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Earthquake Risk in the Bay Area: The Hayward Fault

Earthquake Risk in the Bay Area: The Hayward Fault. Ellen Metzger BAESI March 23, 2013. Earthquakes in the Bay Area Can We Predict Them?. Science vs. pseudoscience Short-term prediction vs. long-range forecasting. Prediction vs. prevention. Long-Range Forcasting.

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Earthquake Risk in the Bay Area: The Hayward Fault

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  1. Earthquake Risk in the Bay Area:The Hayward Fault Ellen Metzger BAESI March 23, 2013

  2. Earthquakes in the Bay AreaCan We Predict Them? • Science vs. pseudoscience • Short-term prediction vs. long-range forecasting. • Prediction vs. prevention

  3. Long-Range Forcasting • Based on knowledge of when and where past earthquakes have occurred. • Paleoseismology – record of past offsets and recurrence interval • Seismic gaps

  4. The Hayward Fault America’s Most Dangerous Fault? A tectonic “time bomb”

  5. Bay Area EQ Probabilities Hayward – Rodgers Creek Faults have the highest probabilities Forecasting(probability) vs. prediction Source: USGS

  6. Paleoseismology - the study of prehistoric earthquakes.  http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/images/paleosseis.gif http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs152-99/images/faults.jpg

  7. http://1868alliance.org/images/photos

  8. M7 1868 Hayward earthquake • 30 fatalities, 5 in San Francisco (12th most lethal US earthquake) • $350,000 (>$5-100M in 2007 dollars) in damage in San Francisco alone • Extensive damage in San Leandro, Hayward, and Fremont (total population less than 2000) • Bay Area population was 260,000 (it is now 27 times larger) Source: USGS

  9. 1868 Hayward Earthquake (“The Great SF Earthquake”) Source: USGS 38° 37.5° -121.5° -121°

  10. Earthquake of M > 6.8 on the Hayward Fault? A major earthquake today on the Hayward fault • would impact more than 5 million people and • Cause estimated total economic losses to residential and commercial properties would likely exceed $165 billion. • Other factors, such as fire, damage to infrastructure and related disruption would substantially increase the loss http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1899&from=rss

  11. Did You Feel It? http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi.php

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