Global Trends in Online Learning the Big Picture, Threats , Opportunities and Change

1. Global Trends in Online Learning the Big Picture, Threats, Opportunities and Change Next Generation Learning Conference 2014 Dalarna, 20 March 2014 Gard Titlestad Secretary General International Council For Open and Distance Education, ICDE

2. The leading global membership organization for open, distance and online education • An NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the attainment of quality education for all • ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the learner must be central. • Members in all regions of the world 25 Years Support From Norway

3. What do we want to achieve?Re-imaging Higher Education: Taking a Broader View of Diversity Professor Ellen Hazelkorn Vice President of Research and Enterprise, and Dean of the Graduate Research School Higher Education Policy Research Unit (HEPRU) Dublin Institute of Technology 5th Global Meeting of Associations (GMA V), Manchester, April 2013

4. A World-Class Higher Education System • Coherent portfolio of horizontally diverse and distinctive high performing, complementary and actively engaged institutions: • Providing a breadth of educational, research and student experiences which offer the widest chance to the broadest number of students; ; • Working collaboratively to maximize capacity beyond individual institutional capability. • Developing knowledge and skills that citizens need to contribute to society throughout their lives, while attracting international talent; • Graduates able to succeed in the labour market, fuel and sustain personal, social and economic development, and underpin civil society; • Operating successfully in the global market, international in perspective and responsive to change. Professor Ellen Hazelkorn

5. From Elite to Universal Participation

6. The BIGpicture

7. The BIG Picture • Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world South America India Sweden The US Russia Australia Africa China

8. The BIG picture • The growth in higher education is massive

9. Mill. students 400 2007 - 2030 EU/OECD projections theneed for HE by 2030: 400 mill. 320 2030 2044

10. The BIG picture • The changes in higher education is dramatic

11. The BIG picture • MOOC took the world (?) with storm, peaked, and opened up for massive innovation in education

12. Where? Numbers per March 2014 Coursera ”Learning Hubs”

13. Numbers per March2014 http://openeducationeuropa.eu/en/european_scoreboard_moocs

14. 2013 (ECAR)

15. Who take MOOC ? 2013 (ECAR)

16. MOOC or MOC Paul Stacey, Associate Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons, Oktober 2013

17. ”LORD knowsthere’s a lot of bad news in theworldtoday to getyoudown, butthere is onebigthing happening thatleavesmeincrediblyhopefulaboutthefuture, and that is thebuddingrevolution in global online highereducation. Nothing has more potential to lift more peopleoutofpoverty — by providing them an affordableeducation to get a job or improve in thejobthey have. Nothing has more potential to unlock a billion more brains to solvetheworld’sbiggest problems.” Thomas Friedman, columnist and author

18. Karl Aberer Pierre Dillenbourg http://moocs.epfl.ch/eu-mooc-summit

19. Mind to MOOCsOverview, reflections and brainstorming in whitening water To be reported to the ICDE StandingConference of Presidents meeting and Policy Forum Think tank 20 October 2013, Open Universitty of China, Beijing, China

20. Excerpts from ICDE Mind to MOOCs report • A few of the issues and recommendations • Equity. • Consider this initiative as an opportunity to rethink our role as universities and take up MOOCs.  . • Integrate open MOOCs in our respective institutions • National, regional and transnational cooperation is a great opportunity in developing MOOC and MOOC-alike concepts. • Diversity. • Undertake contextualized strategies when implementing MOOCs • Be aware of cultural and language aspects → anglo-centric core, colonialism • OER and OCW as the basis for MOOC will ease contextual, cultural and language adaptation • Innovation and Quality. • Improve and innovate on pedagogical aspects: methodologies, content formats, assessment. • Provide learning analytics as a tool for improving the courses. Connect the learning process and research for new knowledge and improvements. • Promote research about MOOCs. • Keep moving towards quality. Beyond quantity of MOOCs and users, the focus on quality is essential for sustainability.

21. The BIG picture • Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning are converging => Blended ODL Blended Campus • And as a result – an even more diverse higher education landscape……

22. The BIGpicture • Three streams work in parallel: • Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile: freedom from distance, mobile broadband: freedom from location • New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new opportunities for student supportive teaching • New knowledge about the brain and learning, new knowledge in neurosciences

23. Big sciencelightstheway to an understandingofhowtheworld's most complexmachinegives rise to ourthoughts and emotions

24. The BIG picture • We are in the beginning (of the beginning) – example: mobile technology

25. Weare in thebeginningofthebeginning State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org

26. AfricanUnderseaCablesnov. 2013 We are in the beginning of the beginning http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/

27. The Governmentsmoves…..

28. Ref. YangZhijian, president Open Universityof China, ICDE world Conference, Tianjin, China October 2013

30. The Governmentsmoves…..

31. The Norwegian MOOC Commission wasappointed by Royal Decreeon 21 June 2013. • One subreportdelivered by 13 December 2013. • Final report, green paper, expected in June 2014. • A whitepaperonstructures and financialregulationsforeseen in 2015. http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/kd/dep/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/utvalg-om-hoyere-utdanningstilbud-pa-net.html?id=732679

32. Widedefinition http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/kd/dep/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/utvalg-om-hoyere-utdanningstilbud-pa-net.html?id=732679

33. The Commission’srecommendations • Ch. 6.2 Innovative education science and quality development • research-based knowledge, learning analytics • Incentives • skills for faculty and staff • assess skills developed through MOOCs without exams and credits • Ch. 6.3 Infrastructure for MOOCs and other digital learning • Ch. 6.4 Skills needed by business and the labour market • Ch. 6.5 MOOCs as part of the Norwegian degree system: accreditation and recognition of MOOCs • Ch. 6.6 Student fees and the free principle in higher education • Ch. 6.7 Educational support • Ch. 6.8 Financing higher education http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/kd/dep/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/utvalg-om-hoyere-utdanningstilbud-pa-net.html?id=732679

34. The CONCRETE example

35. January 2014

42. The BIG trends

43. Trends, within the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation Automation Robots Sensors Open Access US quadruppling 2020 – 80% connected Open Research Internet of things Open Data eScience eInfrrastructures Southern Europe…. Access Open Innovation Developing economies Flexibility HE needs – 1 U a week Globalisation Employability Enabling economic growth ICT Habitus Lifelong Demographics Disruptive Innovations

44. The BIGchange?

45. The FutureofEmployment: How susceptible arejobs to computerisation? About47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314 ComputerizationThreatens One Third of Finnish Employment http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm 37% of Danish jobsclassifiedwithhighprobability for beingphasedout http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner Technology and jobs; Comingto an officenearyou http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready The futureofjobs; The onrushingwave http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

46. The BIGGERopportunities

47. ”For the first time in human historywe have thetools to enableeveryone to attain all theeducationtheydesire.” (Wiley, Green, & Soares, 2012) Dramaticallybringingdownthecostofeducationwith OER: How openeducationresourcesunlockthedoor to freelearning.

48. From the UNESCO OER Declaration • Foster awareness and useof OER • Encouragethedevelopment and adaptationof OER in a varietyoflanguages and culturalcontexts • Encouragetheopenlicensingofeducational materials producedwithpublicfunds. ICDE workshouder to shoulderwith UNESCO and other stakeholders to have thisimplementet

49. OER and Open and Distance Learning canincreasetheimpactofinvestments in knowledge Open Access – openscience Research based OER Research basedteaching High qualityeducation Research basededucation Resource basededucation Open education OER & ODL Innovation in education – openinnovation Innovatethelearning system – fliptheclassroom Knowledge supply for innovation

50. The nextyears • Open, distance, online and eLearning – enables: • Equal, easy and affordableaccess • QualityHighereducation • Better learningoutcome • Student success • And thethreats? The otherwayaround…..