1 / 12

2d Weather Squadron

Fly – Fight - Win. 2d Weather Squadron. Galaxy 15 Anomaly Space Weather Assessment 5 Apr 2010. Galaxy 15. Commercial television provider for North America Owned by Intelsat (owns fleet of 12 satellites) Located at 133 West in GEO Anomaly occurred on 5 Apr at 9:48 UTC (0:48 L)

tuwa
Download Presentation

2d Weather Squadron

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Fly – Fight - Win 2d Weather Squadron Galaxy 15 Anomaly Space Weather Assessment 5 Apr 2010

  2. Galaxy 15 • Commercial television provider for North America • Owned by Intelsat (owns fleet of 12 satellites) • Located at 133 West in GEO • Anomaly occurred on 5 Apr at 9:48 UTC (0:48 L) • Mitigation: shifted all traffic to on-orbit spare Galaxy 12 • Launched in 2005 • Should have lasted until 2022 • Probable cause of anomaly: satellite surface charging

  3. Ingredients for Satellite Charging • Most upsets occur • Between local midnight and local dawn • Greatest number occur between 00L and 01L • This is the main time window for satellite eclipse • Surface Charging • satellites can reach much larger potentials when in eclipse than when in sunlight • level of surface charging has a direct correlation to Kp • higher Kp can imply higher potentials being observed • electrostatic discharge often occurs near exit of eclipse • discharge is frequently the mechanism causing damage

  4. Satellite in Eclipse • Satellite is in eclipse when in the earth’s shadow • Eclipse seasons for GEO spacecraft are near equinoxes • not to scale

  5. GOES-14 Eclipse Satellite in Eclipse ≈ 1 hr (not sensing solar x-rays)

  6. Galaxy 15 Upset • Galaxy 15 • Location 133W • in or near an eclipse window • local time ideal for GEO satellite anomalies • Eclipse • 5 April 2010 / 0827Z – 0916Z (2335L – 0024 Local Sun Time ) • Geomagnetic Storming • 0915Z: Minor Geomagnetic Storming started • 1016Z: Geomagnetic Storming increased to Severe levels • Upset • 5 April 2010 / 0948Z (0056 Local Sun Time)

  7. Assessment • At the time of the event • Galaxy 15, stationed at 133W, was near an eclipse window. • When GEO spacecraft are in eclipse, surface charging can reach much larger potentials than when in sunlight. • Strong geomagnetic storming was in progress. • The level of surface charging has a direct correlation to the Kp (intensity of geomagnetic storming) • Higher Kp can result in higher potentials being observed. • Higher electrostatic potential implies stronger discharge. • This is a case of high likelihood of space environmental influence.

  8. 2WS Products

  9. SPACE ENVIRONMENT DISCUSSION Potential Impacts to DoD Operations HF Comm(when YELLOW or RED): temporary degraded or total loss of HF radio communications. UHF SATCOM(when YELLOW or RED): temporary degraded or total loss of UHF radio communications. Satellite Operations/Health (when YELLOW or RED): increased likelihood of spacecraft anomalies; degradation of spacecraft components due to radiation interference to communication satellite circuits. Space Object Tracking/Satellite Drag(when YELLOW or RED): increased likelihood for space object tracking loss; increased drag on low earth orbiting spacecraft. High Altitude Flight(when YELLOW or RED): increase in harmful radiation dosage to personnel in high altitude operations. Radar Interference/False Returns: (when YELLOW or RED): increased interference or false returns to sunward and/or pole ward looking radars. Space Weather Events/Impacts Summary Solar Activity: Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. Flare probabilities: M: 01% X: 01% Charged Particle Environment : Observed YELLOW. Forecast YELLOW 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. Geomagnetic: Observed RED. Forecast RED 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. HF Comm:Observed RED. Forecast RED 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. Satellite Operations/Health: Observed RED. Forecast RED 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. Space Object Tracking/Satellite Drag: Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. High Altitude Flight:Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. Radar Interference/False Returns: Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. This slide provides a generalized situation awareness of past and future space environment impacts to war-fighters and weapon systems. The severity of the impacts due to the space environment may be more or less than indicated by the color coded assessment in a particular area. The impact variability is dependent on a variety of factors including, but not limited to, system location, geometry, and operating frequency. Please contact the 2 WS Space Weather Forecaster at DSN 272-8087 or 272-4317 (Commercial 402-232-8087 or 402-232-4317) to arrange mission-specific support or to report conditions experienced by your system that may be related to space weather disturbances.

  10. RECENT SPACE WEATHER EVENTS 05 Apr 10 0915Z ~ Geomagnetic Storming Began 04 Apr 10 No Events 03 Apr 10 No Events 02 Apr 10 No Events 01 Apr 10 1815Z ~ Geomagnetic Storming Ended 1615Z ~ Geomagnetic Storming Began 31 Mar 10 No Events 30 Mar 10 No Events

  11. 2WS Bulletins WOXX54 KGWC 050915 SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 0915Z 05 APR 2010 PART A. GEOMAGNETIC EVENT IN PROGRESS (INITIAL): THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS INCREASED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE 3-HOUR AP WAS 32 AND THE 24-HOUR AP WAS 15 AT 05/0915Z THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 05/1215Z (BASED ON 3-HOUR AP) WHEN VALUES WILL DECREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS UNTIL THIS EVENT ENDS. PART B. POSSIBLE EFFECTS ARE SATELLITE DRAG ON LOW EARTH ORBIT SATELLITES, SATCOM SCINTILLATION, HF RADIO COMMUNICATION INTERFERENCE OR LAUNCH TRAJECTORY ERRORS. COMMENTS: PART C. REMARKS: ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE DUTY FORECAST AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087. INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK. FORECASTERS: Treacher/Money WOXX54 KGWC 051018 SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 1018Z 05 APR 2010 PART A. GEOMAGNETIC EVENT IN PROGRESS (UPDATE): THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS AT SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE 3-HOUR AP WAS 132 AND THE 24-HOUR AP WAS 29 AT 05/1015Z THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT SEVERE STORM LEVELS THROUGH 05/1615Z (BASED ON 3-HOUR AP) WHEN VALUES WILL DECREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS UNTIL THIS EVENT ENDS. PART B. POSSIBLE EFFECTS ARE SATELLITE DRAG ON LOW EARTH ORBIT SATELLITES, SATCOM SCINTILLATION, HF RADIO COMMUNICATION INTERFERENCE OR LAUNCH TRAJECTORY ERRORS. COMMENTS: PART C. REMARKS: ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE DUTY FORECAST AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087. INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK. FORECASTERS: Treacher/Money

More Related