INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE EFFORTS BEYOND 2012 Report of the CLIMATE DIALOGUE AT POCANTICO

1. INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE EFFORTSBEYOND 2012Report of theCLIMATE DIALOGUE AT POCANTICO Presented by Elliot Diringer Pew Center on Global Climate Change at the UNFCCC Dialogue on Long-Term Cooperative Action to Address Climate Change Nairobi, Kenya November 16, 2006

2. The Dialogue • Off-line discussions among 25 senior policymakers and stakeholders from 15 countries on options for advancing the international climate effort beyond 2012 • Outcome: Ideas and approaches the group as a whole believes worthy of consideration by the broader policy community

3. Dialogue Participants • Policymakers • Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Tuvalu, United Kingdom, United States (Senate) • Stakeholders • Alcoa, BP, DuPont, Eskom, Exelon, Rio Tinto, Toyota; Pew Center, TERI, World Economic Forum

4. I. The Case for Action • Clear scientific justification for stronger action now and over the coming decades • Strong economic rationale for acting now to reduce emissions and develop new technologies • Delaying action could increase long-term costs and undermine economic growth

5. II. Framing the Future Effort • Climate change is inherently a global challenge; should be met with a global response • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change establishes a foundation, and fundamental guiding principles, for a global approach

6. Framing the Future Effort A post-2012 framework must: • Engage major economies • Provide flexibility for different national strategies and circumstances • Integrate climate and development • Couple near-term action, long-term focus • Address adaptation needs • Be viewed as fair

7. Major Economies Top 25 in Population Top 25 in GDP Netherlands, (Taiwan) Thailand Canada, S.Korea, Australia, S.Africa, Spain, Poland, Argentina USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, Mexico, France, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey Bangladesh, Nigeria, Viet Nam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo (DR) Top 25 in Emissions Ukraine, Pakistan S. Arabia

8. III. Options for Strengthening Multilateral Action Six Elements: • Targets and trading • Sectoral approaches • Policy-based approaches • Technology cooperation • Adaptation • Aspirational long-term goal

9. Linking Elements I: Parallel Tracks • Groups of like-minded countries form agreements along different tracks • Could report to the Framework Convention • Would launch action on multiple fronts, build confidence, provide lessons for future • But ad hoc mix may not yield an overall effort that is sufficiently timely or robust

10. Linking Elements II: An Integrated Approach • Linking and negotiating across tracks may produce a more balanced and ambitious effort • Negotiations could be could take the form of sequential bargaining • Critical issue: terms of engagement • May need to agree at the outset that certain countries negotiate within designated tracks appropriate to their circumstances

11. A Dialogue Among Major Economies • Need political consensus among 15-30 key countries on the nature and scope of future multilateral efforts • Leaders should convene an informal high-level dialogue to scope out possible post-2012 approaches • Dialogue, not negotiation • Any formal agreements would be pursued under the Framework Convention

12. Summary • Engage major economies through flexible framework under UNFCCC • An integrated approach allows more balanced and ambitious effort • Informal dialogue outside UNFCCC to help achieve political consensus

13. Report of the CLIMATE DIALOGUE AT POCANTICO available in English, Spanish, French, and Chinese at www.pewclimate.org