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Aart C. Liefbroer and Tineke Fokkema

Recent developments in demographically relevant attitudes and behaviour: New challenges for a new era?. Aart C. Liefbroer and Tineke Fokkema. 2DT. Changes in nuptiality and fertility are interlinked Postponement of marriage and parenthood Decrease in number of children

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Aart C. Liefbroer and Tineke Fokkema

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  1. Recent developments in demographically relevant attitudes and behaviour:New challenges for a new era? Aart C. Liefbroer and Tineke Fokkema

  2. 2DT • Changes in nuptiality and fertility are interlinked • Postponement of marriage and parenthood • Decrease in number of children • Increase in propensity not to marry and to remain childless • Increase in living alone and unmarried cohabitation • Increase in divorce • Changes in demographic behaviour (partly) result from changes in values and attitudes • Increased importance attached to self-realization • Post-materialistic values

  3. 2DT Empirical evidence is firm, • Panel studies show that demographic behaviour is influenced by values and attitudes • Cross-sectional and longitudinal country-level studies show a strong correlation between demographic behaviour and value indicators

  4. 2DT … but questions remain • Has the 2DT crossed the Alps and the Pyrenees? • Has the 2DT crossed the former Iron Curtain? • And if so, for the right reasons (i.e. values)?

  5. Attitude Change How do people across the Western world feel about cohabitation, divorce and parenthood? • International Social Survey Program (ISSP) • Module on ‘Family and Changing Gender Roles’ • Data on 20 countries in 1994 and on 28 countries in 2002

  6. Attitude items • It is all right for a couple to live together without intending to get married • It is a good idea for a couple who intend to get married to live together first • Divorce is usually the best solution when a couple can’t seem to work out their marriage problems • Watching children grow up is life’s greatest joy • People who never had children lead empty lives

  7. Findings on attitudes • Attitudes on alternative living arrangements have become more positive between 1994 and 2002 • In Eastern and Southern Europe many young adults in favour of premarital cohabitation • In Eastern and Southern Europe, young adults value children more highly than in other parts of the Western world • Little change in value of children

  8. Behavioural Change How many young adults cohabit unmarried? • Labour Force Survey (LFS) • Data on 14 countries, some time-series dating back to 1992

  9. Findings on behaviour • Unmarried cohabitation has become increasingly popular across Europe between 1992 and 2004 • In Eastern and Southern Europe, significant proportions of young adults are now cohabiting unmarried • The proportions of young adults who live with children have decreased in most of Europe between 1992 and 2000 • Since 2000 these proportions are stabilizing

  10. Attitude-behaviour link Are attitudes and behaviour correlated at the country level? • Combination of (a) ISSP and (b) LFS data/ national statistics • Correlations at the macro level • Multi-level model of parenthood attitude and TFR

  11. Findings on attitude-behaviour link • Positive relationship between attitudes and behaviour with regard to cohabitation (but N too small to be too certain) • Negative relationship between attitudes and behaviour with regard to parenthood • Negative relationship disappears after adding Esping-Andersen’s typology to the equation • Values do not seem to determine country-level variation in TFR

  12. Conclusions on cohabitation • 2DT attitudes with regard to alternative living arrangements have spread across Alps, Pyrenees and Iron Curtain • 2DT behaviour with regard to unmarried cohabitation has spread across Alps, Pyrenees and Iron Curtain • Shifts in attitudes and behaviour concerning cohabitation seem to run in parallel • Predictions of 2DT seem to come true at last…. • But, why did it take so long, and why is behaviour lagging behind attitudes? • Role of normative constraints??

  13. Conclusions on parenthood • 2DT attitudes with regard to parenthood have hardly crossed the Alps, Pyrenees and Iron Curtain as yet • Countries across the Alps, Pyrenees and Iron Curtain lead the way in 2DT parenthood behaviour • Attitudes and behaviour concerning parenthood are strongly at odds with each other • Behaviour follows 2DT, but for the wrong reasons? • Institutional arrangements better in Social-Democratic and Liberal welfare states? • Economic circumstances worse in Eastern Europe?

  14. New challenges • Paying more attention to gender attitudes and issues as a driving force for demographic change • Answering the question under what conditions values influence behaviour OR which factors can hamper the realization of values • Trying to understand why some countries and states seem resilient to change (e.g. the Southern states in the US) • Paying attention to the consequences of global climate change and population ageing for attitudes about the value of children

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