Maryland's Air Quality: Nitrogen Reductions and the Healthy Air Act

1. Maryland's Air Quality: Nitrogen Reductions and the Healthy Air Act Brian Hug, MDE November 20, 2006

2. Maryland’s Air Quality • We have problems with long term ozone exposure • Fine particulate levels are generally very close to the federal standard • Regional Haze issues • Air pollution contributes significantly to Bay pollution

3. 8-hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas

4. Fine Particle Nonattainment Areas

5. PM2.5 and 8Hr Ozone Nonattainment Areas Source: EPA

6. Nitrogen Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay

7. Good News – Ozone Levels • Ground Level Ozone • Monitored levels are lower than they have ever been • We came very very close to meeting the old ozone standard • Some regions of Maryland actually have achieved both the old and the new ozone standard • Maryland areas designated “Moderate” under new standard • Not “Severe” as they were under 1-hour standard

8. May-Sep, 1999-2002 May-Sep, 2003-2006 8-hr Ozone by Color Code More Good News on Ozone Levels • Maryland areas designated as “Moderate” under new standard • Not “Severe” as they were through 2005 • Many counties already monitor levels below the new standard • Exceedance days under the new standard have also dropped dramatically • 2003 to 2006 • 70 Days above the standard • 1999 to 2002 • 135 Days above the standard • Bad air days are generally cleaner (lower monitored levels) and occur in smaller areas *2006 is data is preliminary

9. http://www.lippmannforcongress.us/air%20pollution.jpg Good News – Local Reductions • Maryland has implemented one of the country’s most aggressive set of air pollution control regulations • Power plants to hair spray and perfume • Over 100 different regulations since 1990 • Emissions in Maryland have been cut by about 40% since 1990 • National average is about 20%

10. Good News – Mobile Source Reductions • Maryland programs like the our vehicle inspection program combined with federal motor vehicle emission requirements have reduced mobile source emissions in Maryland by about 50% since 1990. • Significant additional reductions are phased in in 2004 and 2007 • By 2030 mobile source emissions are projected to be 11% of what they were in 1990. • These reductions include significant projected growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (about 40%)

11. History of Power Plant Controls • Three Phases • NOx RACT • 1995 • About a 20 to 30 percent reduction in MD • Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) MOU • 1999/2000 • About a 65% reduction • The “SIP Call” • 2003/2004 • About a 85% reduction

12. Good News – Power Plant Reductions • Significant reductions from regional power plants between 2002 and 2005 • Billions of dollars being invested in “Selective Catalytic Reduction” (SCR) technology to reduce power plant NOx emissions SCR By State Over 50 % of the coal-fired capacity in key upwind states will be controlled with SCR by 2005 1 to 25 % 26 to 49% 50 % or greater

13. Counts of Major NOxPoint Source >= 25 tons/year Number of SCR Installationsas of 2006 Where Are the SCR Being Installed? Majority of SCR installation in states “upwind” of Maryland

14. Through the use a cap and trade approach, CAIR requires reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)emissions by EGU’s. • SO2 and NOx contribute to the formation of fine particles and NOx contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone. • CAIR covers 28 eastern states and the District of Columbia. CAIR Basics

15. CAIR CAPS Emission Caps (million tons) Annual SO2: 2010 = 3.6 2015 = 2.5 Annual NOx 2009 = 1.5 2015 = 1.3 Seasonal NOx: 2009 = 0.58 2010 = 0.48 Source: EPA

16. CAIR in 2010 Source: EPA

17. CAIR in 2015 Source: EPA

18. NOx Emissions (thousand tons) 2003 2009 2015 Maryland NOx emissions without CAIR 68 57 57 Maryland NOx emissions with CAIR N/A 16 12 CAIR Reduces Maryland’s SO2 Emissions According to EPA, By 2015 CAIR will help Maryland sources reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 56,000 tons or 82%* from 2003 levels. Maryland NOx Benefits * These assumptions do not include “cap and trade” via IPM Modeling Source: EPA

19. CAIR in the MD Region Source: EPA

20. The Maryland Healthy Air Act • Imposes upon Maryland’s largest coal-fired electric generating units emission emission caps on pollutants that contribute to ozone, particles, regional haze, acid rain, and bay pollution • Reduces mercury emissions from all MD coal-fired electric generating units • Prohibits Maryland power plants from acquiring out-of-state emissions allowances (trading) to meet emission caps

21. History of the HAA • For the past several years there has been a growing consensus in the MD general assembly that a power plant pollution law was needed • Several MD legislators continued to push the need for a law • This past year the Healthy Air Act was developed in conjunction with the developing Maryland Clean Power Regulations as a means of controlling power plant emissions • This much debated law was signed by the Governor on April 7th, 2006

22. Coal Fired Power Plants Covered by the Healthy Air Act R Paul Smith

23. Healthy Air Act BenefitsLarger, Earlier Emission Reductions

24. Maryland Healthy Air Act Largest Maryland Emission Reductions Ever 2006 1980-2002 2003 2004 1997 1993 2004 Regulations * Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)

25. Meeting the New Standards • Preliminary photochemical modeling analysis indicates that Maryland will attain the fine particulate standard and come very close* to the new ozone standard with stringent power plant rules like the HAA • Reductions from upwind power plants are also critical • Without the reductions from the Healthy Air Act … • Maryland will not be able to comply • Public health will remain at risk

26. CAIR Plus is an initiative being worked on by the OTC states to strengthen the air quality benefits of the CAIR program. • The EPA’s CAIR modeling does not show attainment for all of the states in the OTC (at least for ozone) • In order to attain both the 8-hour ozone standard and the PM2.5 standard in the timeframe allotted by the CAA, the OTC agreed to pursue a “tougher than CAIR” option What is CAIR Plus?

27. Basically, the proposed CAIR Plus program will reduce the total number of CAIR allowances being issued to sources by a percentage to further reduce emissions • The OTC is working on a model rule for this initiative • Stakeholders have been very active in the process What does CAIR Plus do?

28. Thanks…..Brian HugActing Deputy Program ManagerAir Quality Planning Program410-537-4125bhug@mde.state.md.us