a combination of sea-level rise and loss of sediment supply following dam construction, harbor dredging, and other coastal engineering projects. • Andes Mountains, Peru - Glacial retreat accelerates seven-fold. The edge of the Qori Kalis glacier was retreating 13 feet (4.0 m) annually between 1963 and 1978. By 1995, the rate had stepped up to 99 feet (30.1 m) per year. • Chiclayo, Peru - Large increase in average minimum temperatures. Average minimum temperatures along Peru north coast increased 3.5°F (2°C) from the 1960s to 2000. The temperature in the high plateau region in extreme southeastern Peru has also risen 3.5°F (2°C), from an average of 48°F (9°C) in the 1960s to 52°F (11°C) in 2001. Northwestern South America has warmed by 0.8-1.4°F (0.5-0.8°C) in the last decade of the 20th century. • Tropical Andes (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and northernmost Chile) - Increase in average annual temperature. Average annual temperature has increased by about 0.18 F (0.1°C) per decade since 1939. The rate of warming has doubled in the last 40 years, and more than tripled in the last 25 years, to about 0.6°F (0.33°C) per decade. Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org

5. Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org • Fingerprints - Continuation • Argentina - Receding glaciers. Glaciers in Patagonia have receded by an average of almost a mile (1.5 km) over the last 13 years. There has been an increase in maximum, minimum, and average daily temperatures of more than 1.8°F (1°C) over the past century in southern Patagonia, east of the Andes. • Venezuela - Disappearing glaciers. Of six glaciers in the Venezuelan Andes in 1972, only 2 remain, and scientists predict that these will be gone within the next 10 years. Glaciers in the mountains of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru show similar rapid rates of retreat. Temperature records in other regions of the Andes show a significant warming of about 0.6°F (0.33°C) per decade since the mid-1970s. Source: http://www.climatehotmap.org

6. IPCC • Three major challenges for South America • Salinization and desertification of areas for agriculture; • Risks of flooding in low-lying coastal areas and displacement in the stocks of fish; • Significant changes in water availability. • Major problems predicted • Savannization the eastern Amazon, • Change the pattern of rainfall in western Amazonia, with the decline of forest density and more frequent fire; • The aridização the semi-arid; • Expansion of pests on agricultural production in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile; • Trends of declining rainfall in southern Chile and Peru and southwestern Argentina; • Increase of water supply and power in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador in the decrease of glaciers of the Andes; • Frequent floods in the delta of the Parana River and the West Coast of the River Plate;

7. Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 2009 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

8. Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 2009 CHANGES IN DROUGHT

9. Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 2009 CHANGES IN DROUGHT

10. Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 2009 CHANGES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURES

11. Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 2009 CHANGES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURES

13. OCCURRENCES - News on Natural Disasters in South America • Cerca de 370 mil pessoas são atingidas pela chuva no Sul -27/04/10 - (Globo.com) • Tremores deixaram 'danos significativos' em Rancagua, diz presidente do Chile - 11/03/10 - (G1 Globo) • Rio de Janeiro tem 44 mortos por causa das chuvas que atingiram o Estado - 01/01/10 - (Folha Online) • Chuvas voltam a atingir a região Sul e duas cidades decretam emergência - 28/09/09 - (Folha Online) • Defesa Civil acredita em tornado no Sul - 28/09/09 - (Diário Catarinense) • RS tem 180 famílias desalojadas por causa da chuva - 12/09/09 - (Zero Hora) • Chuvas acima da média em todas as regiões do Estado - 10/09/09 - (Paraná Online) • Confirmados mais dois tornados em Santa Catarina - 09/09/09 - (Diário Catarinense) • Mais de 72 mil pessoas em 45 municípios foram afetadas por temporal em Santa Catarina - 09/09/09 (Diário Catarinense) Chuvas prejudicam 664 mil em 6 Estados no Nordeste e Norte do Brasil - 01/05/09 - (Folha Online) • Chuva causa deslizamentos e 3 morrem em Alagoas - 01/05/09 - (Terra) • Mais de 3 mil pessoas tiveram que deixar suas casas por causa da chuva em SC - 23/04/09 - (Diário Catarinense) • Chuvas de verão já mataram 200 pessoas em seis estados - 15/02/09 - (Gazeta do Povo) • Chuva mata pelo menos 11 em Minas e continua causando muitos estragos - 18/12/08 - (hojeemdia.com) • Inundaciones convierten a las cenizas del Volcán Chaiten en cemento - 15/05/08 - (26noticias.com.ar) • Ciclone provoca morte, destruição e inundações - 04/05/08 - (MentSul) • Granizo destelha casas em Curitiba e Campo Largo - 29/04/08 - (Gazeta do Povo) • Chuvas deixam mais de 130 mil pessoas fora de casa no Norte e Nordeste; mortos chegam a 36 - 09/04/08 - (UOL) • Tres millones y medio de ecuatorianos afectados por inundaciones - 22/02/08 - (El Universo) • Começa Operação Humanitária em apoio às vítimas das enchentes na Bolívia - 01/02/08 - (FAB- Sala de Imprensa) Source: Centro de Apoio Científico em Desastres - CENACID

14. OCCURRENCES - Mapping 2007 Source: Centro de Apoio Científico em Desastres - CENACID

15. AGRICULTURE • Studies in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay based on general circulation models (GCMs) and crop models project decreased yields in several crops (e.g., maize, wheat, barley, grapes), even when the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization and the implementation of moderate adaptation measures at the farm level are considered. • It is likely that increases in temperature will reduce crop yields in the region by shortening the crop cycle. However, the lack of consistency in the various GCM precipitation scenarios makes it difficult to have a precise scenario for crop production under climate change, even when the relationships between precipitation and crop yields are well known. • Increased temperature, ultraviolet radiation, sea-level rise, and changes in pest ecology may threaten food production as well (e.g., in Argentina). Climate change may reduce silvicultural yields as a result of changes in water availability during the dry season.

16. Complexity Dataavailability Experimentation upscaling

17. Atmospheric CO2 Centuries Soil organic carbon Decades Crop LAI Years Temporal delineation Leaf photosynthesis Days

18. Climate Change and Agriculture Extrems CO2 temperature Adaptation Regional Models(RGCMs) Environmental Social Economical impact Climate change scenarios Crop Growth Model / Experiments Economical Models Global Climate model(GCMs)

19. Experiments CO2 enhancement, maize and beans yields Obrigado

20. Experiments

21. Results CO2 Fertilization T1 700 ppm T2 380 ppm T3 Open

22. 2020 2050 2080 Beans Climate

23. 2020 2050 2080 Maize Climate

24. (A)‏ (B)‏ Spatial distribution Maize – Maranhão State Estimates of real productivity Drop in the productivity accordint to the A2 scenario