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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This update from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP provides highlights, recent evolution, and current conditions of the South American monsoon system. It includes information on rainfall anomalies, tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies, atmospheric circulation patterns, wind and temperature anomalies, as well as bias-corrected precipitation forecasts.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 March 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the Brazilian Plateau. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northern and central Brazil, as well as portions of northern Argentina, northern Bolivia and western Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, northern Peru and central Colombia. • For Days 1-7 (18 - 24 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and central Brazil, southern Bolivia, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile and southern Peru. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Paraguay, southern Brazil, Ecuador and southern Colombia.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northern and central Brazil, as well as portions of northern Argentina, northern Bolivia and western Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, northern Peru and central Colombia.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northern South America as well as portions of central Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern Brazil, northern Argentina and Paraguay.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin (> 150 mm), the Brazilian Plateau (> 300 mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average across much of the tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 10 – 16 Mar 2019, anomalous cyclonic flow (center noted by red C) was observed over northern Argentina. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over northwestern South America and northern Brazil, and anomalous rising motion was observed over much of Paraguay, Bolivia, southern Brazil and northern Argentina. C • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 10 – 16 Mar 2019, above-average temperature was seen over eastern Brazil and below-average temperature over eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 18 March2019–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 18 March 2019– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (18 - 24 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and central Brazil, southern Bolivia, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile and southern Peru. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Paraguay, southern Brazil, Ecuador and southern Colombia. • For Days 8-14 (25 -31 Mar 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of northern and southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Bolivia, southern Chile and southern Peru. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central and northern Brazil, northern Peru and southern Colombia.

  13. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  14. Precipitation Climatology

  15. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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