Download
1 / 12
120 likes | 139 Views
Explore the intricate landscape of China's coal industry, from production to exports, and its impact on global energy trends. Delve into the challenges and opportunities in the Chinese coal market, including environmental concerns and foreign trade dynamics. Uncover key drivers shaping the future of coal in China and the U.S.
E N D
Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans in Energy, the Environment, and Commerce Washington DC May 13th, 2013
Drivers Underlying Global Energy Trend China/U.S. in 2011 0.7% 8.4% 5.2% 23% 30% 70% 27% 24% 4.0% 37% 34% 18% Source: BP World Statistical Review 2012, NBS, U.S. Census Bureau.
China: a Hybrid Economy at Crossroad Source: World Bank, IEA, own estimation
Concern of Energy Security Source: China Customs.
Dependency on Foreign Oil: China vs. US CNOOCUnocal (2005) China U.S. CNOOCNexen (2012) Source: NBS, US EIA.
Environmental Constraints Gt of CO2 Emissions 64% 64% 68% 13% 17% 22% 24% 19% 10% Source: US EIA, NBS, ERI, IEA, own estimation.
Chinese Coal Value Chain • Coal Production • Coal Transport • Coal Use • Coal Resources • 46% of global total • 80% global fatalities in early 2000s • Half by key SOEs, 1/3 by private mines • Half by ultra-small mines in 1995 -> minimal • 47%of global total • half Chinese coal used for power generation, 9% for iron & steel, 7% for non-metal minerals, 5% for coal chemicals • National coal consumption cap • 48% of national coal output was shipped by rail • 36% by major coastal ports • 15% by inland • Integrated railway + coastal marine transport • Bottlenecks • 2nd largest coal reserves behind U.S. • Distribution of coal resources • Lack of coking coal • Quality deterioration of thermal coal
Chinese Coal Imports/Exports Coal Exports Peaked in 2003 • Global coal trade is about one third of China’s domestic coal market. • China became a net coal importer in 2009. • China passed Japan as the world’s largest coal importer in 2011. • China’s coal imports in 2012 up 58%, reaching 289Mt. China encouraged coal exports Source: NBS and China Customs.
China’s Coal Imports by Country Mt Source: China Customs.
At least 6 coal export facilities proposed along the West Coast with aggregate capacity at >120 Mt/annum
Sources of China’s Gas Supply • Can conventional fields deliver as expected? • Problem with CBM development. • Is coal-to-gas compatible with China’s conservation goals? • Can shale gas be kicked off? • Can pipeline gas deal with Russia overcome pricing dispute? • Is U.S. a potential LNG supplier? bcm Source: Energy Review.
