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Ecological Niche Modeling: Introduction

Ecological Niche Modeling: Introduction. July 3 rd , 2014 Charlotte Germain-Aubrey cgermain@ufl.edu. Why is a species where it is ? . Why is a species where it is ? . Mutation Dispersion Selection Competition Human activity Chance Time GEOLOGY GEOGRAPHY CLIMATE.

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Ecological Niche Modeling: Introduction

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  1. Ecological Niche Modeling: Introduction July 3rd, 2014 Charlotte Germain-Aubrey cgermain@ufl.edu

  2. Why is a species where it is ?

  3. Why is a species where it is ? Mutation Dispersion Selection Competition Human activity Chance Time GEOLOGY GEOGRAPHY CLIMATE

  4. What is a niche ???

  5. What is a niche ??? • Grinellian niche: habitat requirements that allow a species to persist and reproduce • Eltonian niche: role that a species plays in a community, rather than habitat • Hutchinsonian niche: • Fundamental niche: area with optimal biotic and abiotic conditions, but free of interference from other species • Realized niche: subset of the fundamental niche actually occupied by the species, due to pressures from other species.

  6. What is a niche ??? • Grinellian niche: habitat requirements that allow a species to persist and reproduce • Eltonian niche: role that a species plays in a community, rather than habitat • Hutchinsonian niche: • Fundamental niche: area with optimal biotic and abiotic conditions, but free of interference from other species • Realized niche: subset of the fundamental niche actually occupied by the species, due to pressures from other species. Optimum environment for growth, reproduction, and survival of a species Defined by: Substrate Microclimate Competition

  7. Appropriate set of abiotic factors – fundamental niche Right combination of species interactions – realized niche Regions accessible ecologically Soberon and Peterson (2005) Biodiversity Informatics 2:1-10

  8. Appropriate set of abiotic factors – fundamental niche Right combination of species interactions – realized niche Regions accessible ecologically Occupied niche Soberon and Peterson (2005) Biodiversity Informatics 2:1-10

  9. The occupied niche can change and shift over time, within the realized niche. Fundamental niche is still worth estimating, even if it is not a perfect representation of a species distribution at a precise point in time. Holt, R. D. (2009) PNAS 106 : 19659-19665

  10. How do you establish a species’ environmental tolerance ? Ex situ: Common garden experiment on site (controlled field conditions) Common garden experiment in situ (where the tested climate occurs) Thorough field surveys over time (usually leads to distribution map = absence map) VERY DIFFICULT !!!

  11. Look at a set of conditions under which a species occurs naturally (presence data) • When possible, also look at conditions under which the species does NOT occur (absence data) • BUILD THE MODEL Ecological niche models

  12. Look at a set of conditions under which a species occurs naturally (presence data) • When possible, also look at conditions under which the species does NOT occur (absence data) • BUILD THE MODEL Occurrence data: where the species is present, but not where it is absent Distribution map: where the species is absent, but not where it is present Ecological niche models

  13. Look at a set of conditions under which a species occurs naturally (presence data) • When possible, also look at conditions under which the species does NOT occur (absence data) • BUILD THE MODEL • Apply the model in space (around where it occurs naturally, or in another area), or in time (where did it use to occur, or where will it occur in the future) • PROJECT THE MODEL Occurrence data: where the species is present, but not where it is absent Distribution map: where the species is absent, but not where it is present Ecological niche models

  14. PRACTICAL • Invasive species • Disease • Data deficient species • Conservation/Land Management • THEORETICAL • Diversity through time • Evolutionary patterns Niche Model applications

  15. Causes of speciation Graham, C. H., S. R. Ron, J. C. Santos, C. J. Schneider, and C. Moritz. 2004. Integrating Phylogenetics and Environmental Niche Models to Explore Speciation Mechanisms in Dendrobatid Frogs. Evolution 58: 1781.

  16. Past distributions/refugia and phylogeography hypotheses

  17. K.C. Ruegg, R.J. Hijmans, C. Moritz (2006) Climate change and the origin of migratory pathways in the Swainson’s thrush, Catharusustulatus. Journal of Biogeography, 33 (2006), pp. 1172–1182

  18. Bioclim correlation 8 layers < 0.85 • Altitude • Geology Florida Plant Modeling Project

  19. Wunderlin list of 4,094 species of Florida plants • 3 EPA ecoregions • 391,937 343,266 dated • 30+ points per species • 372,241 pts for 1,738 species

  20. Florida plant diversity heat map

  21. Endemism hotspots # endemics / total # species

  22. Between now and 2050… 60 speccies go extinct • Panhandle species moving NORTH ! • Peninsula species moving SOUTH ! # spp 2050 - #spp now

  23. The spread of the endemics

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