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Risk Assessment Facts, Myths and Trends James Austin, Ph.D. 2008

Risk Assessment Facts, Myths and Trends James Austin, Ph.D. 2008. The Need to Manage Risk. Public Safety – Reduce Recidivism Rates and Allows for Better Investments Increases Credibility with the Public and Legislature

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Risk Assessment Facts, Myths and Trends James Austin, Ph.D. 2008

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  1. Risk Assessment Facts, Myths and Trends James Austin, Ph.D. 2008

  2. The Need to Manage Risk • Public Safety – Reduce Recidivism Rates and Allows for Better Investments • Increases Credibility with the Public and Legislature • Reduces the potential for disproportionate use of incarceration by Gender, Race and Ethnicity • Better use of public resources

  3. The Key Decision Points • 1. Initial Parole Eligibility Hearing • a. Parole • b. Continue (why and for how long) • c. “Serve All” • 2. Rehearing (more of the initial hearing) • 3. Mandatory Parole • 4. Imposition of Supervision Conditions • 5. Parole Revocation • a. Detain or Release • b. Period of Incarceration

  4. Sources • Statistics and Trends -- Bureau of Justice Statistics, http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.htm#Prisoners • Research -- National Institute of Justice, http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/ • Technical Assistance – National Institute of Corrections • Program Money and TA – Bureau of Justice Assistance, http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bja/

  5. Adult Correctional Populations 1980-2005

  6. Past and Current Projected Prisoner Population

  7. Key Concepts in The Prediction of Risk • Variance • Probabilities • Independent Variables – The Predictors 4. Dependent Variable – What We Are Trying to Predict • Static Predictors – Things That Do Not Change 6. Dynamic Predictors – Things That Do Change

  8. Variance in the Use of Imprisonment

  9. Variance in the Use of Probation and Parole

  10. Variance in Life Chances of Being Imprisoned in USA1974-2001

  11. Variance in Key Criminal Justice Decision Points

  12. Variance in Average Sentences and Time ServedBy Race – 2002 Prison Releases Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Correctional Reporting Program 2002

  13. Variance in Crime Risk Factors by Race

  14. Crime and Welfare 1931-2003 7,000.0 16,000.0 14,000.0 6,000.0 12,000.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 4,000.0 Crime Rate Welfare Recipients 8,000.0 3,000.0 6,000.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 0.0 0.0 Year

  15. More Key Concepts on Risk • Measurement Error • Triangulation (Multiple Sources) • Public Records • Interviews • Questionnaires • Observation • Reliability • Inter-Reliability (Do we all do it the same way) • Intra-Reliability (Do I do it the same way) • Validity • Internal Validity (does it work in my place) • External Validy (does it also work in other places)

  16. Still More Concepts • An Instrument Can Be Reliable but Not Valid • An Instrument Cannot Be Unreliable and Valid • False Positives (should have recidivated but did not) • False Negatives (should have not recidivated but did) • Multi-collinearity (independent predictors)

  17. And More Concepts • Clinical Judgments Alone Are In-Effective in Predicting Risk • Statistical Models Are Effective In Predicting General Recidivism • Statistical Models Are In-Effective in Predicting “Rare Events” • Violent Crimes • Career Criminals • Sex Crimes • The Problem of “Low” Base Rates

  18. Current State of Risk Assessment • There is no superior or better risk assessment instrument or system • There are commercial and public risk systems that can work • The differences are in costs and staff skill requirements • Few states have risk assessment systems that have been properly developed and implemented • Lack of reliability and validity

  19. Some Basics About Criminal Behavior • Criminal Behavior (Like Other Behavior) Is Learned • Criminal Careers Have Starting And Ending Points • Most Criminal Behavior is Episodic in Nature • Very Few “Criminals” Are Career Criminals • Places and Other People Impact Behavior

  20. What About Treatment? • Good treatment in prison is rare 2. The “market share” problem 3. Most one can expect is 10% reduction in the expected recidivism rate • Education and vocational training should be priorities 5. Wrong Use of Treatment Increases Risk

  21. Percent of Arrests Attributed to Released Prisoners Type of arrests N % Total Arrests in Seven States 1994-97 2,994,868 100% Arrests of Prison Releases 1994-97 140,534 5% Percent that are Violent Crimes 36,000 1%

  22. 1983 and 1994 Recidivism Rates

  23. Method of Release and Re-Arrest

  24. Success on Parole and Probation – 1995-2003

  25. Length and Stay and Recidivism - Louisiana

  26. The Impact of Treatment by Risk Level

  27. Key Points About Offender Risk Prisoners are slowing down or ending their criminal activities Probation versus prison is slightly more effective Extending or reducing prison terms is not related to recidivism Extending or Reducing parole/probation supervision is not related to recidivism Prisoners who “max out” do better than those paroled Small Percent (5%-10%) of all crimes are committed to persons released from prison. Very small % of released prisoners are re-arrested for murder or rape (less than 1%) and very small % of released murders or rapists are re-arrested for these crimes (under 2%). Treatment for Low Risk Persons Increases Recidivism while treatment for high risk persons reduces recidivism

  28. Static Factors Age at First Arrest Gender Prior Supervision Failures (recent) Mental Health Problems Crimes of Economic Gain Substance Abuse History Prior Gang/Peer Associations Dynamic Factors Current Age Current Education Level Current Employment Marital/Family Status Gang/Peers Associations Residency Treatment (Good versus Bad) Institutional Conduct Factors that Predict

  29. Vermont Risk Level Results

  30. Kentucky Parole Board Risk Assessment Decision by Risk

  31. Kentucky Parole Board Risk Assessment Decision by Offense Severity

  32. Texas Expected Levels of Parole Grants

  33. Texas FY 06 Actual Versus Expected Grant Rates

  34. Do’s and Don’ts • Must Be Tested On the Your Correctional Population • Must Conduct Objective and Independent Inter-Reliability and Validity Tests • Must Allow for Dynamic and Static Factors that Have Been Well Accepted and Tested in a Number of Jurisdictions • Must Be Compatible With the Staff’s Skill Level • Must Be an Opportunity to Depart from Scored Risk Levels Based on a System of Structured Clinical Judgments • Must Have “Face Validity” with Staff, Offenders and Policy Makers

  35. Strategic Steps for Building Risk Assessment Instrument Agree on the Need for Risk Assessment Conduct Recidivism Study of Released Prisoners Build Risk Instrument Based on Recidivism Conduct Reliability Study Finalize Risk Instrument Implement/Monitor

  36. Summary Points • You cannot afford not to use risk assessment in release and supervision decisions • Not using risk assessment worsens public safety • Key Areas of Concern • Imposition of treatment and conditions to low risk prisoners • Excessive periods of supervision (more than 12 months) • Re-incarceration for non-criminal behavior or misdemeanor crimes • Excessive periods of confinement – the diminishing return problem • The release decision • The revocation decision • The lack of information and its contribution to mythology • DUIs • Sex Offenders • Public safety • Gender and Racial Bias

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