Unit #2 Political Behaviors & Beliefs

1. Unit #2 Political Behaviors & Beliefs In Class Lecture & Activities

2. Political Culture:The widely shared beliefs, values and norms that citizens share about government. • Characteristics • Liberty • Equality • Of opportunity more than equality of result • Political equality more than economic equality • Democracy • Civic Duty • Individual Responsibility

3. Sources of Political Culture • Constitution: developed in an “adversarial spirit” • Distrust of government • Religious beliefs • The family • Absence of class consciousness • Culture War

4. Mistrust of government • Distrust of Government has grown, esp. since the 1960s (Vietnam, Watergate, inflation-70s, Clinton, Bush) • Political Efficacy: the sense that one can both understand & influence public policy (Internal) or that the government will respond to the citizenry (External) • Political tolerance-more in the abstract than in the concrete

6. Types Public Opinion:Ch. 7, 155-158 • Types of Publics • Elites: • 1. • 2. • Attentive: • Mass: • Types of Opinions • Stable: • Fluid: • Latent: • Salient: • Consensus: • Polarized:

7. measurements of Public Opinion • By elections • Straw (informal) polls- • Scientific polls – Validity of polls must consider: • Definition of universe: • Selection of sampling • Random • Representative sample - • Sampling error: • writing the questions to avoid bias • Uses of polls: • 1. • 2.

8. measurements of Public Opinion Abuses of polls: • “Horse-race” mentality • Pandering • Projections- Public Awareness & Interest in politics: • Surveys show a substantial lack of political knowledge • Secondary in importance to mass public

9. Political Socialization: process by which people acquire their political beliefs. • Race/Ethnicity • Whites: • Blacks: • Hispanics • Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans • Cubans • Asians: • Income/Social Class: • higher income • lower income • Family: Strongest. • Schools: • Religion • Protestant - • Catholic – Jewish -

10. Gender Gap • Women • “Year of the Woman” 1992: • Emily’s List • “Soccer Moms” • “NASCAR Dads” • Million Mom March 2000: • “security moms” (2004) • Palin’s “Hockey Moms” (2008), • “Mama Grizzlies” (2010) • 2012: “War on Women” • Sex-sensitive issues: • Geographic Region: • Solid South: • New England: • Mass media: • Level of political information is single best predictor of being liberal on civil rights/liberties issues • Elite opinion: • Shapes public policy and influences results, but does not define problems

12. 2012 Election http://www.morningsidecenter.org/teachable-moment/lessons/after-2012-election-exit-polls-demographics

14. Ideology: integrated set of beliefs & values that shape a person’s views. Liberalism: 18th century classical liberalism: Limited gov Gov is chief threat to liberty Role of government to protect property rights. 20th century Modern liberalism (New Deal Liberalism) Expanded role of gov Corporations seen as chief threat to liberty Role of gov to protect people’s well-being. • Smaller percentage of ideologues in our two-party system than in the multi-party systems used in Europe. • Most Americans tend to be non-ideological and more moderate in their beliefs

15. Political ideology: a consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue. Liberalism v. conservativism • Liberalism: • Strong influence of liberalism 1930s-1970s • Backlash 1980s & 1990s • Liberalism gone too far. Need to return to individualism and less reliance on big gov • Neoliberals • Less likely to rely upon gov as solution as New Deal liberals • Rise of Democratic Leadership Council with members Clintons, Harold Ford, Jr. • Obama & the return of New Deal Liberalism • Greater willingness to use the fed gov as tool to protect well-being of people

16. conservativism • Essentially Classical Liberalism • Resurgence since late 70s: • Reagan/Bush 41/ Bush 43 • 104th-109th Congresses (Gingrich “Contract with America”) • Strength in formerly “solid south,” Rocky Mtn., Great Plains • evangelical Christians • Strong support for tax cuts (Clinton, Bush 43) • Emphasis on private sector to solve problems • Neoconservatives & the “New Right” • Some emphasize social issues (school prayer, anti-abortion, anti-homosexuality) Known as the “Religious Right.” Use of faith-based initiatives by Bush 43. • Some focus on foreign policy and national security-war on terrorism & pre-emptive strikes (Iraq) • “Compassionate Conservatism”: Bush 43

17. Socialism • means of production, distribution, and exchange controlled by gov. • Western Europe • Weak in U.S. (associated with radicalism, goes against belief in individualism, American Dream, and suspicion of big gov.) • Libertarianism • Extreme emphasis on individual liberty • Extreme cutback on role of gov.-gov should only defend the nation

18. Political Spectrum Quiz1-Where are you?2-What Do these Labels Mean?3-Were the Questions Relevant, why or why not? AUTHORITARIAN LEFT RIGHT LIBERTARIAN

20. 2008 presidential candidates

21. 2012 Presidential candidates

22. VP Candidates Ideology Scores

23. Ch. 8: Voter TurnOUt • Historical Qualifications for Suffrage • Religion • Property • Race (eliminated by ___Amendment-1870) • Supreme Court’s interpretation: denial of right to vote could not be solely on basis of race • Methods used to disenfranchise: • Literacy test, poll tax, grandfather clause, white primary • Sex (eliminated by ____ Amendment-1920) • Income (eliminated by _____ Amendment banning the poll tax-1964) • Literacy (eliminated by __________________________) • Minimum age of 21 (eliminated by ____ Amendment-1971) • Current Qualifications (set by states): • Citizenship Felons • Residency Registration (except ND)

24. B. Voter TurnOUt in u.s. compared to foreign nations • Voter turnout=number of those who voted/number of those age-eligible to vote. • V.A.P. : • V.E.P. : • Presidential Elections US ~50%, Midterm Congressional ~30-40%, Lower state/local about 10% *Decline since 1960 but rose slightly in 2008 62.3%; 2012 - 57.5% • Comparable industrialized nations in West ~90% BUT

25. Vep: greenvap: yellow

26. Voter turnout: federal elections 1964-2006

28. Reasons for low Voter TurnOUt • Institutional barriers • Registration: National Voter Registration Act of 1993 • “Ballot Fatigue” • Excessive number of elections. • General election > primary election • National election > state • Presidential elections have highest turnout compared to Congressional • Absentee Ballot difficulties • YOUNG have lowest turnout • Political Reasons • Lack of political efficacy • Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, politics • Lack of strong 2-party competition • Weakness of parties in mobilizing voters • 1890: Australian ballot- government printed ballot, uniform in size and shape, cast in secret

29. In the last half of the 20th century, voter turnout in federal elections has declined. During the same period, voter turnout has been higher in presidential elections than in midterm elections. • Identify two factors that have contributed to the overall decline in turnout in federal elections and explain how each factor has contributed to the overall decline. • Identify and explain two reasons why voter turnout has been higher in presidential elections than in midterm elections.

30. Who participates in politics? Six forms of participation Campaigners: Communalists: Parochial participants: • Inactive:(22%) don’t care, don’t vote • Activists: (11%) participate in all forms of politics • Voting specialists:

31. Who participates in politics? • Characteristics of those likely to vote: • Greatest predictor of voting EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT. • INCOME • AGE • RACE/ETHNICITY • SEX • RELIGIOUS INVOLVEMENT • Does low voter turnout matter? • If cross section of U.S. represented then no but, • Class bias: older whites with higher incomes over-represented • Other forms of political participation: • Petitions local party meetings writing letters persuading others • Demonstrations/marches/rallies campaign contributions

32. Political participation by family income

33. Factors affecting Voter Behavior: • Geography • Solid South: • Great Plains: • Rocky Mountain Region: • New England: • Far West: • Rust belt states: • Sun belt states • http://americanpast.richmond.edu/voting/ • Political Party ID: Strongest predictor of voting behavior(7-point scale) • Straight ticket voting; decline in recent years, facilitated by party-column ballot • Split ticket voting; increase in recent years. Facilitated by office-bloc ballot. • Independents: rising number, tend to be young, college educated, above-average incomes • http://www.electionstudies.org/nesguide/toptable/tab2a_1.htm

34. Demographic Factors • Sex: Male v Female- • Race/Ethnicity: White v. Nonwhite • Social Class: Lower v. Upper • Religion: Protestant v. Catholic v. Jewish • Issues • Retrospective Voting: • Prospective Voting: • Candidate Appeal: coattail effect of strong presidential candidate • Time • Maintaining elections: • Deviating elections: • Critical (“realigning” elections): long-term change in political alignment, e.g. 1860, 1896, 1932 • Midterm elections:

35. Ch. 10: Elections and campaigns Campaigns: I. Congressional Elections: Elections are regularly scheduled House: Senate: Fixed terms of office, no term limits House: Winner-take-all/single-member district system Senate: state “at-large” • Money, media, and polling have taken precedence over political parties as being more important in elections • Majority of campaign money spent on media buys • Two phases in elections: • Getting nominated • Getting elected

36. Congressional elections Factors affecting outcomes: 2. Advantages of incumbents: Franking privilege Campaign staff already in place Gerrymandered districts (“safe seats”) Committee service to district Name recognition Casework done for constituents Pork barrel projects for district (“earmarks”) Money (incumbents outspent challengers by 3:1 ratio) • Incumbency: greatest influence • Scope of incumbency advantage: • ~90% of congressmen who run are reelected; ~80% of senators • Lack of competitiveness: charges of “permanent Congress” and the call for term limits (overturned by SCOTUS)

37. http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php (Re-election rates 1964-2012)

38. Congressional elections Type of election: Other Factors Coattail effect in decline; elections are largely independent and evidence of decline in party power Party affiliation is still a strong predictor of voter behavior Media, especially important in Senate elections Issues, especially the economy Campaign consultants: increasing importance of and decreasing importance of political parties technology • Incumbent campaigns less competitive (safe seats) • Weak challenger campaigns uncompetitive, but more so than incumbents • Strong challenger campaigns more competitive than both • Open seat campaigns: the most competitive • House or Senate: • Midterm elections: loss of congressional seats for party of president

42. Nomination Phase: II. Presidential elections: path to the presidency • Prior to nomination phase, there is the “invisible primary” or “The Great Mentioner” • Time and money to build a campaign • Individual can give $2,600 (adjusted for inflation 2013-14 election cycle); PACs $5,000 • Federal matching grants to pay for primary: must raise $5,000 in 20 states to qualify • Organization of large paid staff, volunteers, advisers on issues • Strategy and themes: • Incumbent vs. challenger • Tone • Theme • Timing • Target voter

43. Primary Elections Part of the Progressive reform of the early 20th century designed to weaken parties Types: Closed Used in most states Only registered party members can vote for partisan offices, no crossing of party lines Open: Any voter may get ballot of any party they choose Blanket: Voters can “mix and match” their votes. Voters are not required to affiliate with a political party and may vote for any candidate on the ballot. The candidate from each political party who receives the most votes in the primary advances to the general election. In CA: top two candidates proceed to the general election regardless of party affiliation (effective 2012 – Prop 14) Similar to a run-off election

44. III. Primary vs. general ELECTIONS A. Caucuses: B. Primaries: Other states use presidential primaries as method of sending delegates to national convention. Use of primaries has increased in the last 30 years. “Beauty contest primary:” Delegate selection primary: Importance of NEW HAMPSHIRE: Dems use “superdelegates” (party leaders/office holders) to restore prominence at convention • Some states use conventions method of sending delegates to the national convention • Local caucuses—district convention—state convention—national convention. Each level selects delegates to attend higher level. • Importance of IOWA:

45. National Convention: C. Nominating system • Selection of presidential nominee: • Selection of VP nominee • Chosen by pres nominee and rubber stamped by convention • “balance the ticket” • Development of party platform • Reconciliation and unification of party by end of convention

46. D. Analysis of nominating system: Pro: • Highly participatory: caucuses, primaries, conventions • Testing ground-weeds out the weaker candidates Con: • Low turnout rates • Too lengthy • Does not test candidates for qualities necessary as president; media game • Front-loading adversely affects states with later primaries • Voters in primaries tend to be better educated and more affluent than those in general elections • Delegates at caucuses and convention tend to be unrepresentative: more ideological, more activist, more education, less moderate, much more wealthy

47. FRQ Practice • Nominees for the presidency of the two major parties are chosen by delegates at national conventions. How these delegates are chosen varies across states and between the political parties. • Define each of the following methods used by states to choose delegates to party conventions. • • Open primary • • Caucus • b. Republican Party rules permit winner-take-all primaries. Describe one consequence of this rule for the Republican nomination process. • c. The Democratic Party has used superdelegates in the presidential nominating process since 1984. Explain why the use of superdelegates increases the influence of party leaders in the Democratic nomination process. • d. Explain why a candidate’s strategy to win the nomination is often different from the strategy developed to win the general election.

48. E. Path to the presidency • Fall campaign: • Campaign issues: • Position issues • Valence issues • Garnering support • TV: spots and visuals • Debates • Internet/direct mail • Election day • Tuesday after first Monday in November in every fourth year • Meeting of electors • First Monday after the second Wednesday in December • Formal election • January 6, joint session of Congress formally counts electoral votes and declares winner • Inauguration day: January 20

49. The electoral college Rationale: Allotment of electoral votes to states: Each state has as many electoral votes as it has members of Congress (minimum of 3) D.C. has 3 votes (23rd Amendment) 538 electoral votes CA-largest at 55 Each party develops a slate of electors prior to election (loyal party members) • Poor communication • Desire to have the “best” people select the president • Compromise between direct election and congressional election

50. Winning of electoral votes: Winning the election: Majority of e.v. (270) to win If no candidate has majority: House selects President from among top 3 candidates Each state has 1 vote Senate selects VP from among top 2 candidates Done in 1800 and 1824 • Winner-take-all: Candidate with most popular votes (only a plurality is needed) wins all of that state’s electoral votes. • Concentration of campaigning in large, competitive states. • Electors meet in respective state capitals in December to cast ballots