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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts

Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 22, 2009. Outline.

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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts

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  1. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanDraft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 22, 2009

  2. Outline • Recap of Major AURORA Updates • Update of Regional Portfolio Standard (RPS) Resource Development • Partial Update of New Generating Resource Options • Forecast Wholesale Power Market Prices

  3. Major AURORA Updates • Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect • Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones • Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones • Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones • Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones • Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the zones • Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard resource development by zone • Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development by zone • Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines • Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts

  4. Higher Natural Gas PricesMedium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones

  5. Carbon Dioxide Emission PricesAll Zones

  6. WECC Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions

  7. PNW Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions

  8. Incremental RPS Energy by State

  9. CA Incremental RPS Energy Mix Target First Achieved in 2015

  10. WA Incremental RPS Energy Mix Full Target Achievement

  11. OR Incremental RPS Energy Mix Full Target Achievement

  12. MT Incremental RPS Energy Mix Full Target Achievement

  13. WECC New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology

  14. PNW New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology

  15. Energy SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs • “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions • WECC: 12,500 MWa by 2030 • PNW: 2,070 MWa by 2030 • RPS Resource Technologies Vary by State • CA Begins to Achieve Targets in 2015 • MT, OR, and WA Achieve All RPS Targets • “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions • WECC: 25,000 MWa by 2030 • PNW: 2,430 MWa by 2030 • PNW Additions begin in 2029

  16. WECC Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability

  17. PNW Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability

  18. WECC Incremental RPS Capacity and Peak Contribution

  19. WECC New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology

  20. WECC New AURORA Resource Peak Contribution by Technology

  21. PNW New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology

  22. PNW Total RPS and New AURORA Resource Capacity

  23. Capacity SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs • “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions • WECC: 37,800 MW by 2030 • PNW: 6,370 MW by 2030 • 30% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin • “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions • WECC: 61,640 MW by 2030 • PNW: 5,590 MW by 2030 • PNW Additions begin in 2029 • 70% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin

  24. Historic Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off-Peak Prices Source: IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)

  25. Forecast Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off- Peak Prices AO_6P_11112008_NEWRES_HD

  26. Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-CWholesale Power Price Forecast 80 70 60 50 Mid-C Power Prices (2006$/MWh) 40 Interim Price Forecast 30 Updated Demand/ Fuel 20 Updated RPS 10 Updated New Resources 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

  27. Next Steps • Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones • Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones • Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines • Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts

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