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Introduction to adaptation

Topic 3, Section A. Introduction to adaptation. Learning outcomes. In this presentation, you will learn why adaptation is important for development. You will also learn how adaptation can be mainstreamed into development and about adaptation policies at global and national levels.

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Introduction to adaptation

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  1. Topic 3, Section A Introduction to adaptation

  2. Learning outcomes In this presentation, you will learn why adaptation is important for development. You will also learn how adaptation can be mainstreamed into development and about adaptation policies at global and national levels Topic 3, Section A, slide 2 of 30

  3. Outline • Why is adaptation important for development? • Mainstreaming adaptation into development • Adaptation policies at global and national levels Topic 3, Section A, slide 3 of 30

  4. 1. Why is adaptation important for development? Most development activities are sensitive to climate • Current climate variability • Future climate change Examples: • Rain fed agriculture is highly dependent on rainfall patterns • Agroforestry and forestry are sensitive to wind storms • Forest productivity depends on rainfall • Drinking water supply is highly dependent on rainfall and temperature • Infrastructure is sensitive to flooding Topic 3, Section A, slide 4 of 30

  5. Examples: Agriculture Anomalies in June–September rainfall (red) and wet-season rice harvest (blue) in India. This demonstrates the effects of climate variability. Changes in crop growing season under climate change. Tropical areas are negatively affected. Topic 3, Section A, slide 5 of 30

  6. Example: Water Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions Topic 3, Section A, slide 6 of 30

  7. Example: Water Watersheds currently under ‘severe water stress’ and with projected increase in water stress because of global change (Alcamo and Henrichs 2002) Topic 3, Section A, slide 7 of 30

  8. Example:National development GDP Growth and Rainfall in Ethiopia Topic 3, Section A, slide 8 of 30

  9. Climate change impacts on developmentExample of USAID’s objectives Impacts of climate change Instability Conflicts Undermining of peace efforts Disrupting efforts to strengthen civil society Reducing participation of marginalised groups Vector-borne diseases Malnutrition Health effects of reduced access to clean water Risk of death from extreme events Pressure on post-disaster systems Topic 3, Section A, slide 9 of 30

  10. Climate change impacts on developmentExample of USAID’s objectives Impacts of CC Crop loss and soil erosion Changes in crop yield Increased incidence of pests and diseases More forest fires Changes in flora and fauna ranges Loss of biodiversity Damage to coasts, coral reefs, and mangroves Losses to livelihoods assets Increased debt burden Increased poverty Decreased hydropower potential Damaged dams due to flooding Changes in energy demand Topic 3, Section A, slide 10 of 30

  11. How to reduce vulnerability? Increase AC Decrease E Decrease S Capacity of society to cope with flooding: Reduce poverty, strengthen institutions, raise population awareness, implement alert systems, among other things. Capacity of ecosystems to cope with climate change: Reduce other pressures, increase connectivity. Vulnerability V=PI-AC Exposure of cities to flooding: Restrict settlements in flood-prone areas; better manage watersheds. Exposure of ecosystems to temperature changes:Impossible to reduce. Sensitivity of bridges to flooding:Design higher or stronger bridges. Sensitivity of agriculture to drought:Use drought-resistant varieties. Projected Impacts PI=E+S Adaptive Capacity AC Sensitivity S Exposure E Topic 3, Section A, slide 11 of 30

  12. 2. Mainstreaming adaptation into development Depending on the challenges: • An adaptation project may be similar to traditional development • An adaptation project may require a new approach Mainstreaming adaptation into development projects: • Would lead to more robust projects, but there are few efforts in this direction: • 25% of the World Bank’s projects are vulnerable to climate variability or climate change or climate change • 2% of the World Bank’s projects address climate risks Topic 3, Section A, slide 12 of 30

  13. How to design adaptation? • Six steps proposed by USAID • Flexible approach that can be applied to an ongoing project Topic 3, Section A, slide 13 of 30

  14. Step 1: Screen for Vulnerability Here are some basic questions to be addressed: • Is my project sensitive to climate variability? If it is, it is likely to be sensitive to climate change. • Can long-term climate changes introduce other risks to my project? Other questions to consider: • Is there experience with adaptation in the country? • Have adaptation policies been identified? • Are there barriers to implementing adaptation measures? • Can models, tools and practices be adapted from other studies? • What would be the cost of not adapting? Topic 3, Section A, slide 14 of 30

  15. Step 2: Identify Adaptations Preparatory activities: • Review information on impacts and vulnerabilities • Review other programmes with an adaptation component • Solicit advice from experts • Review country policies Participatory activities: • Meet with stakeholders to discuss vulnerability and adaptation • Consult national and international experts Topic 3, Section A, slide 15 of 30

  16. Step 3: Conduct Analysis Define baseline of performance: • What would be the project performance with and without adaptation, under current and future conditions? Several criteria are available: • Material from four USAID pilot studies • Use a set of criteria selected by stakeholders Output: • Assessment matrix • Adaptation options • Analysis criteria Topic 3, Section A, slide 16 of 30

  17. Steps 4 to 6: Select, Implement and Evaluate Adaptation Topic 3, Section A, slide 17 of 30

  18. Discussion Based on a case of a forestry programme you know: • What you would do to assess the climate impacts? • What adaptation actions would you choose? • How would you apply the 6 steps explained earlier? Topic 3, Section A, slide 18 of 30

  19. For more information Topic 3, Section A, slide 19 of 30

  20. 3. Adaptation policies at global and national levels Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol several provisions are relevant to vulnerability and adaptation: • The Parties are committed to undertaking activities to facilitate adaptation • Specific attention is given to most vulnerable countries including: • Small island states • Least Developed Countries • Countries with low-lying coastal areas, arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas, areas prone to natural disasters, areas liable to drought and desertification, and areas with fragile ecosystems But these international provisions are suffering from slow implementation Topic 3, Section A, slide 20 of 30

  21. Recent developments • Guidelines for non-Annex I National Communications • Developed with a Consultative Group of Experts from non-Annex I Parties (CGE) • COP 8 (New Delhi, 2002), Parties adopted revised guidelines • http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/guidelines_and_user_manual/items/2607.php Topic 3, Section A, slide 21 of 30

  22. Recent developments Adaptation funds agreed upon in Marrakech 2001: • The Least Developed Countries Fund supports the preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action. Amount: US$40 million • The Special Climate Change Fund supports programmes that complement those supported by the Global Environment Facility climate change area. Amount: US$ 34 million • The Adaptation Fund is funded by a share of the proceeds of the Clean Development Mechanism (2%). Amount: €125 million and €750 million Topic 3, Section A, slide 22 of 30

  23. Recent developments Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, 2006 • An international framework was implemented by the Parties and other stakeholders with objectives to: • Help countries improve their understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability • Increase their ability to make informed decisions on how to adapt successfully • Nine areas of work: • Methods and tools • Data and observations • Climate modeling, scenarios and downscaling • Climate related risks and extreme events • Socio-economic information • Adaptation planning and practices • Research • Technologies for adaptation • Economic diversification http://unfccc.int/adaptation/sbsta_agenda_item_adaptation/items/3633.php Topic 3, Section A, slide 23 of 30

  24. Recent developments The Bali Roadmap or Bali Plan of Action, 2007 • A roadmap was developed for negotiations leading up to the UN Convention on Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 • Four building blocks • Mitigation • Adaptation • Financing • Technology • Importantly, adaptation receives the same emphasis as mitigation Topic 3, Section A, slide 24 of 30

  25. National Adaptation Policies National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) • As of May 2008, 31 out of 49 Least Developed Countries have developed their NAPA. Next step - implementation of projects • Next step: implementation of projects National Communications • All have a section on vulnerability and adaptation, but they are sometimes inconsistent Adaptation projects and policies are still under developed Topic 3, Section A, slide 25 of 30

  26. References • Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. and Hulme, M. 2003 Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog. Dev. Studies 3(3):179-195. • Adger, W.N. et al. 2005 Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science 309:1036-1039. • Adger, W.N. 2003 Social capital, collective action and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography 79:387-404. • Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change 15:77-86. • Berkes, F. and Jolly, D. 2001 Adapting to climate change: social-ecological resilience in a Canadian Western Arctic community. Conservation Ecology 5(2):18. • Burton, I. et al. 2006 Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy Options. Pew Center. • Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J. and Shirley, W.L. 2003 Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly 84:242-261. • Dow, K. 1992 Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum 23:417-436. • Dow, K., Kasperson, R.E. and Bohn, M. 2006 Exploring the social justice implications of adaptation and vulnerability. In: Adger et al. (eds.) Fairness in Adaptation to Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. p. 79-96. • Downing, T.E. et al. 2001. Vulnerability Indices: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. UNEP Policy Series. UNEP, Nairobi. Topic 3, Section A, slide 26 of 30

  27. References • Eakin, H. 2005. Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: cases from Central Mexico. World Development 33:1923-1938. • Eakin, H. and Luers, A.L. 2006 Assessing human and biophysical vulnerability to global environmental change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 31. • Folke, C. 2006 Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for socialecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16(3):253-267. • Grothmann, T. and Patt, A. 2005 Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change 15:199-213. • Haddad, B.M. 2005 Ranking the adaptive capacity of nations to climate change when socio-political goals are explicit. Global Environmental Change 15:165-176. • Kelly, P.M. and Adger, W.N. 2000 Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47:325-352. • Klein, R.J.T. and Nicholls, R.J. 1999 Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28:182-187. • Luers, A.L. et al. 2003 A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change 13:255-267. • Morduch, J. 1994 Poverty and vulnerability. American Economic Review 84:221-225. • Mortimore, M.J. and Adams, W.M. 2001 Farmer adaptation, change and 'crisis' in the Sahel. Global Environmental Change 11:49-57. • Naess, L.O., Bang, G., Eriksen, S. and Vevatne, J. 2005 Institutional adaptation to climate change: flood responses at the municipal level in Norway. Global Environ. Change 15:125-138. Topic 3, Section A, slide 27 of 30

  28. References • O'Brien, K. 2006 Are we missing the point? Global environmental change as an issue of human security. Global Environmental Change 16:1-3. • O'Brien, K.L. et al. 2004 Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Global Environmental Change 14:303-313. • Parry, M. and Carter, T. 1994 Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment: A Guide to the IPCC Approach. Earthscan, London. • Pelling, M. and High, C. 2005 Understanding adaptation: what can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity? Global Environmental Change 15:308-319. • Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R. and Keykhah, M. 2003 Vulnerability and risk: some thoughts from a political and policy perspective. Risk Analysis 23:805-810 • Smit, B. and Pilifosova, O. 2001 Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In: McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. p. 877-912. • Smith, J.B. et al. 2001 Vulnerability to climate change and reasons for concern: a synthesis. In: McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. p. 914-967. • Turner II. et al. 2003a A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 100:8074-8079. Topic 3, Section A, slide 28 of 30

  29. References • Turner II. et al. 2003b Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 100:8080-8085. • UNDP. 2004 Adaptation Policy Framework for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures. www.undp.org • UNEP. 1998 Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. www.unep.org • USAID. 2007 Adapting to Climate Change Variability and Change: a Guidance Manual for Development Planning. www.usaid.gov • Yohe, G. and Tol, R.S.J. 2002 Indicators for social and economic coping capacity: moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change 12:25-40. Topic 3, Section A, slide 29 of 30

  30. Thank you for your attention

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