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Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition

Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition. UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight – Present and Future. The New Global Setting. Increased financial, trade and investment flows

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Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition

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  1. Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight – Present and Future Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  2. The New Global Setting • Increased financial, trade and investment flows • Rapid and accelerating technological progress; electronics, ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells, nanotechnologies • New international regulations and standards, trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights • New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage • Global value chains and production networks emerge in all types of industries managed by multinational companies and global buyers Companies and governments in developing countries are even more affected by changes on global setting Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  3. Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries • Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional framework • Under-developed technology and innovation promotion capabilities • Short-term thinking and reactive mode action • System linkage failures and poor coordination • Disconnection of application of new technologies from socio-economic problems • Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary focus • Low technology and innovation intensity in industry • Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion • Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis (brain drain, demography) • Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  4. Response to emerging challenges and opportunities Redefining policies compatible with global industrial interconnections • Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for competitiveness and sustainable development • Connecting national industries to global value chains • Need of global positioning of national industries • Through comparing performance and drivers • Up-grading industrial capabilities • Enhancing industrial governance • Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight methodologies Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  5. Global customers Large-scale, multi-outlet retailers Small-scale retailers Global buyers Buyer and export agents Local customers Large-scale or multi-plant manufacturers Small-scale manufacturers Small-scale suppliers Global industrial interconnections National economy boundary Investment and Technology Promotion Branch Domestic industrial cluster

  6. Global industries Industrial Clusters Support Systems Systems Support Governance system Framework conditions Connecting national industry to global value chains Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  7. Global Positioning of National Industries Enabling business environment Regulatory framework Credit ranking Infrastructure Cost of doing business Cost of production Global Links Linking, liberating and learning FDI and domestic capability building Import of capital goods Trade performance Performance GDP per capita Competitive industrial performance Poverty Environment Gender development Trade diversification Governance Industrial governance Economic transformation index Corporate social responsibility Economic freedom Capabilities Human Capital Technology and innovation Modern infrastructure Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  8. Comparing Performance/Drivers Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  9. Up-grading Industrial Capabilities Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  10. GOVERNMENT Guides the overall strategy process and focuses on strategic tasks and policy issues PRIVATE SECTOR Identify and assess challenges and opportunities and organize collective responses SUPPORT SYSTEM Analyze trends Support clusters Strengthen capabilities and global links Industrial Governance REGIONS Promote and Support the development of local clusters Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  11. Promotion of a foresight culture and application of the foresight methodology • Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process • Introducing a forward-looking attitude • Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment • Stimulating a participative approach • Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue • Reaching consensus around shared visions • Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socio-economic issues Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  12. What is foresight? • B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” • L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life” The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight has to prepare us for a variety of "futures" Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  13. What for Technology Foresight in developing countries and economies in transition? • Improve decision making • Guide technology choices • Generate alternative trajectories for future development • Enhance learning and improve preparedness for emergencies • Motivate change Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  14. Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise • Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as: • Government • Industry • Academy - natural & social scientists • Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools, the general public, etc. • An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  15. The context of the Foresight process Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  16. Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  17. Classes of Foresight methods Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  18. Overview of some common methods (Loveridge, 1996) Creativity Science fiction Brainstorming Scenario La writing prospective Combinations Essays of methods Workshops Delphi Impact Panels Conferences matrix Interaction Expertise Alignment Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  19. Status of foresight • Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name • Content focus • Priority setting • Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities • Structural focus (increasing tendency) • Reorienting Science & Innovation system • Demonstrating vitality of S & I system • Bringing new actors into the strategic debate • Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around problems • Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously • All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels • Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  20. Context of move to open innovation • Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy • Concept of innovation ecosystem • Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision • Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies • Also an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters, platforms and supply chains • Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities and effective demand Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  21. FIRST GENERATION Technology forecasts Four generations of Foresight SECOND GENERATION Technology and markets THIRD GENERATION Technology, markets and the social dimension FOURTH GENERATION Distributed Role in Innovation System Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  22. UNIDO Initiative on Technology Foresight Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  23. Development objectives • Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential • Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels • Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  24. Components • Awareness building and foresight culture • National and Regional / Supra-national capabilities • Regional and International coordination – Partnerships promotion Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  25. UNIDO support • International Conferences and workshops on best practices and methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate) • Promoting industry participation • Task force of experts and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercises • Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countries • Cooperation in the post-foresight process Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  26. Tools and methodologies • Book on International Practices on Technology Foresight • UNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight • Web page: www.unido.org/foresight • CD-ROM collection • Delphi on-line • TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national) Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  27. Regional or Supra-national dimension • Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmes • Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networking • Reduce costs by sharing common activities • Awareness of global and regional trends • Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems • Concentration of plurinational production chains Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  28. Foresight Exercise for Production Chains Production processes Markets Products Identification of: Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries Required cooperation for technology up-grading Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  29. Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Participation of different countries Plurinational Multisectorial Complex production chains Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  30. Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises • Multi-country level • National level • Sub-national level • Company level Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  31. Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities Some issues have to be examined on higher than nationallevel or international cooperation is required • Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-7) • Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7) • Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food and Automotive industries (2003) • Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6) • Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7) • Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9) Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  32. REGIONAL LATIN AMERICA THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY South American Pacific Coast Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  33. Fishery Productive Chain RESOURCES PROCESSING Marine Fresh water Canned EXTRACTION Aquaculture HUMAN CONSUMPTION Frozen Factory ships Cured Seine INDUSTRIALINPUTS Concentrated Small scale Intermediate and final agricultural goods Hydrolysed Aquaculture NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION Industrial intermediate goods Semi-refined oils Refined oils Meals and crude oils Production services Capital goods Balanced food Animal feed Infrastructure Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  34. Methodology Strengh and weakness of the environment National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets National Diagnostics Regional Panel Regional Situation National Panels National Foresight Studies Consultations Regional Panel and Report Critical Technologies Decision Making Processes Tools of Action Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  35. Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost Main results • 1) Agreements on regional cooperation for improving productivity and competitiveness • 2) Definition of regional R&D programmes • 3) Application of up-graded technologies Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  36. Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost Recommendations for follow up programmes • Definition of a regional policy • Technology up-grading and investment promotion for re-conversion and modernization • Creation of new regional center for capability building and technology watch/road mapping - Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of the region Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  37. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project:Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia Contract no.:43005 FutureFood6 European Commission – 6th Framework Starting date:01 February 2007 Duration:2 years Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  38. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe The immediate goal: • to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern European countries to reach international standards • to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality. Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  39. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project strategy: 1.  Mobilizationof a variety of stakeholders groups 2.A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3.  Interviewswith specialists. 4.  A survey on key technologies 5.  Future vision building exercise 6.Technology road mapping Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  40. UNIDO WIIW OPTI FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG) Czech Republic TC AS CR Slovakia BIC Group Croatia NWMC Romania UEFISCSU Bulgaria ARC Fund Hungary IEHAS B C D Knowledge institutions on food industry from every participating country Committee of high-level national policy-makers Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project Team Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  41. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Work plan flowchart Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  42. National foresight programmes • Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors • Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood, construction • Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology, energy and transportation and logistics • Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise • Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and capability • Romania - National STI Strategy Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  43. Sub-national foresight Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies of large countries • Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  44. Corporate Foresight • Technology Fairs of the Future • Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  45. Future UNIDO efforts • Support companies in developing countries and economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities • Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework. Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  46. Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in CEE/NIS Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in CEE/NIS - Capacity Building Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  47. IMPLEMENTATIONOF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVE Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  48. UNIDO Steering Committee Service Unit Managing board TF Methods TF Studies fp fp fp1 TF Training fp fp2 Regional Virtual Center (RVC) IMU fp TF Summit Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  49. TRAINING PROGRAMME • Module 1: Training on Organizing Foresight programmes – TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkey • Module 2: Training on TF Methodologies – Technology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic • Module 3: Seminar on Technology Foresight for Decision-Makers – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, Hungary • Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia • Module 5: Training of Trainers- ITPS Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

  50. GLOBAL FORUM EVENTS • 2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary • 2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, Turkey Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

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