Climate Change Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions

1. Climate Change Health Consequences & Healthy Solutions Harvard University 21 October 2009

2. Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project? Stable states 387 ppm ?Small Caps or cold reversal 1 280 ppm Medium Polar Caps CO2 180 ppm Large Polar Caps 2 460 ppm CO2e ? ppm CO2-equivalent or GWP – SOxs + black soot = (0.9 W/m2) CO2 + NOxs + CFCs + methane +H2O (1.66 W/m2) Tundra 3 Albedo Ice melt is accelerating Arctic sea ice Sea level rise H2O vapor

3. Deep Ocean Warming Precipitation over the Continental U.S since 1970 Rain 7% Mumbai 37.1” 26 July 2005 1, 000 deaths Heat content in exajoules >2”/d 14% >6”/d 27% 22 times >4”/d 20% Global Hydrological Cycle Arctic Sea ice Mt glac Antarctic Atm Cont glac Cont Ocean Levitus et al. Science 2005

5. Lyme Disease TODAY 2080 Social Ecological Climate Brownstein et al., 2005

6. Meningitis belt Burkina Faso, DRC, Sudan and Uganda >15, 000 cases >1600 deaths Mar 2007 Niger > 8000 cases, 800 deaths May 2009 RVF malaria cholera 2007 Floods 2004-2006 DROUGHT Chikungunya fever

7. Bark Beetles and Forest Fires Injury, Respiratory Disease, Water, Wildlife, Property, Carbon Pulse

8. Mental and Emotional Health • Depression • Family violence • Alcoholism • Loss • Communities • Livelihoods • Social cohesion Shishmaref, Alaska -ACIA 2004

9. Winter Weather Anomalies VARIABILTY • Freeze-thaw cycles • Ice Storms • Fog • Infrastructure • Municipal expenses Ambulatory & Travel Hazards: Orthopedic Injuries, MVAs, MIs

10. Konzo: High Cyanide in Yucca Drought and Incr. CO2

11. Climate Change in Our Backyards CO2 Mold Heatwaves & smog Pollen Particulates & pollen Tree pollen WNV* Poison Ivy Stalks 2X CO2 Lyme Ag weeds Mushroom spores Ragweed

12. Stabilization Wedges 7 Energy Efficiency & Conservation 1.Public Transport & Plug-in Hybrids 2. ‘Smart grid:’ Distribution, Storage & Use 3. Green Buildings 4. Healthy Cities Natural Sinks 9. Forest sequestration 10. Soil sequestration 11. Waste management & CH4 capture Fossil Fuel-based 12. Switch from Coal to Nat. Gas 13. C Capture & Storage (CCS) 14. H2 Fuel Cells 15. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS Renewables5. Wind 6. PV/Solar thermal 7. Geothermal 8. Biofuels One wedge: One Yucca Mt q 5-10 years 16. Nuclear fission Formaldehyde & Acetaldehyde O3 No regrets Study needed 10 faults lie ithin a 20-mile radius of Yucca Mt. USGS 5/21/07

13. Retention ponds CCS

19. Carbon Capture and Storage Humans Vegetation Limestone Fractures Acidification -As -Pb Microbial communities -IPCC Tech Summary on CCS

20. Complementary Suite of Measures to Scale Up , Fast Cars Trucks Trains Buses PHEVs &EVs Ships Planes Cleanly-powered, smart grid Light-rail Healthy Cities CO2 O3, BC

21. 750F 180oF CO2 dome O3 BC White roof Dark roof

22. CE Green Buildings GC SF Estimated Savings Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billion Worker performance: $20 to $160 billion Studies Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Schools with natural light 20% faster on math tests 26% faster on reading tests Stores with natural light: 40% more sales Hospitals with better lighting & ventilation: improved patient outcomes

23. Clean Energy: Adaptation and Mitigation Underwriting Distributed Generation Distributed Development Water Purification Pumping Irrigation Desalination Swiss Re Munich Re Finance Cooking Clinics Schools Homes Computers MDGs: Haines et al. Lancet 2008

24. Financial Architecture Aligning Rewards and Regulations Private sector Investments Insurance Ratings Public sector Incentives Infrastructure R&D Procurement practices “Carrots” Public Health TAXES, SUBSIDIES, FUNDS Security Economy INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK REGULATIONS EFFICIENCY STDS Climate Stability “Sticks” THE ECONOMIC ENGINE for the 21st CENTURY New Energy Plan Transport Utilities Buildings Corn Coal Nuclear Lobbies

25. http://chge.med.harvard.edu http://www.climatechangefutures.org

26. EXTRA

27. Green Chemistry Yeast enzyme Candida Antarcticus enzyme Soy Algae Fatty acids Long chains Cross links Polymers ‘Bioplastics’ Cutinase Shred Algal-PV Bodiesel NANOSCIENCE Batteries

28. First Principles, Models and Data 1827 – Coined the ‘greenhouse effect.’ 1861- Absorption of infrared radiation by CO2. 1896- Calculated effect of 2xCO2 = T 5-6ºC. Jean Baptiste Fourier 1760-1830 1940- Warming due to CO2 from fossil fuels. John Tyndall 1820-1893 1958 - Mauna Loa, CO2. Svante Arrhenius 1859-1927 Climate modelling and prediction. Guy Callendar 1897-1964 Charles Keeling 1928-2005 Syukuro Manabe 1935- Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA

29. Energy Infrastructure Vulnerabilities • Storms and interruptions • Heatwaves/blackouts 24 of 104: H2O shortages loom • Cooling water and nuclear power plants • Melting permafrost and pipelines • Warming Lightning • Montane glacier loss • hydropower • Coal-fired plants

30. Natural Variability: Milankovitch Cycles Harmony of the spheres

31. Kidney Stones and Warming: Projections Brikowski et al. PNAS 2008; 105:9841

32. Hurricane Katrina L. Pontchartrain 28’ high waves 13’ levees Gulf 75’ waves 55’ oilrigs Politics Image Economy Energy prices & political instability L&H P&C Food security “Katrina cough” Image Toxins Oil Mold A turning point

33. Zambezi 2005: konzo epidemic

34. Cleanly-Powered, Smart Grids Renewables + Nat. Gas Cogen Plant Regional NW MW Co-Gen Dist. Generation Central Bat. SW Ground source heat pumps A/C Co-Gen Hydro/Natural Gas