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STAT 1301 Introduction to Statistics

STAT 1301 Introduction to Statistics. Wayne Woodward Office: 143 Heroy Phone: 768-2457 Hours: 2:00-3:00 W 3:00-4:00 Th 2:00-3:00 F others by appointment

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STAT 1301 Introduction to Statistics

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  1. STAT 1301 Introduction to Statistics Wayne Woodward Office: 143 Heroy Phone: 768-2457 Hours: 2:00-3:00 W 3:00-4:00 Th 2:00-3:00 F others by appointment Text: Statistics, by Freedman, Pisani,and Purves (3rd edition)

  2. Lecture Sessions • a short quiz will be given at the beginning of each lecture session over the reading assignment for that day • these will start on Thursday, January 20 • counts 10% of total grade (lowest 3 quiz grades dropped)

  3. Homework • (for the previous week) will be taken up at beginning of lab on Monday • counts 10% of grade(2 lowest scores will be dropped)

  4. Monday Lab Sections • meet every Monday • TA: Julia Kozlitina Tracy Xu • lab project • counts 10% of grade(2 lowest scores will be dropped) • NOTE: • first lab is Monday – January 24(no lab this Monday -- Martin Luther King Day)

  5. Major Exams • 3 Hour Exams - (lowest exam score dropped) - count 40% of grade • Final Exam - cumulative - counts 25% of grade NOTE:Special arrangements can be made for students with learning disabilities

  6. Project • Internet-based assignment using statistics web sites • Counts 5% of your grade

  7. Course Packs Course Packs for this class can bepicked up at the bookstore. Includes: • Reading Handouts • Homework Handouts • Lab Assignments • Lecture Handouts • Practice Exams

  8. IMPORTANT NO late work will be accepted NO make-ups will be given for - hour exams - daily quizzes - lab projects

  9. Dates to Remember • January 19 -- Last day to Add/Drop • March 14-18 -- Spring Break • April 4 -- Last day to drop a course

  10. TIPS • always attend class - lecture - Monday labs • keep up - reading - homework • treat college like an 8 to 5 job

  11. Math Fundamentals(Quantitative Reasoning) • Literacy • usual context: reading • Quantitative Literacy (“numeracy”) • increasingly important in our society • H.G. Wells:“The ability to think statistically will someday be as important to a good citizen as the ability to read and write.” • most people have inadequate “numeracy” skills • In this course we will learn to deal critically with data and numerical arguments • develop the ability to apply statistical ideas to“real world” situations

  12. Elements of Statistics • collecting quantitative information • surveys, experiments, etc. • describing and presenting data • data summaries, graphs, etc. • drawing conclusions • Statistics is the science of decision making in the face of uncertainty

  13. Examples: • Data Collection Issues • Bias • How was the question asked? • Well-designed study or anecdotal evidence? • How were subjects selected? • Placebo used? • Interpretation • Simpson’s Paradox

  14. Should Government Spending for Public Television be Cut? 2 questions on a poll of 1031 people (1) “I would be disappointed if Congress cut its funding for public television.” (2) “Cuts in funding for public television are justified as part of an overall effort to reduce federal spending.” % saying cuts ok: (1) 40% (2) 52%

  15. Knight-Ridder Wire Everybody knows what a placebo is: A phony pill the doctors give to hypochondriacs to make them think they’re getting medical treatment. All too true, but according to recent studies, the deceptive little sugar pills work pretty well on people who are ill, too. Science digest reports that expectations and belief play so important a part in making a person well that patients suffering from very real dis-abilities such as coughs, colds, ulcers, seasickness, vertigo, and hay fever have enjoyed improve-ment in their conditions, and sometimes have been cured when treated with placebos. Other research indicates that placebos can at times constrict the pupil of the eye, alter the blood pressure, change the heart or respiratory rates, influence, digestion, change body temp-erature, and even effect fat levels in the blood and the number of certain types of blood cells. A placebo might be the cure

  16. Gender Bias - Graduate Division, UC Berkeley • 8442 men applied, 44% were admitted • 4321 women applied, 35% were admittedIs it correct to say the university prefers men to women? MENWOMEN Number of Percent Number of Percent Major applicants admittedapplicants admitted A 825 62 108 82 B 560 63 25 68 C 325 37 593 34 D 417 33 375 35 E 191 28 393 24 F 373 6 341 7

  17. More Extreme -- Hypothetical Example What’s the point? Combined -- university seems to favor men. However, for each dept.- % male applicants admitted is less than that for females. Gender is confounded with major. (Simpson’s Paradox) Admit Deny Percent Mathematics Males 80 20 80% Females 9 1 90% English Males 1 9 10% Females 20 80 20% Combined Males 81 29 74% Females 29 81 26%

  18. Uses of Statistics • GovernmentCensus Bureau, Food and Drug Administration • BusinessMarket Research, Economic Forecasting, Quality Control • Social SciencesPsychological Testing, Housing Quality, Educational Effectiveness • MedicineCancer Research, Drug Trials, fMRI • Natural SciencesGlobal Warming, Nuclear Monitoring, Air Quality • LawEmployment Discrimination Cases, Tax Audits

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