Environmental Science: Implications for Management

1. Environmental Science: Implications for Management Jennie C. Stephens Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Policy (ES&P) International Development, Community, and Environment (IDCE) Lecture for MGMT 5505: Green Business Management September 14, 2009 Overview I. Earth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems of water, air and climate An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy Implications for Management

2. Earth’s Systems Complexity, Cycles & Interconnections • A system is a collection of interdependent parts (with flows and stores) enclosed within a defined boundary. • The earth has four major systems • Lithosphere – soil, rock • Hydrosphere - water • Biosphere – living organisms • Atmosphere – air • Human activity is disrupting these systems in complex, ways Dave McKay, 2009

3. Lithosphere Glencoe Text, csc.gallaudet.edu

4. Hydrosphere: The Water Cycle

5. Biosphere Figure source from Yucca Mountain website www.yuccamountain.org/main/newslett1005.htm

6. Atmosphere Source: http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astrowiki/

7. Unprecedented change in past 50 years Environmental changeSocietal ChangeTechnical Change Steffen, Crutzen et al 2007

8. Positive Relationship between system parts Increase in one part means increase in another Decrease in one part means decrease in another Symbolized with a Amplifies behavior Negative Relationship between system parts Increase in one part means a decrease in another Decrease in one part means increase in another Symbolized with a Balances behavior System Structure - + A complex, dynamic system (e.g. a living organism) consists of many positive and negative relationships

9. Feedback Loops The effects of a disturbance on a system can be evaluated using the notion of a feedback loop.

10. Why are Earth’s Systems Difficult to Manage? • Unpredictability (stochastic behavior) • Variance is the degree or dispersion or scatter in a variable (large variance means low predictability) • Unpredictability and extreme events make it difficult to manage environmental systems • Complexity • The number of storages, flows, and the number and strength of feedback loops in a system

11. The Scientific Method

12. Reductionistic versus Systems • A Reductionist Approach is based on a premise that the best way to learn about something is to break it into its parts and study parts separately. • This approach has been quite successful in the natural sciences (biology, chemistry, physics) • Limits of the reductionist approach • General Systems Theory- concerned with problems of relationships, structures, and interdependence, rather than constant attributes of object. • Integrated Systems Approach

13. Sustainability ScienceAn emerging field defined by the urgent problems it addresses rather than the disciplines it employs Integrated education to prepare society to deal with increasingly complex, interconnected urgent problems Use-inspired research defined by urgent and complex problems rather than disciplines Connecting knowledge and action, researchers working with practitioners

14. What are some examples of interconnecting challenges? • The earth has four major systems • Lithosphere – soil, rock • Hydrosphere - water • Biosphere – living organisms • Atmosphere – air • Human activity is disrupting these systems in complex, ways Dave McKay, 2009

15. OverviewEarth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problemsAn Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and EnergyImplications for Management

17. CO2 CH4 NOx, others (CFCs, PFCs)

19. Evidence that climate is changing (cont) • In addition to temperature observations over recent decades also show that… • Evaporation & rainfall are increasing; • Permafrost is melting; • Corals are bleaching; • Glaciers are retreating; • Sea ice is shrinking; • Sea level is rising; • Wildfires are increasing; • Storm & flood damages are soaring.

20. Why is climate change most serious and most difficult to manage of all environmental problems? • Climate is the envelope for all of earth’s systems • Truly global impacts, everyone will be influenced somehow • Resulting primarily from burning fossil fuels, the foundation of world economies • Changing status quo of our energy system extremely difficult • Uncertainty and complexity unlike other issues • uncertainty cuts both ways, uncertainty makes issue more serious not less • Scientific arguments has confused the public • Time lag makes management/planning difficult • Steps taken now will have uncertain impacts on the future • Difficult for political or business leaders to demonstrate climate improvements

21. Climate Change is Primarily an Energy Problem Increasing CO2 concentrations Increasing energy demand

22. Energy for heat, light, and mobilityU.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2004 IEA, 2006

23. Electricity sector is also mostly fossil fuel About 1/3 of primary energy is used to generate electricity. About 2/3 of this comes from fossil fuels. Other renewable 2004 Total = 17,450 billion kWh Holdren, 2007

24. CO2 Emissions per person Source: UNEP

25. Armond Cohen, CATF, 2007

26. OverviewEarth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problemsAn Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and EnergyImplications for Management

27. Societal responses to climate change Mitigation: attempting to reduce the impacts of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Transforming our energy system. Adaptation: Adjusting to new conditions, increasing resilience to change, capacity building Suffering: Some degree of suffering is inevitable and already occurring Most climate policy debates focus on mitigation, but adaptation is becoming increasingly important

28. Integrated Consideration of Problems/Challenges & How to Address them Environmental Changes Technical Changes More efficient technologies Low-carbon energy, etc. Climate change Biodiversity loss Deforestation Water degradation Air pollution Societal Changes Policy Behavior Change Globalization Greater inequality & polarization

29. Renewable energy technologies Wind Solar Hydro Geothermal

30. What Climate Policy’s Have been Implemented? • Global UNFCC 1992 agreement to achieve “Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system…” • Kyoto Protocol, 1997. National commitments to reductions below 1990 levels during 2008-2012 • Once 55% of industrial emissions ratified (Russia in Nov. 2004) entered into force Feb. 2005 • Copenhagen – post-kyoto Negotiations in December 2009 • National - 2002 Bush administration announced would not sign Kyoto – instead committed to reducing GHG intensity (GHG/$GDP) • Regional - California • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) • Local • Worcester Climate Action Plan • 20% renewable energy by 2010 • Institutional Policy • Businesses • Universities – President’s Climate Commitment

31. US Climate Action Partnership: Business and NGO Partnership Resistance to social change to address climate change is reducing, but still very difficult to change the status quo reliance on fossil fuels.

32. US Climate Action Partnership: Business and NGO Partnership • Recommend U.S. legislation to slow, stop, and reverse the growth of GHG emissions • Leadership will assure long-term U.S. competitiveness • Mandatory, but flexible approaches to managing carbon, encourage developing countries • Influence transportation, large point sources, and energy use in buildings (commercial and residential) • Market based, cap & trade, tax reform, RD&D, etc. • International cooperation • Incentives for technology, near-term action (before mandatory limits), • Goal for CO2 450-550ppm • Uniform price for GHG emissions across sectors

33. Challenge of Climate Change Management in Institutions of Higher Education • 2007 -Clark signed the Presidents Climate Commitment – Pledging Carbon Neutrality • Clark’s Climate Action Plan – climate neutral by 2030; enhance integration of sustainability into the University’s planning, decision-making processes and behaviors.

34. Concluding Remarks on the Climate/Energy Challenge As a global citizen Climate change - the most serious environmental threat to human civilization. Demand for action growing. As a scientist No “silver bullet” technical solution exists – need to explore and move forward with a portfolio of technological and social change options As a policy analyst Improved understanding of science and technology by the public and policy makers will increase our chances of mitigating disastrous impacts As a teacher We will increasingly be confronted with the unprecedented challenges of climate change, so critical to engage students on this issue.