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INDONESIA’S PLAN TOWARDS LOW CARBON SOCIETY (LCS)

INDONESIA’S PLAN TOWARDS LOW CARBON SOCIETY (LCS). Rizaldi Boer Laboratory of Climatology Bogor Agricultural University (IPB-Bogor) E-mail: rizaldiboer@gmail.com. Introduction.

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INDONESIA’S PLAN TOWARDS LOW CARBON SOCIETY (LCS)

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  1. INDONESIA’S PLAN TOWARDS LOW CARBON SOCIETY (LCS) Rizaldi Boer Laboratory of Climatology Bogor Agricultural University (IPB-Bogor) E-mail: rizaldiboer@gmail.com

  2. Introduction • To avoid dangerous climate change the average global temperature increase (over pre-industrial level) should be kept below 2oC. • To ovoid this the CO2e concentration at the atmosphere should not be more than 450 ppm • To achieve this, the emissions of the world will have to be reduced by around 50% by 2050, with a peak around 2020. • GoI has developed national action plan to address climate change issues (RAN-PI) and ICCAP (Indonesian Climate Change Adaptation Program) (Source: Meinshausen, 2005).

  3. USA LCD CAN, AUS. & RoK Toward LCS EU-High Japan Vietnam ???? EU-Low Malaysia China Thailand Brazil Toward LCS • Emission per capita has linear relationship with GDP/Cap. • Can we maintain our emission low when level of our wealth improve?

  4. Energy conservation REDD and Sink Ehancement Global GHG Emission Redrawn from WRI and CAIT data of 2000: The less developed a country the higher emission rate from LULUCF, the more developed a country the higher emission rate from the use of fossil fuels

  5. FI, TT, HRD Indonesia Emissions vs Other Countries USA USA China China Indonesia EU-Low EU-Low Brazil CAN, AUS. & RoK CAN, AUS. & RoK India Japan Japan India EU-High EU-High Malaysia Malaysia Source: Based on data from UNDP (2007) By including LULUCF, the emission of two main forested countries (particularly Indonesia and Brazil) increased significantly, but no for developed countries To become LCS, developed countries have to reduce their emissions significantly mainly from energy sources, while least developed and developing countries mainly from non-energy sector (particularly from LULUCF) To accelerate the reduction of emission from least developed and developing countries, financial incentives, transfer of technologies and HRD from developed countries will be crucial. Without the supports the BAU may continue

  6. Forest transition Forest cover 1. Triggers(road) 2. Reinforcing loops (local demand, infrastr, capital accum, pop dynamics) 3. Stabilizing loops(off-farm jobs, increased land productivity, forest scarcity) Time Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric.mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Source: Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997)

  7. Forest transition Forest cover PNG, DR Congo Indonesia, Brazil China, Costa Rica India, Bolivia Time Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric.mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Source: Slide of Murdiyarso (2008)

  8. Need incentive, TT, HRD

  9. Per capita emission (ton CO2e) Max Ded.Cs Dvg.Cs World Min Indonesia Emissions vs Other Countries in 2000 With addition emission from forest fire (including peat lands), level of per capita emission from Indonesian is almost the same as developed countries Source: Baumert et al, 2005

  10. 1994 Indonesia Emission Total: 1,070 Mt CO2e Source: Initial National Communication (MSE, 1999)

  11. ? Historical trend of population, energy use and emission in the period of 1990-2004 in Indonesia (WRI, 2008) Energy use per capita increase consistently 2030

  12. C-stock Change in the Indonesian Forest under BAU (Boer, 2001) BAU ~ ?

  13. Indonesia’s Action Plan • Issuing of Presidential regulation 5/2005 on national energy policy and President Instruction (INPRES) Number 10/2005 on Energy efficiency and Regulation of Energy and Mineral Resources Minister (PERMEN) 0031/2005 on guideline for implementing energy efficiency Source: MSE, 2007

  14. -17% -3% -3% 40% -17% Emission Projection from Energy Sector Source: MSE, 2007

  15. Cost for Reducing Emission from Energy Sector Source: MSE, 2007

  16. Papua Kalimantan REDD Java Sumatra AR/REDD Forest transition: Indonesia Forest cover Papua Kalimantan Java? Sumatra Time Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric.mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics

  17. National Target for REDD and Sink Enhancement Very optimistic target (?)

  18. IFCA works on REDD GHG Sequestration and Emission Projection for LUCF

  19. REDD STUDY IN INDONESIA

  20. Time Schedule of REDD Implementation in Indonesia 2007 Post Kyoto 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Initial Preparation • - Methodology • Strategy • Market and Institutions • Pilot Project REDD COP 13 Next Preparation Pilot Project Implementation • - Refinement • Design • Pilot Project - Implementation of pilot project – Lesson learnt Full REDD Implementation Workshop, SBSTA, UNFCCC, G8, Etc. COP16 COP17 COP13 COP14 COP15 COP18

  21. Barriers • Governance (e.g. central-local authorities) • Legal and regulatory • Law enforecement • Financial (e.g. market and non-market based) • Social Issues (e.g. forest dependence group, elite capture/free rider) • Institutional Issues (e.g. payment distributions)

  22. THANK YOU

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