Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting October 1, 2013

1. Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council MeetingOctober 1, 2013 Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

2. New Presentation Tool – released monthly ! Idaho Economic Situation Report September 2013 Idaho Department of Labor Roger Madsen, Director Georgia Smith, Deputy Director Bob Uhlenkott, Chief Research Officer Prepared by the Communications and Research Division

3. Idaho economic report Overview • Executive summary • Economic and labor statistics for the nation and Idaho. • Unless noted otherwise, all data in this presentation is seasonally adjusted.

4. Economic report: executive summary August - 2013 • Idaho’s labor market demonstrated increased weakness in the unemployment rate, and limited negative movement in its labor force and total nonfarm employment. • Unemployment Rate is 6.8% for August. • Third consecutive month Idaho’s unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percent. • Labor force decreased by 0.1%. • At 300, total nonfarm remained essentially unchanged, a 0.0% rounded. • National unemployment rate decreased by one-tenth from July to 7.3%. • National total nonfarm increased slightly by 0.1% • U.S. Gross Domestic Product • Grew by .4% in the second quarter , 2013. • First quarter growth revised down to .1% growth. Previous estimate indicated 0.6% growth. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

5. Labor market indicators: change summary Analyses • This is the third consecutive month that Idaho’s unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percent. • Labor force and nonfarm data points indicate flat over-the-month changes from July. • Over-the-year changes show an improved unemployment rate and nonfarm employment in Idaho, while the labor force has changed little. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor

6. Comparative unemployment rates with recessions (seasonally adjusted)

7. Labor force:

8. Labor force:participation rate Participation Rates! Today it is 64.1% In the 90’s 70% 14.6% UE Rate

9. Idaho Unemployment County and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Unemployment (seasonally adjusted) • Counties: • In August 2013, six Idaho counties experienced double-digit unemployment rates: • Adams – 14.7% • Clearwater – 13.19% • Shoshone – 12.3% • Valley – 11.1% • Benewah – 10.7% • Lemhi – 10.5% • One year ago eight counties: • Adams – 16.1% • Camas – 14.5% • Valley – 13.3% • Clearwater – 13.1% • Benewah – 12.1% • Shoshone – 11.6% • Boundary – 10.5% • Lemhi – 10.1% • Lowest county rates: • Oneida – 3.9% • MSAs: • Highest unemployment rate: Grangeville 8.5% in August 2013. • Lowest unemployment rate: Rexburg with 5.6%.

10. Idaho nonfarm jobs:

11. Comparative total nonfarm growth:Idaho - national 2.8% annualized 1.6% annualized

12. Idaho nonfarm jobs:seasonally adjusted statewide change by industry *While typically flat this month, Idaho’s Construction industry has the strongest seasonally adjusted August in a decade. *Manufacturing, had a positive change (0.3%) for the 4th year in a row. *Construction increased 4% from August of 2012, an unusually strong movement for August.

13. Idaho nonfarm jobs:seasonally adjusted metropolitan area change *At -1.4%, Pocatello’s preliminary August change is the largest decline since 1990. *Pocatello was the only MSA with a negative year-over-year change (-0.8%).

14. Employment recession recovery:

15. National GDP Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

16. Idaho GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

17. Housing starts:

18. Annual population growth: Aging Population

19. Claimant Migration

20. Education and Training Pay

21. Thank You! Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov 208.332.3570 ext. 3217