IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

2. IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes Christopher Monckton of Brenchley monckton@mail.com Heartland Conference, 2012 The Climate of Freedom

4. IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes The illogic of climate hysteria

5. Aristotle Singer

6. Alarmist fallacies 1 Conclusion: ‘There’s a consensus’ Classification: Headcount fallacy Latin name: Argumentum ad populum

7. 2 Conclusion: ‘Experts agree’ Classification: Reputation fallacy Latin: Argumentum ad verecundiam

8. 3 ‘We can’t explain warming without a strong effect from manmade CO2’ Fallacy of argument from ignorance Argumentum ad ignorantiam

9. 4 ‘Warming is accelerating, so we are the cause’ Red-herring fallacy Ignoratioelenchi

10. 5 ‘What about the cuddly polar bears?’ Fallacy of inappropriate pity Argumentum ad misericordiam

11. 6 ‘We add CO2 to the air: it causes warming: so observed warming is down to us’ Fallacy of false cause Post hoc ergo propter hoc

12. 7 ‘We tell the models CO2 causes much warming: they tell us just the same’ Begging-the-question fallacy Petitioprincipii

13. 8 ‘Warming makes hurricanes bad: Katrina was bad: so we caused it’ Fallacy of accident Argumentum a dictosimpliciter ad dictum secundum quid

14. 9 ‘Arctic ice is melting, so manmade global warming caused it’ Fallacy of converse accident Argumentum a dictosecundum quid ad dictum simpliciter

15. 10 ‘Agree with us or we’ll haul you up before the International Climate Court’ Argument of force Argumentum ad baculum

16. Rights of legal personality for ‘Mother Earth’ International ‘Climate Court’ against Western nations only CO2 concentration cut to 200 ppmv, killing trees, plants, and animals Proposals dropped from Durban draft, 2011

17. 11 ‘Monckton says he’s a Lord. Parliament’s clerks says he isn’t. So he’s wrong about the climate. Attack on the man, not his argument Argumentum ad hominem

18. 12 GOOGLE search term: ‘Monckton liar’ About 4,700,000 page hits found Argumentum Alinskiense

19. IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes It isn’t happening as predicted

20. IPCC models over-predict ocean warming Dr. David Evans +6 x 1022 J Climate models +4 x 1022 J Global ocean heat content +2 x 1022 J Observations ARGO buoys (0-700 m) –2 x 1022 J 2006 2008 2010 2012

21. 2011/12: sea-level is lowest in 8 years 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 m AvisoEnvisat (raw data) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

22. Sea level is rising at just 1.3 inches per century AvisoEnvisat (raw data) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

23. Hurricanes are quieter than for 30 years A.C.E., 1972-2012: Dr. Ryan Maue

24. Extentandtrendof global sea ice are almost unchanged in 33 years University of Illinois, 1979-2012

25. Methane concentration up just 20 ppbv in a decade CH4, 2000-2009: + 1/350 C° Australian Bureau of Meteorology CH4 concentration, Baring Hd., 1990-2009

26. IPCC over-predicts global warming IPCC HIGH High,mediumandlowprojections (IPCC, 1990) versus observed reality, 1990-2012 (UAH) Temperature change (C°) IPCC MEDIUM LOW UAH Dr. David Evans (2011) 1995 2000 2005 2010

27. IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes No scientific rationale for predicting what’s predicted

28. The Drake Equation

29. The Quack Equation

30. Radiative forcing 3.71 W m–2 Planck zero-feedback sensi- tivity parameter 0.31 K W–1 m2 Overall feedback factor 2.81 Equilibrium warming 3.26 K

31. Radiative forcing: Unmeasurable • Planck clim.sens. param.: Unmeasurable • Water-vapor feedback: Unmeasurable • Lapse-rate feedback: Unmeasurable • Surface albedo feedback: Unmeasurable • Cloud feedback: Unmeasurable • Feedback multiplier: Unmeasurable • Warming at 2x CO2: UNKNOWABLE!

32. where • Is the feedback amplification equation the right one? This is the big question. • Or is a homeostatic model more truly representative of our planet’s climate?

33. Net-negative feedbacks: likely Strongly net-positive feedbacks: implausible NegativePositive IPCC fantasy zone –0.5 +0.1

34. The process engineer’s limit IPCC fantasy zone Dr. David Evans

35. The process engineer’s limit Loop gain 3 2 –1 0 Loop gain The wrong equation?

36. Homeostasis: Scotese(1999) Temperature has varied by 8 C°, or <3%, either side of the 750m-year mean

37. An admission ‘In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.’ IPCC (2001, §14.2.2.2)

38. IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes It is more cost-effective to do nothing

39. No policy to abate global warming by taxing, trading, regulating, reducing, or replacing greenhouse-gas emissions will prove cost-effective solely on grounds of the welfare benefit from climate mitigation.

40. CO2 mitigation strategies that are inexpensive enough to be affordable will be ineffective; strategies costly enough to be effective will be unaffordable. Focused adaptation is better.

41. The cost of the premium exceeds the cost of the risk, so don’t insure.

42. Guevara Bast

43. IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes The moral question

44. Life expectancy (years) v. CO2 emissions (tons per capita)

45. Child mortality (per 1000 born) v. CO2 emissions (tons per capita)

46. National Geographic

47. ‘When millions are going hungry, it is a crime against humanity that food should be diverted to biofuels.’ Herr Jean Ziegler, UN Right-to-Food Rapporteur, 2007

48. Sight restored for $8