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2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans. Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden. Science Advisory Committee 21 November 2005 Huntsville, AL. 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans. Thunderstorm Forecasts/Lightning Threat Analysis of 1-3 May 2004 Florida WRF 2 km simulations
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2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden Science Advisory Committee 21 November 2005 Huntsville, AL
2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans • Thunderstorm Forecasts/Lightning Threat • Analysis of 1-3 May 2004 Florida WRF 2 km simulations • Analysis of 22 April 2005 Alabama event with OU 2 km WRF • Complete 10 December 2004 Alabama Case study • Complete P. Gatlin M.S. thesis • Develop AWIPS lightning threat product and assessment (LMA+NLDN) • North Alabama WES Cases • Develop more extensive training case for other WFOs based on the 6 May 2003 outbreak • Quantitative analysis of archived WES severe event cases • NCEP SPC 2006 Spring Program participation/collaboration • Pending LMA Extensions, Proposals • DC LMA Demo- NWS OST, Eastern Region • MRC Miss.LMA network- NASA Applied Sciences • NCAR Autonowcaster/4DWX at RTTC (LMA + ARMOR)
2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans • Convective Initiation (CI) Nowcasts (0-1 h) • Development of CI assessment survey for April 2006 assessment • Continue to (automatically) provide 30-min CI fields to NWS via AWIPS • Provide second/third NWS training for these fields in 2006 • Pending Satellite-based Lightning Initiation (LI; 30-min–2 h) Nowcasts • Begin LI nowcasts data transfer in early 2006; technique development completed • UAH Graduate student involvement with NWS Huntsville • Development of LI assessment survey • GLM R3 • Collaboration with NSSTC Team • Collaboration with ORA Coop Inst. (CIRA, CIMMS, CICS) • Lightning Data Assimilation • NASA NRC Post-Doc proposal pending (Themis Chronis/UCONN)
2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans • Marine and Coastal Weather Assessments • Value of supplemental WRF forecast products (QPF, T, q) on coastal weather forecasts • Assess value of real time AMSR-E to monitor off-shore convective systems • Meetings • AMS Annual Meeting 29 January, Atlanta, GA • NPOESS Training Development Workshop, May 2006 • Southern Thunder Alliance Meeting, July 2006 Cocoa Beach