Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 October 2009 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Northern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights North America: Heavy precipitation across northern California contributed to drought relief. The GFS forecasts mostly dry weather across the west and wet conditions across the Mississippi Valley for the upcoming week. Mexico and Central America: Tropical storm Rick contributed to precipitation across northwest Mexico. The GFS forecasts below average precipitation in southern Mexico and northern Central America for the upcoming week. Eurasia: Wet weather and below freezing temperatures impacted eastern Europe, while dry weather prevailed in southern India. Typhoon Lupit in the western Pacific is expected to impact northern Luzon in the next few days. The GFS forecasts dry conditions to continue in South Asia.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. During the last 4-weeks (20 Sep – 17 Oct 2009), equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The amplitude of the MJO index has increased during the previous week, with some eastward propagation, indicating a potentially developing MJO signal in the tropics. The GEFS predictions of the MJO index indicate a continued strengthening MJO during the next several days, with eastward propagation developing in week 2. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North America West Africa East Asia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: MAY-OCT Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in central India, parts of eastern China and Indochina, and Indonesia (Borneo and Java). Above average rainfall has occurred in the Philippines due in part to tropical cyclone activity. During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over southwest US while near average rainfall has occurred over northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Northern Hemisphere Circulation A A C Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During the 7-day period (12 - 18 Oct 2009), anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers were located west of Europe and western Russia and a cyclonic circulation center was located west of North America. • Below-average temperatures were observed over the eastern US and most of Europe, while above-average temperatures were observed over western Russia and eastern Asia.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During the 7-day period (12 - 18 Oct 2009), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) were observed over the northwest US, the eastern US, and eastern Europe to western Russia (top panel red ovals). • During the 7 day period (14 -20 Oct 2009) precipitation was observed over many of the same areas, while dryness dominated western Europe and India.

9. North America • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, precipitation was above average across the northwest US, northern California, and the southeast US. Rainfall in California contributed to significant drought relief. Precipitation was below average in the Alaskan panhandle, southeast Canada, and the northeast US. Tropical activity contributed to precipitation in northwest Mexico.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, precipitation was above average in southwest Alaska, northern California, the middle Mississippi Valley, and the southeast US. Tropical activity contributed to above average rainfall in northwest Mexico. Precipitation was below average in the Alaskan panhandle and the Yucatan peninsula.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was above average in southwest Alaska, northern California, and the east central US. Precipitation was below average in the Alaskan panhandle, southwest US and Yucatan peninsula in Mexico.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are near average in the northwest US and central US and below normal in Florida. Recent heavy rain has improved long term precipitation deficits in northern California.

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During 11 -17 Oct, temperatures were below average across Canada. Low temperatures were in the -5 to -15 deg C range across most crop areas in western Canada and below freezing temperatures (-10 to 0 deg C) ended the growing season in southeastern Canada. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

15. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During 11 - 17 Oct temperatures were below average across much of the central and eastern US. Minimum temperatures were below 30 degrees F in the high plains, Rockies, upper Midwest, western Corn Belt and New England. Freezes ended the growing season across much of the US corn belt. In Mexico temperatures were above average with low temperatures in the teens across the major crop regions. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 above average rainfall is forecast for the east-central US while near average precipitation is forecast for the northwest and eastern US. Dry conditions are forecast for the parts of western Mexico while above average precipitation is forecast for parts of eastern Mexico.

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 above average rainfall is predicted for the Alaskan panhandle and the interior southeast US. Near average precipitation is forecast for the northwest US, Midwest and the northeast US.

18. Forecast from 7 Oct 2009 Valid 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Forecast from 14 Oct 2009 Valid 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Observed 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: North America

19. Mexico and Central America • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the past 7 days, Tropical Storm Rick brought precipitation to northwest Mexico, and above average precipitation was observed over parts of eastern Mexico. Near average precipitation was observed over most of Central America.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in northwest Mexico (due to tropical activity), eastern Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and western Panama; precipitation was below average in the Yucatan peninsula.

22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was near average in central Mexico and below average in the Yucatan peninsula and eastern Panama. Tropical activity in recent weeks has contributed to above average precipitation in northwest Mexico and southern Baja.

23. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are near average in north central Mexico, southern Mexico and western Nicaragua. Precipitation is above average in northeast Mexico.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Week 1 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 below average precipitation is predicted for parts of western Mexico, Guatemala, and western Honduras, while above average precipitation is predicted for northeast Mexico and Nicaragua.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is predicted for parts of western Mexico while near average precipitation is predicted for the remainder of Mexico and most of Central America.

26. Forecast from 7 Oct 2009 Valid 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Forecast from 14 Oct 2009 Valid 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Observed 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Central America

27. Eurasia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the past 7 days, precipitation was above average in eastern Europe, parts of western Russia, and the northern Philippines. Precipitation was below average in southern India, Japan, and the Gulf of Guinea region in West Africa.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in eastern Europe, western Russia, the Horn of Africa, Japan, and the Philippines and Indonesia. Precipitation was below average in parts of western Europe (France and northern Italy), the Gulf of Guinea region in West Africa, southern India, and eastern China.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in eastern Europe, northwest Russia, north central India, the Philippines, and Indonesia, while precipitation was below average in western Europe, the Gulf of Guinea region in West Africa, and eastern China.

31. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in France, near average in western Hungary, above average in eastern Ukraine, and near average in the Siberia region of Russia.

32. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During 11 -17 Oct temperatures were below average in most of Europe with lows in the -5 to 5 degrees C range. Freezing temperatures brought an end to the growing season over much of the continent and snow showers to parts of eastern Europe. In northwest Africa temperatures were above average in Morocco and below average in eastern Algeria and Tunisia. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

33. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During 11 - 17 Oct temperatures were below average in the far western FSU and above average across the remainder of western Russia. Temperatures were near average in the New Lands of Russia. A season ending freeze occurred in the northern crop areas of western Russia. Two weeks ago was the first week low temperatures dropped below freezing across a widespread area of the Western FSU and the central FSU New Lands. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

34. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat, above average in south central India, below average in Manchuria, and above average in Luzon (tropical activity).

35. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During 11 - 17 Oct temperatures were near average in most of South Asia and eastern Asia. Extreme minimum temperatures dropped below freezing for a second week in a row across most of Manchuria and the north China Plain. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Week 1 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 forecasts show near average precipitation for eastern Europe, western Russia, the Gulf of Guinea region of western Africa, and the Horn of Africa. Below average precipitation is predicted in eastern and southern India and eastern China.

37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is expected in eastern India, China, and southeast Asia.

38. Forecast from 7 Oct 2009 Valid 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Forecast from 14 Oct 2009 Valid 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Observed 14 - 20 Oct 2009 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Eurasia

39. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information