Building Climate Adaptive Capacity: Challenges, Experiences, and Opportunities

1. Building Climate Adaptive CapacityDr. David CleavesUSDA Forest Service (retired)International Seminar on Climate Change and Natural Resource ManagementUS Forest Service and University of California at Davis May 7, 2018Washington DC davidacleaves@gmail.com 301.525.2332

2. Purposes • Offer some perspectives on key challenges of responding to climate change: • Sources of change for decisions • Facets of adaptation – resilience and sustainability • Policy • Institutions • Leadership • Relate experiences from the Forest Service in organizing and building climate-adaptive capacity - 2010-2015 • Reiterate the unique role of forests and natural resource leaders and managers in societal climate change responses.

3. Setting Records … Driving Volatility

4. Climate-Driven Futures – Little Long-Term ReliefExample: Madera County, CA Daily Max Temperature Daily Average Precipitation Source: NOAA Climate Explorer - http://toolkit.climate.gov/climate-explorer2

5. Climate Change ImpactsForested Watersheds • Precipitation • Snow - quantity and persistence • Rainfall – proportion of total and intensity in events • Long-term moisture stress – drought • Regeneration conditions and ecosystem transitions • Competitive advantage for invasive species • Contributor to insect, disease, large-scale die offs • Wildfires • Length of fire season • Fire Size • Fire intensity and severity

6. Western Watersheds – Where Adaptive Actions Shape Downstream Options • Multiple, connected stressors • Multiple values and demands • Intersections of important cycles: moisture, carbon, fire, other • Already stressed before climate influence grew • Baseline resilience varies widely

7. U.S. Forests Currently Offset About 12% Of the Nation’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Average per acre carbon in forests in the U.S. Carbon Sequestration of U.S. Forests 1000 500 0 -500 Massive logging Massive re-growth Million metric tonnes C / yr ←sink source→ Metric tonnes C /acre 0-40 41-55 56-70 71-85 85+ Year 1700 1800 1900 2000

8. Hot X Dry Mortality Source: Allen et al. 2010

9. Source: USDA Forest Service. Little et al. (Chpt 7) in Vose et al. eds. (2016)

10. California Tree Mortality – 2012-2016 Source: State of California – Tree Mortality Task Force and USDA Forest Service. http://www.fire.ca.gov/treetaskforce/

11. Elements of Organizational Adaptive Capacity • Policies – complementary signals and behavioral rules and principles • Institutions – effective deployment of knowledge for action • Leadership – engaging change processes and balancing flexibility vs. certainty

12. The Forestry Source, August 2016. Society of American Foresters

13. Structural Issues in Fire Financing:Impacts on US Forest Service Programs • Fire management risen from 15% of agency budget (1995) to 52% (2014) projected to 67% (2030) • Reductions in non-fire capacity – National Forests • Non-fire staff levels 44% • Vegetation management 24% • Roads 46% • Deferred maintenance 95% • Wildlife and fish habitat management 18% • Land management planning 64% • Inventory and monitoring 35% Source: USDA Forest Service 2015

14. Institutional Elements of Adaptive Capacity Adapted from McKinsey’s 7-S model of strategic organizational alignment (outside ring) and Paul C. Light’s Four Pillars of High Performance (Light 2005).

15. Roles of the FS Climate Change Advisor’s Office

16. US Forest Service Climate Change Scorecard Results - 2011-2015

17. Knowledge “Supply Chain” Problem/ Opportunity Adoption Research Networks Partnerships Delivery Synthesis Technology Development

18. Climate-Informed DecisionsMeeting reality in a “no-normal” world • Match analysis to the level of climate-sensitivity • Test expected outcomes in multiple, plausible futures (scenarios) • Frame problems and choose alternatives with information about relative vulnerability to climate and non-climate stressors • Continually revisit assumptions about future change • Build in adaptive responses • Consider mitigation (carbon) and adaptation implications together • Display and compare uncertainties

19. Climate Change Response Framework (East) Northwoods 64 million acres New England 52 million acres Urban Chicago Mid-Atlantic 60 million acres Central Hardwoods 42 million acres Central Appalachians 28 million acres

20. Adaptation Partners (West) Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership

21. Questions for Discussion and Reflection: • What are your enterprise’s most critical resilience and adaptation challenges? • What is most needed to address them - funding, expertise, science, organizational change, political support, social license …. ????? • What aspects of your enterprise are the least willing or able to adapt to the challenges? How can they become more adaptable? • What new leadership competencies, qualities, and/or attitudes will be needed? How can they be encouraged?

22. Looking and Working Beyond the Next Event …. Photo source: USDA Forest Service

23. Contacts and References • Dave Cleaves: davidacleaves@gmail.com • Forest Climate Working Group: • https://www.forestfoundation.org/forest-climate-working-group • USDA Forest Service – Office of Sustainability and Climate Change: http://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/oscc • USDA Forest Service – Climate Change Resource Center: http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/ • USDA Forest Service – Forest Carbon by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program: http://www.fia.fs.fed.us/forestcarbon/ • References: • National Climate Assessment Forest Sector Report: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/forests • Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: a Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/42610 • Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangeland in the United States: • http://www.fs.fed.us/science-technology/climate-change/drought-forests-and-rangelands