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THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE

THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE. Election Demographics. % Of Vote. % of vote. Presidential Campaign Strategies and Issues. Campaign Messages-Economy. Romney:

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THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE

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  1. THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE

  2. Election Demographics

  3. % Of Vote

  4. % of vote

  5. Presidential Campaign Strategies and Issues

  6. Campaign Messages-Economy • Romney: • Obama is responsible for the weak economy, high unemployment and poor job creation. • My policies will create 12 million new jobs. • Obama: • I inherited a catastrophic economic situation that takes time to fix. • The US economy and jobs are gradually recovering.

  7. Campaign Messages: Taxes • Romney: I will reduce all personal tax rates by 20% with offsetting elimination of tax deductions. • Obama: Romney won’t say what tax deductions will be eliminated. • Romney’s plan would require eliminating home mortgage interest deductions and other deductions that raise taxes for the Middle Class. • Instead those earning over $250,000 should pay more.

  8. Campaign Ads • Obama • defined Romney with early ad blitz. • bought ads at lower candidate rates. • Romney • “outsourced” large % of ads to outside groups, which cost more and lost control of the message. • Some negative ads backfired for both campaigns.

  9. Ground Game • Obama’s ground game was the best in history. • Romney’s get-out-the-vote technology had major problems.

  10. Polling • Public polls and Obama pollsters got it right. • Republican pollsters had a bad night. • Online and live phone polls outperformed automated phone polls.

  11. Gaffes and October Surprise • Gaffes: • “Legitimate” rape • 47% • Binders full of women • You didn’t build that • Going to put y’all in chains • October surprise - Hurricane Sandy benefited Obama and stalled the Romney campaign.

  12. Impact of Other Issues • Benghazi • Immigration • Obamacare • Reproductive rights • Gay marriage • Legalization of marijuana

  13. CAMPAIGN FINANCE The 2012 election is estimated to cost $6 billion The most expensive in history! Factors: Presidential Fundraising Super PACs & Outside Spending Legislative Races Let’s follow the money

  14. 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Republicans & Mitt Romney Raised: $1.13 billion Spent: $1.11 billion Democrats & Barack Obama Raised: $1.08 billion Spent: $957 million

  15. Campaign Expenses $720.1 million $859.9 million Total Advertising Campaign spent 42% Campaign spent 52% Field offices Romney’s $300 million Obama’s $800 million Field Staffer Median Salary/Month Romney’s $6,000 Obama’s $3,000

  16. FUNDING SOURCES RNC vs. DNC $351 millionMaximum Donation: $30,800. Both parties raised more from $267 million donors giving $5,000 or less. Campaign $413 millionMaximum Donation: $2,500. Obma raised more from donors $645 million giving $200 or less. Romney raised more from donors giving over $2,000. Super PACs $203 million Unlimited donations. Of the 16 contributors who donated $2 $75 million million or more to Super PACs, 6 were for Obama; 10 for Romney

  17. FUNDING STRATEGIES • Obama’s campaign • Done in-house • Concentrated on raising funds from small donors • Over 4 million individuals contributed to his campaign • Many contributed more than once via online • or text messages • Romney’s campaign • Did not raise as much • His alignment with outside spending groups allowed him • to keep up

  18. Sources of Funding by Sector • Finance, Insurance & Real Estate • Romney, $52.1 millionObama, $18.7 million • Miscellaneous Business • Romney, $24.4 million Obama, $19.9 million • Lawyers & Lobbyists • Romney, $13.6 millionObama, $25.5 million • Labor • Romney, $3,245Obama, $413,394 • Retirees • Romney, $56.3 million Obama, $50 million

  19. BIG SPENDERS UC - affiliated supporters: $1,092,906 : G/S – affiliated supporters: $994,239 Microsoft: $761,343 Bank Of America: $921,839 Google, Inc: $737,055 Morgan Stanley: $827,255 US Government: $627,628 JP Morgan Chase & Co: $792,147 Harvard University: $602,992 Credit Suisse Group: $618,941

  20. SUPER PACS/OUTSIDE GROUPS CROSSROADS GPS $22,133,006 (501C) RESTORE OUR FUTURE $142,645,946 AMERICAN FUTURE FUND $23,619,612 AMERICAN CROSSROADS $124,138,876 PRIORITIES USA ACTION $77,707,200 AMERICANS FOR JOB SECURITY $15,872,866 (501C) REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE $42,414,344 NRA OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND $9,621,827 AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY $33,564,920 (501C) SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT’L UNION $16,439,069 US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE $32,676,075 (501C)

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