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This article discusses the opportunity for a bi-lateral approach to address climate change through technology innovation. It highlights the efforts of GE Energy and the importance of predictable stable public policy, investment in manufacturing supply chain, and clear policy in accelerating technology development and deployment.
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Climate Change: An Opportunity for a Bi-Lateral ApproachDriving Technology Innovation Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsCanada Institute May 23, 2007 Edward C Lowe General Manager GE Energy
GE Energy … a global technology business • Operating in more than 100 countries … 125+ years • 36,000 employees …~700 locations • 2006 revenue $19B • Investing in cleaner technologies • $3 billion invested over last 5 years • Growing annual investment to $1.5 B by 2010
Global power generation requirements Diverse Efficient Nuclear Wind Gas Coal Oil Geothermal Biomass Hydro Solar Emissions Reliability Efficiency + Driving cost of electricity down Affordable, reliable & environmentally responsible
Requirements For Global Deployment of Cleaner Power Generation Technologies • Predictable Stable Public Policy • Policy should lead technology • Set reasonable stretch performance goals • Technology Advancements • Innovation coupled with enforceable IP protection • Predictable policy provides confidence for companies to invest for the long term • Investment In Manufacturing Supply Chain • New technology requires significant manufacturing investments by the OEM and its suppliers • Predictable stable policy encourages investment
Clear Policy Accelerates Technology Development and Deployment – Wind Energy Global renewable installed capacity (GWs) • US capacity has grown from near zero to > 12,000 MW in 15 years • Canada’s capacity has grown to 1.5 GW, 47% CAGR in 5 years • 70 GW in 50 countries • Global Wind to grow 13% CAGR through 2030 ~210 182 160 Wind All other ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 Source: REN21 2006 update + GE est (2/07)
Global Wind deployment driven by technology advancements and public policy • Public Policy Incentives • Renewable Portfolio Standards • Feed In Tariffs • Production Tax Credits • Investment Tax Credits • Renewable Obligation Certificates COE (¢/kWh) 20 15 10 5 0 ‘85 ‘95 ‘05 • Technology • Investments • Project scale
IGCC – Cleaner By Design • Treats 1/100th volume • CO2 concentration 40-50% in syngas (IGCC) vs 14% in flue gas (PC) • 25% cost premium vs SCPC In Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants, gasification converts low cost fuels, like coal, into a high value, natural-gas-like fuel called synthesis gas (syngas) to fuel a combined cycle system. In pulverized coal (PC) plants, coal is fed into a boiler, which combusts the coal, followed by post combustion pollution controls.
IGCC: Emissions Approaching Natural Gas 0.16 PM10 0.15 SO2 Hg % Captured NOx 90%+ Average RecentPermit Data 0.10 0.09 Lb/MMBTU 50 - 90% Best IndividualPlant 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.017 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 PC PC IGCC IGCC 0.002 0.00 Hg NGCC Advanced PC/SCPC IGCC Source: GE internal data, average of 30 US permits granted, applications and publicly reported emissions 30-40% Less IGCC Environmental Benefits Versus Best in Class Supercritical Pulverized Coal PC PC IGCC IGCC Water Usage • 33% less NOx • 75% less SOx • 40% less PM10 • 90% + Hg removal • 30% less water • CO2 capture ready
Carbon Capture Technology Pathways Technologies CO2 $/Ton1 Post-Combustion Pre-Combustion • Amine Scrubbing • IGCC $441 $211 Today • Oxy-Combustion • Chilled Ammonia • Membranes O2/CO2//H2 • High efficiency shift • Pre-mix H2 combustor Post-Combustion Pre-Combustion ~$331 -- -- -- -- Developing 1 The Future of Coal, MIT 2007 Coal Energy Study
Economics • IGCC1 • SCPC2 • Mercury3 • 95% • $3,412 • 40%-70% • $37,800 • Removal % • $/lb • Water Makeup4 • 750 • gal/MW-hr • 1042 • CO25 • -13% • -15% • +32% • +32% • 35 • 15% • -18%6 • -30% • +83% • +68% • 75 • 123% • kW penalty • Net Equiv. Eff. • Capital Cost • COE Increase • Avoided Cost $/MT • Raw Water Usage 1GE Energy Gasification Radiant, Illinois #6, 630MW Net (baseline), Selexoltm AGR 2SCPC, 3500/1100/1100, Illinois #6, 550MW Net (baseline) Econaminetm scrubbing 3The Cost of Mercury Removal in an IGCC Plant, DOE NETL, final report, Sept 2002 4 Power Plant Water Usage and Loss Study, DOE NETL, August 2005 5 Cost and Performance Comparison of Fossil Energy Plants, DOE NETL, Report 401/53106, May 2007 (Final), 90% CO2 capture 6 Including STG equivalent power reduction from Econaminetm regeneration
Uncertain Policy Hinders Deployment - IGCC • GHG uncertainty delaying Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle • Capacity additions based on the lowest COE • Low carbon technologies will be disadvantaged • Policy required that monitizes the benefits or offsets their cost premium • EPAct of 2005 with ITC provisions was a significant step forward in accelerating deployment IGCC
Government Policy/Incentives to Accelerate Global Cleaner Coal • Expand the current investment tax credits authorized and funded under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to offset the current 20 – 25% CAPEX premium for IGCC or similar incentive • Monitize benefits of lower criteria emissions (SOx, NOx, PM) • Low carbon portfolio standard with trading among power generators for low carbon credits • Carbon capture requirements for new coal power plants phased in over time • CO2 allocations for new low carbon plants • EOR and saline aquifer carbon storage demonstration projects • Gov’t issued site selection criteria & monitoring reqm’ts • De minimis leakage and liabilities for leakage must be addressed
Accelerating Deployment of Low-Carbon Technologies Requires… • Predictable Long term Public Policies • Investments and advancements by technology providers • Collaboration among multiple stakeholders for successful implementation