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Solar Forcing on Climate Through Stratospheric Ozone Change

Le Kuai. Solar Forcing on Climate Through Stratospheric Ozone Change. Objectives. Quantify the solar influence on the climate change. - UV radiation changes ~3.4% - through ozone in stratosphere Explore the effect of the solar variability – -on ozone, radiative heating rates

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Solar Forcing on Climate Through Stratospheric Ozone Change

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  1. Le Kuai Solar Forcing on ClimateThrough Stratospheric Ozone Change

  2. Objectives Quantify the solar influence on the climate change. - UV radiation changes ~3.4% - through ozone in stratosphere Explore the effect of the solar variability – -on ozone, radiative heating rates -influences on climate dynamics and stratosphere-troposphere coupling

  3. The Statement of Problem

  4. Stratosphere Dynamical interannual variability 1) the annular modes (NAM, SAM) 2) QBO in the tropics 3) Solar cycle

  5. Solar Cycle vs Annular Modes Solar UV variations temperature and ozone changes in stratosphere Propagate downwards to troposphere • NAM tends to its negative phase at solar min • SAM - extend to upper stratosphere at solar max - confined in tropo-sphere at solar min

  6. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) Driven by small scale wave and tropical circulation. An alternation of anomalous eastward and westward equatorial stratospheric winds

  7. QBO and solar cycle Mayr et al. (2006): the QBO serves as an amplifier of the solar influence in the lower stratosphere. Hines(1974): solar variability could influence the interaction between planetary waves and zonal mean flow. This interaction is affected by solar variability and dependent on the QBO phase. 50-hpa geopotential height solar minima: low during the w QBO phase high during the e QBO phase solar maxima: opposite relationship

  8. Ozone in stratosphere EOF First mode: 45%, PC 28 months EOF Second mode: 34%, PC 11-yr - 10 DU about 4% of mean column ozone QBO 11-yr

  9. Previous achievement Ruzmaikin and Feynman (2002): relation between NAM and QBO Ruzmaikin et al. (2004): patterns of climate change at the Maunder Minimum Limpasuvan et al. (2005): PVI and SSW Camp et al. (2003): QBO and solar cycles as leading modes in ozone. Ruzmaikin et al. (2005): QBO signature in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Jiang et al. (2005): modeling of QBO in column O3 in the tropics

  10. Winter stratoshperic polar vortex weaken Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) temperature westerly zonal mean wind Planetary waves propagating from the troposphere (Andrew et al., 1987, … …)

  11. Polar vortex intensification (PVI) The circumpolar wind and polar cooling Induced by the gradual radiative cooling under reduced wave activity

  12. Proposal

  13. Approach Observation Idealized models 1-D photochemical model (Allen et al. 1981) 2-D model with simplified chemistry but more realistic transport (Yung and Miller 1997; Morgan et al. 2004) interactive 2-D model: THIN AIR (K. K. Tung) Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model (WACCM) Coupled models

  14. Task 1: Solar variability in UV, O3 and radiative heating Ozone layer is the link of sun and climate Ozone concentration depends on temperature Temperature varies according to the UV changes and dynamical processes (27-day range) Ozone connects the solar UV changes to heating rates and dynamics.

  15. Problem and Solution Observed Ozone Variation ~ 4% at 1-3 hPa Modeled Ozone Variation ~ 2% at 5 hPa Model/observation comparison - using the SORCE solar UV flux data - the MLS O3 over 27-day solar rotation cycle. 1. Ozone

  16. 3 DU increase in the ozone column - 0.3 °C warming in the stratosphere - 10 m increase in geopotential height. (Camp, et al. 2003) - will be confirmed by MODTRAN (Moderate resolution Transmittance) code (Berk et al. 1998) To improve the heating rate algorithms used in the interactive codes. 2. Heating Rate

  17. Without resolved gravity waves, most models (WACCM) do not exhibit an accurate QBO. Ozone variability underestimate. Large difference between model and observations. New physical parameterizations are included. (travaling gravity waves, a longwave radiation and merged shortwave radiation parameterization) Task 2: Impact of Ozone changes in GCM

  18. Extended Investigation andPerceived Impact • To investigate the role of QBO on vortex intensification and breakdown • To exam possible influences of the ENSO and Pacific-North American (PNA) patterns on evolution of the polar vortex forced by solar UV • The simple dynamical model (SDM) could be used to study QBO effects and solar variability. • The EMD method will be applied to analysis of data on the 11-year time scale

  19. Plan for proposal study and paper review • R-L Shia: introduce 2-D model, especially the THIN AIR. • Xun: talk about the ozone (QBO, interannual variability, N/SAM, … …) • Fai: the paper about solar cycle • Le Kuai: the paper about QBO, interaction of QBO and solar cycle

  20. Thank you!Questions

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