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Pakistan: Political transition amid regional instability

Raza Rumi. Pakistan: Political transition amid regional instability. Democratic path. Historical trends Gains made during 2008-2013 Federalism – NFC Award & 18 th Amendment Social protection Marginalised citizens Civil-military imbalance remains Challenges: economy, energy, security

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Pakistan: Political transition amid regional instability

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  1. Raza Rumi Pakistan: Political transition amid regional instability

  2. Democratic path • Historical trends • Gains made during 2008-2013 • Federalism – NFC Award & 18th Amendment • Social protection • Marginalised citizens • Civil-military imbalance remains • Challenges: economy, energy, security • New power centres: Judiciary & Media

  3. 2013: Political transitionContext • Democratic consensus • Urban discontent • Terrorists reducing political space • NATO withdrawal • Political and sectarian violence • Growing power of militants as an election factor

  4. Current trends • Opinion polls reflect varying trends • Fragmentation • IRI polls placed Pakistan TehreekeInsaf (PTI) and recently Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) ahead of the ruling party • The SDPI poll shows ruling PPP ahead by a thin margin • A weak coalition expected

  5. Scenarios • Possible: Coalition led by PMLN with regional parties • Possible: Coalition led by President Zardari’s PPP • Least likely: A majority win for PTI • Remote: Deadlock followed by military intervention

  6. Election challenges • Impartiality of caretaker governments • Efficacy of Election Commission? • Law & order and various types of violence • Women’s participation • Polling booths – access • Media responsibility? • Judicial neutrality/role of an arbiter

  7. Key Issues post-May 2013 • Urgent economic stabilization • Growing energy crisis • NATO troops withdrawal in Afghanistan • Insurgency (Balochistan) & Urban violence (Karachi) • Handling extremist groups • Peace process with India • Public service delivery & local government

  8. Scenarios • Best case: Functional coalition, incremental reform & controlled chaos • Mixed: Weak coalition, economic crisis management, military calling the shots on security/foreign policy • Worst case: Fledgling democracy, Afghanistan spillover effect & deep instability

  9. For Pakistan elites • Urgent focus on reform: • Political reform for legitimacy of democratic path • Economic reform for stabilisation • Security & counter terrorism • State-building in ungoverned areas such as FATA, Balochistan, Karachi etc • Correction of civil-military imbalance • Peace with India & shift in Afghan policy

  10. For International Community • Engagement with Pakistan’s democracy & civilian institutions • Responsibility of not turning their back on the impending Afghan-Pakistan crisis • Re-tailoring aid from military to civilian – esp law enforcement agencies • A more nuanced appreciation of Pakistan’s internal transitions & dynamics

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