THE PLANET99 MODEL DEMAND AND REVENUE FORECASTING TOOL FOR RAIL OPERATORS

1. THE PLANET99 MODEL DEMAND AND REVENUE FORECASTING TOOL FOR RAIL OPERATORS 8th EUROPEAN EMME/2 USERS CONFERENCE Jeremy Douch GIBB Transport Planning May 1999

2. PLANET Consultancy Services Demand and revenue forecasting services provided by GIBB Transport Planning.

3. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION • What is PLANET99 ? • Network Development. • PLANET99 Demand. • Validation of PLANET99. • Assignment Process. • Financial and Economic Appraisal. • Flexibility of PLANET99.

4. WHAT IS PLANET99 ? • Demand and revenue forecasting tool for rail industry. • Multi-modal EMME/2 model. • All rail services in the South East of England. • Distribution Modal Split. • Crowding sub-model.

5. DEVELOPMENT OF PLANET99 • Morning peak weekday model (0700-1000). • Incorporates all train services in London and South East of England. • 1997 passenger demand. • DMS model enhancements. • Enhancement of the crowding sub-model.

6. PLANET99 NETWORK DEVELOPMENT • Winter 1997/98 rail timetable, AM peak. • Stopping patterns, timetabling, profit centre. • Train capacities extracted from 1997 census. • Each service associated with a profit centre. • Output by TOC, profit centre or transit line readily extracted. • Review and update of underground transit lines.

7. PLANET99 RAIL NETWORK

8. PLANET99 UNDERGROUND, DLR AND CROYDON TRAMLINK NETWORKS

9. LIST OF TOCs MODELLED IN PLANET99 • Chiltern Railways. • Connex South Eastern. • Connex South Central. • Great Eastern Railway. • LTS Rail. • Silverlink Train Services. • South West Trains. • Thameslink. • Thames Trains. • West Anglia Great Northern Railway. • Anglia Railways. • Gatwick Express. • Great North EasternRailway. • Great Western Trains. • Midland Mainline. • Virgin Trains.

10. PLANET99 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT • Morning peak demand (0700-1000). • October 1997 demand using CAPRI flow downloads by profit centre to derive station origin and destination flows. • Adjustments made to season tickets using CAPRI and PDFH factors to realise average weekday demands. • PLANET99 distribution based on census data. • Underground component of matrix remains unchanged.

11. CROWDING SUB-MODEL Impact of train and underground over-crowding on passenger route choice: • Build paths and assign proportion of trip matrix. • Capacity and demand profiles to model the supply and demand relationships. • Derive measure of crowding based on relationship of train capacity (seated and standing) and demand. • Adjust travel times and assign further proportion of trip matrix.

12. DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT MODEL • 156 DMS zones, covering local authority boundaries or groups of authorities containing socio economic data. • DMS model considers the change in trip origin, destination or mode resulting from changes in service pattern using model skims.

13. DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT MODEL cont... Planning data to derive: • Potential home movers. • Potential work changers. • Potential home movers & work changers. • Potential non movers or changers. Zones that have a reduction in generalised cost should benefit. Zones that have an increase in generalised cost should dis-benefit.

14. PLANET99 MODEL STRUCTURE DEMAND SUPPLY PLANET NETWORK MODEL 1239 ZONES ASSIGNMENT PROCESS CALCULATE GENERALISED COST FOR EACH ORIGIN AND DESTINATION BY RAIL DMS MODEL 156 ZONES MODE SPLIT AND REDISTRIBUTION EFFECTS 1239 ZONES PRODUCE POST DMS MATRIX ASSIGNMENT OF POST DMS MATRIX

15. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPRAISAL Government appraisal guidance - “A New Deal for Transport” 1998 • Environment. • Safety. • Economy. • Accessibility. • Integration.

16. ECONOMY Benefits to rail and road users requires consideration of: • Journey time. • Train frequency. • Crowding. • Journey reliability. • Station facilities. • Rolling stock quality. ACCESSIBILITY “Reduction of barriers” • Reduction in number of interchanges. • Reduction in boarding penalty.

17. GRAPHICAL DISPLAY CAPABILITIES Network based graphical output: Matrix based graphical output: • Transit volumes. • Boardings and alightings. • Capacities. • Frequencies. • User defined input e.g. crowding, wait times etc. • Comparison of scenarios for all of the above. • Histograms e.g. Distribution of travel times. • Scattergrams. • Regression analysis. GIS output: • Mapping journey time changes. • Accessibility. • Monetary trip values.

18. THAMESLINK 2000 SCHEME • Development of new rail corridor. • First through London services. • Connects commuter towns north and south of London with central London. • High frequency, fast services.

19. THAMESLINK 2000 SCHEME

20. Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Perceived Journey Time Savings (minutes)

21. Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Boarding Time Savings (minutes)

22. Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Monetary Savings ( £s )

23. Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Localised Crowding Relief

24. FLEXIBILITY OF PLANET99 • Automated input of demand. • Automated input of transit lines. • Enhanced presentation of economic and financial effects of scheme through interface with GIS.

25. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON PLANET99 Please contact: Jeremy Douch, GIBB Transport Planning, GIBB Ltd, GIBB House, London Road, Reading, RG6 1BL UK Tel: +44 (0) 1189 635000 Fax: +44 (0) 1189 635100 EMail: jdouch@gibb.co.uk