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Colorado Flood

Colorado Flood. Where it rained. When it rained. Why it rained  strong ridge weak front easterly flow into terrain convectively favorable environment. Deep moisture +4 s. Easterly flow into the terrain +4 s.

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Colorado Flood

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  1. Colorado Flood

  2. Where it rained

  3. When it rained

  4. Why it rained strong ridge weak front easterly flow into terrain convectively favorable environment

  5. Deep moisture +4s

  6. Easterly flow into the terrain +4s

  7. Pattern of heavy rainfallPontrelli et al 1999: a) Madison County 1995, b) Fort Collins 1997, c) Rapid City 1972 and d) Big Thompson Canyon 1977

  8. Fronts and winds same 4 Cases

  9. Idealized pattern for orographic record rainfall

  10. Predictable? EC Forecasts QPF

  11. EC Pattern

  12. EC PW pattern

  13. EC Winds

  14. SREF Winds

  15. GFS QPF

  16. SREF Prob 150 mm

  17. Prob 100 mm

  18. Mean QPF and 50mm contours by member

  19. Summary • Pattern known to be associated with upslope and similar to many heavy rain events involving terrain • Pattern well predicted • QPF variable and had uncertainty issues along with clues to the rainfall potential

  20. Late summer/autumn Fog • Wisconsin case of using satellite data for fog • GOES lacks resolution sometimes • Suomi/NPP Day night band • Local State College Native Scott Lindstrom • http://fusedfog.ssec.wisc.edu/?p=531

  21. Fog

  22. Current Forecast • Will it rain for PSU-KSU • Why most likely it shall!

  23. GEFS-SREF say we-are-ALL WET

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