From Atomic Weapons to Biological Threats: History and Hopes for the Future

1. 1945 to 2005 The ability of mankind to destroy itselfHISTORY AND HOPES FOR THE FUTURERichard Wilson Harvard Universitytalk at:Sandia National LaboratoryMarch 28th 2005

2. “Christendom has no catastrophe equal to the Black Death.”1/3 the world population died“The records of England tell more by their silence than by the shocking figures that confront us wherever records were kept”WS Churchill

3. The terrible chemical weaponsthat came into prominence in World War I, at Ypres and elsewhere, do not compete with Nature. With them, mankind cannot destroy itself.

4. But on August 6th 1945 everything changed.1940 100lbs = 0.05 tons1944 1 ton “blockbusters”1945 10,000 tons1960 5,000,000 tonsMeteorite Impactthat destroyed the dinosaurs5,000,000,000 tons

5. July 1945 (Alamgordo)Bhagavad Gita via Oppenheimer“I have become Death; the Destroyer of Worlds”.Ken Bainbridge:“we’ll all be called sons of bitches now”.

6. Einstein and SzilardInternational Controlvs. GrovesAmerica must always be strong and ahead(Contrast: courtesy of Jonathan Schell)

7. Baruch plan 1946Acheson - LilienthalEisenhower --- Atoms for PeaceDecember 8th 1953followed byNuclear Non Proliferation Treaty(NPT)

8. The CarrotImmediate access to Peaceful Nuclear technologyandThe StickAgreement to forego nuclear weapons (and agree to inspections)

9. Criticism of Atoms for Peace and NPT“only a social psychologist could hope to explain why the possessors of the most terrible weapons in history should have sought to spread the necessary industry to produce them in the belief that this would make the world safer”Beaton

10. In weapons states, the USSR and USA, Atoms for Peace and NPThave been a failure. Article IV of the NPT treaty enjoins all states with nuclear weapons to reduce them. 1987 each had more than 10,000 bombsready mounted on delivery vehicles pure fuel in reserve for 20,000 more

11. 1/4 hospital admissions involve nuclear technology.Particle accelerators and radioactive sources for therapy. CAT scanners, and Magnetic Resonance ImagingRadioimmunoassay

12. Nuclear Research Reactors95% enriched uraniumThe US to its “client states” including South Vietnam; USSR to its “client states”Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Yugoslavia(No diversion but now not done)BUTHeavy water reactorsCanada to IndiaFrance to Israel (Dimona)Plutonium produced, separated and bombs made

13. 8 countries have nuclear weapons, 5 “weapons states” and 3 non signatories,India, Israel and Pakistan,not 100 countries considered likely in 1946

14. May 1991 defense minister of the Soviet Union, Marshal Yazov.“The Chernobyl Accident was very important. If a power station not designed to explode caused that much mess, it showed those of us who did not already know that a nuclear war would destroy the planet”.Before Chernobyl USSR leaders would not have been deterred by 200 nuclear weapons. US leaders in 2005 seem no better.

15. Selling reprocessing without a civilian need:1970 Germany proposed to sell to BrazilFrance proposed to sell to PakistanItaly sells fuel fabrication facility to Iraq (delivered)“Supplier” countries now do not. Iran making isotope separation?

16. Preemeptive StrikesOSIRAK unsuited for bomb makingIraq bomb program started after bombingCIA and MOSSAD did not know details of Iraq programBefore preemption be technically accurate.Who decides?

17. InspectionsOpenness is the keyInquistive; keep eyes open;obtain intelligence from abroadBefore 1991: IAEA inspected only declared facilitiesGrossly INADEQUATEDavid Kaye in 1991 did fine.

18. Genetic ManipulationMAY enable small pox (or other)to be easily airborneHarder to controlMaybe destroy mankind before vaccine available

19. EDUCATION is woefully inadequateespecially educate leaders even inadequate in Russia and USAstart in schoolsvisit countries that might proliferate

20. Japan, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, Argentine Taiwan and Brazil started but stopped. South Africa, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan got rid of themWhy?

21. What do we do about:India?Pakistan?Israel?Who are outside NPTbut have bombs!!

22. Are all nations equal?NPT suggested only two groups:weapons states & non weapons statesWe have also:supplier nations“trusted” nations

23. Can we get USA and RF to cut back to 100 bombs each?What about ABM treaty?Who does the trusting?Groves or Einstein- Szilard?

24. Biological WeaponsI am worried about an artificial plague, that kills 90% of the human race, not a biological attack that kills 30,000 or less. • Is it plausible? • Can one exclude it?

25. Biological WeaponsSmaller. MUCH harder to inspectUse of defectors necessaryInspection has NEVER been fully triedFirst “experiment” on inspection in 2003 was rudely terminated

26. Defense may be similar to defense against natural virusesAIDSLassa FeverSARSMaybe we should emphasize this.

27. Western society changed when antibiotics reduced infectious diseases We put human rights ahead of stopping infectionWe no longer quarantine

28. Stopping spread of infectionis analogous to preventing access to atomic bombsBe willing to suggest drastic and unusual measuresUse all clues to infectionInternational rapid action center for diagnosing symptoms (Dr Lane at UCLA)Check for disease vectors at airports(rapid thermometry?)may be more important than stopping knives or gunsPassengers and crew might have face masksQuarantine may be necessary

29. Should hospitals in NY test pregnant women for HIV and insist on AZT treatment to protect the child?Some human rights groups said noI said yes

30. For AIDS there are two conflicting motivesSociety wants to reduce the time a person can infect anotherThe individual wants his life extended

31. These are hard issuesAIDS could be eliminated by a small change in human behaviorBut that small change has proved very hard to make

32. “the price of existence is eternal vigilance”.Modified from Voltairehttp://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilsonhttp://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilson/publications/ppaper865.html